Top 5 High-Impact Economic Events This Week (December 15–19, 2025)

This week brings a packed economic calendar, with critical U.S. inflation data, labor market reports, and major central bank decisions that are likely to drive significant volatility across financial markets. Below are the five most impactful events, listed chronologically.

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls & Labor Market Data – Tuesday, December 16, 13:30 UTC

• Key indicators released:
  • Nonfarm Payrolls: +120K (vs. forecast +119K)
  • Unemployment Rate: 4.3% (vs. 4.4%)
  • Average Hourly Earnings m/m: +0.4% (vs. +0.2%)
  • Core Retail Sales m/m: +0.1% (vs. +0.3%)

Why it matters:
A stronger-than-expected jobs report—especially with wage growth accelerating—signals persistent inflationary pressure. This could delay expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in early 2026, supporting the U.S. dollar and pressuring equities and bonds.

 U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Thursday, December 18, 13:30 UTC

• Key indicators released:
  • CPI y/y: +2.8% (vs. +3.0%)
  • Core CPI m/m: +0.1% (vs. +0.2%)
  • CPI m/m: +0.4% (vs. +0.3%)

Why it matters:
While headline inflation cooled slightly below expectations, the monthly CPI came in hotter. The mixed signals may create uncertainty about the Fed’s path. Markets will scrutinize core measures closely, as they are considered more reliable inflation gauges.

ECB Interest Rate & Monetary Policy – Thursday, December 18, 13:15–15:15 UTC

• Decisions:
  • ECB Deposit Rate: held at 2.00%
  • Main Refinancing Rate: held at 2.15%
• Followed by: Press Conference (13:45) and President Lagarde’s Speech (15:15)

Why it matters:
The ECB is widely expected to hold rates steady amid slowing eurozone inflation. However, any dovish shift in tone—especially regarding future cuts—could weaken the euro and boost European equities.

Bank of England (BoE) Rate Decision – Thursday, December 18, 12:00 UTC

• Decision: Rate held at 4.00%

Why it matters:
With UK inflation moderating but still above target, the BoE remains cautious. A hold was expected, but forward guidance will be key. Any hint of a 2026 rate cut could trigger GBP volatility.

 U.S. Core PCE Price Index – Friday, December 19, 15:00 UTC

• Key data:
  • Core PCE m/m: +0.2% (as expected)
  • Core PCE y/y: +2.7% (vs. +2.8%)

Why it matters:
As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE is pivotal. The slight undershoot in the annual figure may reinforce expectations of a March 2026 rate cut, potentially weakening the dollar and lifting risk assets.

This week offers a high-stakes cocktail of labor, inflation, and central bank signals. Traders should brace for elevated volatility—particularly around USD, EUR, and GBP pairs—and closely monitor central bank rhetoric for shifts in 2026 policy expectations.

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