Aletheia — Test Phase v1 Wrap-Up, Web App Preview, and v2 Kick-Off

Hi everyone,
A quick update on Aletheia, my AI-driven research & trading project.

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✅ Test Phase v1 — Summary

• Period: early July → 3 Aug 2025 (~1.5 months).

• Risk model: fixed 0.5% per trade.

• Performance: +$2,274.02 net (≈ +4.55% on 50k). Profit factor 2.98, win rate 65% (13/20), largest win $889.92, largest loss −$256.93.

• Drawdown: Max balance DD 0.67% (−$339.55).

• Positioning: 20 shorts, 0 longs during v1.

• End snapshot: Balance $52,274.02, Equity $52,803.14 at report time.

During the first month Aletheia climbed to roughly +5%, then a brief losing cluster appeared. I paused v1 and updated the agent to filter the reasoning patterns linked to those losses.

Full Trade History and Account reports are attached so you can audit every ticket.

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🧭 Aletheia Web App — Public Preview
Explore how Aletheia turns global news into reasoned hypotheses and curated, broker-agnostic trade setups.

🧩 How the agent works (Home)

A visual, end-to-end flow of the pipeline with guardrails:

• Always-on monitor → enrich → hypothesis tree → evidence engine → position synthesis → execution & governance.
• Gatekeeper checks at key handoffs; clear status and outcomes.

📊 Dashboard

Live situational awareness in one place:

• KPIs & trendlines (win/loss, RR distribution, exposure, setup throughput).
• Global Impact Map (country-level choropleth by mentions, zoom/hover, top regions).
• Coverage by sectors, themes, regions; recent notable events and results.

🧠 Event Explorer

Drill from news events to full reasoning trails.

• Filters: Quick (Today / This week / This month) and Advanced (date range, themes, regions, sectors, text search, outcomes).
• Event page: context & expansion (entities/regions/sectors/themes), progress, decisions, branch & position counts.
• Branch page: hypothesis details, evidence & citation trail, gatekeeper verdicts, direction & latency, plus generated positions.

💹 Trade Setup Explorer

Browse all setups and jump straight to the reasoning that produced them.

• Filters: date, symbol(s), direction, status (open/closed/expired/discarded), result labels (e.g., tp2_hit , sl_hit ).
• Inline charts and compact cards (thesis, entries/targets/stops, risk model, current status).
• One-click open to the originating event or branch trail.

⚡ Quick Actions

Three cards to get moving fast:

• Dashboard → metrics & map
• Event Explorer → events → branches → evidence
• Trade Setups → browse & audit outcomes

👉 Web App: https://aletheia.giize.com

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🔍 4 Example Setups From v1

Below are four real tickets from v1. Click the trail link to inspect the full reasoning in the app.

🟢 CRWD (Crowdstrike Holdings Inc) - 📍 Entry: 450.62 | TP1: 430.40 ✅ TP2: 410.18 ✅ 

Catalyst: Palo Alto Networks is in talks to acquire CyberArk in a deal valued at approximately $20 billion, potentially reshaping the cybersecurity market.

Reasoning trail: https://aletheia.giize.com/Event_Explorer?event=9594&branch=26994

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🟢 IFX (Infineon Technologies AG) - 📍 Entry: 35.949 | TP1: 34.823 ✅ TP2: 33.697 ✅ 

Catalyst: Intel cancels planned semiconductor fabrication projects in Germany and Poland and consolidates testing and assembly operations in Vietnam and Malaysia.

Reasoning trail: https://aletheia.giize.com/Event_Explorer?event=8483&branch=24067

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🟢 IBE (Iberdrola SA) - 📍 Entry: 15.32 | TP1: 15.69 ✅ TP2: 16.06 ✅ 

Catalyst: Government raises maximum price paid to wind farm developers for electricity.

Reasoning trail: https://aletheia.giize.com/Event_Explorer?event=8384&branch=23805

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🟢 XRT (SPDR S&P Retail ETF) - 📍 Entry: 81.8 | TP1: 80.01 ✅ TP2: 78.22 ✅ 

Catalyst: U.S. companies raised prices for goods and services in July, citing tariffs as a key factor contributing to inflationary pressures.

Reasoning trail: https://aletheia.giize.com/Event_Explorer?event=8392&branch=23833

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🔄 What changed after pausing v1

• New Reasoning Auditor (continuous learning).
  Scans the entire reasoning trail to validate that analyses are grounded in solid evidence. Continuously updated as more setups and outcomes arrive.
  Why it matters: filters out weak, indirect logic and favors direct, causal impact between event → asset.

• Evidence gating tightened (carried forward).
  Stricter source quality & recency checks; patterns linked to v1 losses are down-weighted or blocked.
  Why it matters: reduces speculative, wide narratives slipping into setups.

• Websearch coverage & parsing improved.
  Broader domain support + better parsers increase successful extractions and citation depth.
  Why it matters: more (and cleaner) sources, fewer blind spots.

• Symbol Matcher upgraded.
  Tighter ticker/venue mapping and conflict resolution to cut symbol mismatches.
  Why it matters: improves asset targeting accuracy before orders are formed.

• Targets & RR optimizer (from v1 history).
  Re-tuned target selection using all historical setups: shorter entry→SL, longer entry→TP1/TP2 distances.
  Why it matters: raises average expected R while controlling downside.

• MT5 execution safety (lot-step aware).
  Orders that were too large for broker constraints are now auto-split into smaller tickets so risk per setup remains exact.
  Why it matters: consistent position sizing → more robust live behavior.

• Partial-closure reliability fix.
  Edge cases that failed to trigger TP1/TP2 partials have been corrected; state sync improved.
  Why it matters: predictable profit-taking and cleaner P/L attribution.

• Setup QA pass (carried forward).
  Validator rejects vague or duplicate theses; enforces clarity before anything can become a trade.
  Why it matters: higher-quality setups, fewer noisy entries.

Expected v2 effect: Fewer but higher-conviction trades, tighter risk, clearer audit trails.

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🚀 Test Phase v2 — Starting Now

I’m kicking off v2 with the updated pipeline and the new web app.

Join v2: if you’d like to follow along, review setups, or stress-test reasoning, jump in:

• Discord (official): https://discord.gg/r5j7jNtfBF — live updates, feedback threads, and Q&A.