Trading News Events: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

Trading News Events: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

5 December 2014, 10:21
Sergey Golubev

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may spark a bearish reaction in EUR/USD as market participants expected another 230K rise in employment paired with an uptick in wage growth.

What’s Expected:

Why Is This Event Important:

A batch of positive developments may spark another near-term rally in the greenback especially as a growing number of Fed officials show a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy in 2015.

However, the employment report may disappoint amid the ongoing slack in the labor market, and the greenback may face a larger correction over the near-term as a weaker-than-expected NFP print drags on interest rate expectations.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: Strong Job/Wage Growth Boosts Interest Rate Expectations

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
  • If market reaction favors a long dollar position, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: NFP Report Falls Short of Market Forecasts
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The Release

  • Resistance: 1.2600 pivot to 1.2610 (61.8% expansion)
  • Support: 1.2280 (100% expansion) to 1.2290 (38.2% expansion)
Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month

PeriodData ReleasedEstimateActualPips Change
(1 Hour post event )
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
OCT 2014 11/07/2014 13:30 GMT 235K 214K +21 +66

October 2014 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

EURUSD M5: 83 pips pips range price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event

GBPUSD M5: 70 pips range price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event

USDCAD M5: 99 pips price range movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event

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