Trading News Events: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

USDCHF, M5, 2013.08.02

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

nfp

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, M5, 2013.08.02

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

nfp 1

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Non-Farm Employment Strategy

newdigital, 2013.11.08 14:35

NFP trading for now :

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Non-Farm Employment Strategy

newdigital, 2013.11.08 14:37

All 3 trades were closed so just one trade for USDJPY is open now :

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2014.12.05 16:29

Forex Weekly Outlook December 8-12

Rate decision in New Zealand and in Switzerland, US Retail sales, Unemployment claims, Producer prices and Consumer sentiment are the major events for this week. Here is an outlook on the highlights coming our way.

Last week, Non-Farm Payrolls posted a superb job gain of 321,000 in November. The release also showed a 0.4% rise in wages. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.8%. This was the biggest jobs gain since 2012, far above average of 224,000 a month over the past year. Economists expected an expansion of 231,000 positions. This excellent release demonstrating the ongoing improvement in the job market cannot go unnoticed. The Fed will have to reexamine its zero rates policy in the coming weeks.

1. NZ Rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00. New Zealand’s central bank maintained its Cash rate in September at 3.50%, implying they will keep monetary policy on hold until the end of next year, contrasting the U.S. Federal Reserve plans of raising rates. Low inflation and slowing global growth were the reasons behind the decision to keep rates unchanged. Rates are expected to remain unchanged.
2. Australian Employment data: Thursday, 0:30. Australia’s job market added 24,100 jobs in October. Full-time positions expanded by 33,400 while part-time roles declined by 9,400. The jobless rate remained unchanged at a 12-year high of 6.2%, suggesting a weaker labor market amid the economy’s transition from mining-driven growth. The participation rate edged up to a seasonally adjusted 64.6% compared to 64.5% in the previous month. These figures indicate a modest improvement and a positive trend. Australia is expected to gain 15,200 jobs in November, while the unemployment rate is predicted to reach 6.3%.
3. Switzerland rate decision: Thursday, 8:30. The Swiss National Bank kept its Libor rate at the minimum low of 0.0% to 0.25%, in line with market prediction. SNB policymakers also issued updated forecasts for growth and inflation revealing a moderate pickup in the coming months. The Central Bank expects GDP growth to reach 2% in 2015. Inflation is expected to reach 2% in 2014 and only 0.6% in 2015. Libor rate is expected to stay unchanged this time.
4. US retail sales: Thursday, 13:30. U.S. consumers increased their spending in October, reaching $444.5 billion, on a seasonally adjusted basis, rising 0.3% compared to September’s decline of 0.3%. Economists expected a smaller rise of 0.2%. Consumers were more optimistic and made more purchases. October’s core sales, excluding autos, edged up 0.3% from a 0.2% decline in September. Analysts predicted a 0.2% gain in October. Falling gasoline prices helped to increase domestic expenditures leading to stronger holiday sales. Retail sales are expected to gain 0.3% in November while core sales are predicted to rise 0.1 %.
5. US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell back below the 300,000 line last week, indicating continued growth in the labor market. He reading was broadly in line with market forecast. The four-week average increased by 4750 to 299,000 still near post-recession low. However, the sharp decline could be attributed to Thanksgiving holiday. The number of new unemployment claims is expected to be 299,000 this time.
6. US PPI: Friday, 13:30. The producer price index gained 0.2% in October amid a pickup in inflation. Prices for many products increased despite a decline in wholesale gas costs. Automakers contributed to inflation by introducing 2015 car models. Beef prices jumped 6% and pork prices surged 8.1%. Meanwhile, core PPI excluding the volatile categories of food and energy, increased 0.4%. However, the rise in PPI does not reflect a trend, since the ongoing declines in fuel prices boost sales boosting inflation. The producer price index is predicted to fall 0.1% in November.
7. US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:55. U.S. consumer sentiment edged up in November to a more than seven-year high of 89.4 points, compared to 86.4 posted in September. Economists predicted a reading of 87.3. The ongoing growth in the employment market and the sharp drop in gasoline prices, boosted sentiment. Current economic conditions increased to 103.0 from 98.3 beating forecast of 98.8. Consumer expectations increased to 80.6 from 79.6, exceeding the 80.2 forecast. However, expectations for income gains remained low despite rising and came in below inflation forecasts. One-year inflation expectation declined to 2.6% from 2.9%, while its five-year inflation outlook was also at 2.6%. U.S. consumer sentiment is expected to improve further to 89.6 this time.

