Technical Analysis - EURUSD to break main support levels for ranging price to be inside Ichimoku kumo

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.23 12:56

EUR/USD forecast for the week of May 25, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)

The EUR/USD pair broke down during the course of the week, testing the 1.10 level for support. That’s basically where we close for the week, and this is an area that we should see support at. However, we are closing at the very bottom of the range, and that of course is a very bearish sign. This is a simple set up for us: we believe that if we get a daily close below the 1.10 handle, that the market should continue down to roughly 1.05 or so. On the other hand, if we get a supportive daily candle near the 1.10 level, we believe that the market will then bounce towards the 1.15 handle. With that being said, daily charts will probably be where you need to look for setups.

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.24 05:39

A Fundamental Push for Key EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY Levels? (based on dailyfx article)

• US Dollar Forecast– US Dollar Recovery Fighting Liquidity, Growth Headwinds
• Japanese Yen Forecast – USDJPY Stands at 2015 High With Fed and BoJ Policy in the Forefront
• Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Recovery May Resume After US-Linked Interlude
• Gold Forecast – Gold Outlook Remains Supportive Above 1200- All Eyes on FOMC, GDP

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.24 15:25

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook (based on actionforex article)

EUR/USD's fall last week and suggests that rebound from 1.0461 could have completed at 1.1466 already, well below. 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461 at 1.1810. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for retesting 1.0461/0520 support zone. Meanwhile, above 1.1207 minor resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 1.1466.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 1.6039 long term top is viewed as a corrective pattern. Fall from 1.3993 is the third leg of such pattern. A medium term bottom is in place at 1.0461, ahead of 100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.3993 at 1.0283. Some consolidations could be seen. But after all, break of 1.2042 support turned resistance is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish. We'd still favor another fall to extend the down trend.

In the long term picture, price actions from 1.6039 (2008 high) is viewed as a corrective move with fall from 1.3993 as the first leg. We'll start to look for bottoming signal below 100% projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.3993 at 1.0283. However, sustained trading below 1.0283 will open up the case for a new low below 0.8223.

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.25 18:34

Yellen's Words Fuels The Greenback's Rise (based on forbes article)

"The U.S. dollar hit a two-month high against the yen and is holding firm against other Group of 10 currencies on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen suggested late last week the central bank will raise interest rates in 2015."

"With U.S. markets and most of Europe on holiday today, the thinned trading conditions will have most investors looking ahead to tomorrow’s forward-looking U.S. durables data, and Friday’s release of second estimate of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) as key fundamental touch points for the dollar’s direction. Obviously, any news on Greece or of a potential Grexit will have an immediate impact on the EUR, similar to what happened in the overnight session in Asia."

"Yellen argued that the slowdown in first-quarter GDP growth was “largely” due to temporary factors, such as the record cold weather and a port dispute. The market took “largely” as being more important or convincing than Yellen’s “in part” verbiage that was used in the most recent FOMC statement (there will be a rebound in growth in the second quarter)."

"Yellen repeated her assessment that “it will be appropriate at some point this year to take the initial step to raise the federal funds target.” Not a very transparent statement on timing, but if you include rebounding economic growth, plus a pickup in consumer prices that’s supported by wage growth, you have a fixed-income market now pricing in a rate hike no later than September."

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.26 06:12

Sell AUD/USD At S/T Resistance; Sell EUR/USD At Breakout Zone - Credit Suisse (based on efxnews article)

Credit Suisse looked at the technical setups for AUD/USD, and EUR/USD where CS is bearish near-term, and recommends selling limit-orders on approaching specific technical levels.

AUDUSD

Starting with AUD/USD, CS notes that the immediate focus turns towards a cluster of supports at .7790/74.

"AUDUSD has reversed its early gains, completing a bearish “outside” session to weigh on a cluster of supports at .7790/74 - the early May low, 61.8% retracement and 55-day average support – where we would expect fresh buying to show here". "A direct break lower though can trigger further selling for .7683 initially, followed by a stronger support from the range lows at .7555/33. Near-term resistance moves lower to .7861/67, followed by .7936. Above can target .7976/86 and then .8030/63 which we look to ideally cap".

CS runs a limit order to sell AUD/USD at 0.7855, targeting a move to 0.7605.

EURUSD

"We look for further weakness here to test the 55-day average at 1.0918 at first, through which can aim at the 61.8% retracement level at 1.0849/43, followed by the low end of the former range at 1.0660/14". "Near-term resistance moves to 1.1062, then 1.1101 with price and “neckline” resistance at 1.1208/48 expected to cap to keep the trend lower. Strategy: Flat. Sell at 1.1060, stop above 1.1248 for 1.0525".

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.26 09:26

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Sellers Overcome 1.10 Figure (based on dailyfx article)

• Support: 1.0934, 1.0808, 1.0653
• Resistance:1.1059, 1.1214, 1.1310

The Euro turned lower against the US Dollar as expected after negative RSI divergence pointed to fading upside momentum. Near-term support is at 1.0934, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that exposing the 61.8% level at 1.0808. Alternatively, a reversal above the 38.2% Fib at 1.1059 clears the way for a test of the 23.6% expansion at 1.1214.

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.26 20:04

Tech Setups For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD - Barclays (adapted from efxnews article)

The following are the latest technical setups for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at Barclays Capital.

EUR/USD: Our bearish view was encouraged by the close below former range highs near 1.1055. We are looking for a move lower towards targets near 1.0850 and then the 1.0660 area. Our greater targets are towards 1.0460. 1.1055 reverts to resistance.

USD/JPY: The break above the 122.05 highs confirms our bullish view and completion of the six-month range trade. Our greater upside targets are in the 124.15 area.

GBP/USD: Last Friday’s bearish engulfing candle and the subsequent move through 1.5445 signals a squeeze lower towards our targets near 1.5335. Breaking below there would signal deeper setback towards 1.5130, the 50-dma.

AUD/USD: Last week’s bearish engulfing candle encourages our bearish view. A close below our initial downside targets near 0.7790 would signal lower towards 0.7680.