The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may spark a bearish reaction in
EUR/USD as market participants expected another 230K rise in employment
paired with an uptick in wage growth.
Why Is This Event Important:
A batch of positive developments may spark another near-term rally in the greenback especially as a growing number of Fed officials show a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy in 2015.
However, the employment report may disappoint amid the ongoing slack in the labor market, and the greenback may face a larger correction over the near-term as a weaker-than-expected NFP print drags on interest rate expectations.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: Strong Job/Wage Growth Boosts Interest Rate Expectations
- Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
- If market reaction favors a long dollar position, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
- Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
- Resistance: 1.2600 pivot to 1.2610 (61.8% expansion)
- Support: 1.2280 (100% expansion) to 1.2290 (38.2% expansion)
|Period||Data Released||Estimate||Actual||Pips Change|
(1 Hour post event )
(End of Day post event)
|OCT 2014||11/07/2014 13:30 GMT||235K||214K||+21||+66|
October 2014 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
EURUSD M5: 83 pips pips range price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
GBPUSD M5: 70 pips range price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
USDCAD M5: 99 pips price range movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event