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2014.12.07 12:23

EUR/USD trading forecast for Monday (based on binarytribune article)

Friday’s trade saw EUR/USD within the range of 1.2271-1.2393. The daily low has also been the lowest level since August 16th 2012. The pair closed at 1.2379, gaining 0.01% on a daily basis, while losing 0.58% for the whole week.

Fundamentals

Euro zone German industrial output

Germany’s seasonally adjusted index of industrial production probably fell 0.2% in October compared to a month ago, according to market expectations, following a 1.4% expansion in September. Annualized industrial output contracted 0.1% in September, after another 1.9% decline in August. The index reflects the change in overall inflation-adjusted value of output in sectors such as manufacturing, mining and utilities. In case industrial output shrank more than anticipated, this would mount selling pressure on the euro. Destatis is to publish the official data at 7:00 GMT on Monday.

Sentix Investor Sentiment

Confidence among investors in the Euro zone probably continued to worsen during the current month, with the corresponding index coming in at a reading of -13.5. In November it stood at -11.87. If so, this would be the fourth consecutive month, during which the gauge occupied negative territory. The index is based on results from the SENTIX survey, one of the most prominent surveys, reflecting investors’ opinion in Germany. It encompasses 2 800 respondents, with 510 of them being institutional investors. Respondents present their expectations regarding ten different markets for a period of one and six months. Readings above zero indicate that respondents were predominantly optimistic, while readings below zero show pessimism. Lower-than-expected readings would have a bearish effect on the common currency. The official index value is due out at 9:30 GMT.

ECB Draghi remarks

At the press conference on Thursday European Central Bank President Mario Draghi noted that bank policy makers would wait until early next year in order to determine whether Euro area economy is in need of additional monetary stimulus.

ECB Governing Council expects to take into consideration a proposal to widen the bank’s asset purchases, meaning the inclusion of sovereign debt, at the upcoming policy meeting on January 22nd, Bloomberg reported.
”We’re looking for the euro to go down to $1.07 by the end of 2015,” Marvin Barth, head of European foreign-exchange strategy at Barclays Plc in London, said on Friday in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ”You’ve reached a tipping point in people’s expectations to where the euro is likely to go. The ECB is providing a significant amount of accommodation in conjunction with negative deposit rates.”

Pivot Points

The central pivot point for the pair is at 1.2348. In case EUR/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.2424, it will probably continue up to test 1.2470. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.2546.

If EUR/USD manages to breach the first key support at 1.2302, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.2226. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.2180.

The mid-Pivot levels for Monday are as follows: M1 – 1.2203, M2 – 1.2264, M3 – 1.2325, M4 – 1.2386, M5 – 1.2447, M6 – 1.2508.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.2385. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.2500, R2 – 1.2620, R3 – 1.2735. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.2265, S2 – 1.2150, S3 – 1.2030.

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2014.12.08 05:38

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Wedge Pattern Hints at Bounce (based on dailyfx article)

• EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 1.2710
• Support: 1.2279, 1.2213, 1.1974
• Resistance:1.2455, 1.2529, 1.2683

The Euro may be preparing to rebound against the US Dollar as prices carve out a bullish Falling Wedge chart formation. A daily close above the 1.2360-86 area marked by the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion and the November 21 close exposes the wedge top at 1.2440. Alternatively, a reversal below the 1.2213-38 zone (wedge floor, 23.6% level) opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% Fib at 1.1974.

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Something Interesting in Financial Video December 2014

newdigital, 2014.12.09 06:06

EUR/USD slumps, USD/JPY jumps, Crude slides as USD advances post NFP

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2014.12.10 06:19

Video: Another Fundamental Theme Threatens to Drive Euro Lower (based on dailyfx article)

• There are three venues of major concern for the Euro: ECB stimulus, capital flight and a return to crisis
• To this point, the central bank's vows to leverage monetary policy have strong armed the currency lower
• Turmoil in Greece however has set in motion the existing pieces of a return to regional financial fears
  

Can EURUSD break below 1.2200 before the year closes? The natural liquidity drain expected of the final weeks of the trading year works against such significant change. However, a strong fundamental driver can overwhelm the stand often taken by the remaining market participants and even draw those on vacation back to their terminals. For the Euro, there are multiple avenues of concern. The ECB's stimulus efforts have proven a key driver to this point, but the decision on a full-scale QE program seems to have been pushed back to 2015. However, two other lesser-appreciated critical themes are starting to stir. The implications of capital flight in the event of global risk aversion is still a difficult threshold to cross. Alternatively, a revived Euro-area financial fear between rising bond yields, struggling economies and austerity standoffs looks to be unfolding. In today's Strategy Video, we take a look at the Euro and what it would take to catalyze the next big leg for the currency...even before year end.