US Jobs Report August 2025: NFP Miss at +22k, Unemployment 4.3%, Dow Jones Pullback at 45,711

Macro background: why this print matters now

The August payrolls report delivered a major downside surprise: only +22k jobs versus a consensus of +75k. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3%, underscoring the cooling trajectory of the labor market.

July had already shown weak hiring at +73k, and the prior two months (May–June) were revised down by about –258k positions — one of the sharpest two-month downward adjustments outside the pandemic. This reinforced the perception that momentum has stalled.

Labor demand is softening as well. JOLTS openings dropped to 7.18m in July, the lowest in years, echoing the “softer jobs” narrative. ADP earlier in the week also flagged weak private hiring, though historically it’s been a poor predictor of the BLS headline.

Policy angle

With growth and jobs both losing steam, markets were already leaning toward a September rate cut. After today’s miss, a 25bp cut is seen as baseline, and discussion has shifted to whether the Fed might go as far as –50bp.

Recent Fed communication acknowledged that labor strength had probably been overstated. The August release validates that concern, pushing policy expectations firmly toward easing.

The three paths (and what tends to move)

1. Hot surprise — ≥120k payrolls or wages ≥0.4% m/m; UR ≤4.2%

   • USD rallies, front-end yields jump, equities wobble as markets reprice fewer cuts.

   • Narrative: labor not as weak as feared; easing path shallower.

2. In-line — ~75k, wages ~0.3% m/m, UR ~4.3%

   • Initial moves fade, positioning dominates. USD and yields little changed.

   • Narrative: stall speed confirmed; focus shifts to revisions and participation.

3. Cool / downside — ≤30–50k and/or UR ≥4.4% with weak revisions

   • This is today’s scenario: USD lower, yields down, equities bid on dovish policy.

   • Narrative: labor slack building; easing cycle priced more firmly.

What I’ll actually watch beyond the headline

• Revisions: another round of negative adjustments would reinforce the “stall” message.

• Participation & hours worked: small changes can swing aggregate labor income more than the headline.

• Private vs government payrolls: recent weakness has clustered in interest-sensitive and white-collar sectors; diffusion is key.

Trading setups (tactical)

• Bearish USD / risk-on (cool print): today’s playbook worked — fade dollar bounces, ride risk assets higher.

• USD resilience / risk-off (hot print): didn’t materialize, but remains the scenario to prepare for in future releases; sharp reversals back into ranges if jobs and wages surprise on the upside.

Technical view — US30 (Dow Jones futures)

Price action around Friday’s jobs release confirmed the market’s nervous setup. The Dow pushed to a fresh high at 45,750, breaking above the weekly resistance at 45,711 (WR38), but the move quickly faded. The index rolled over, snapping a short-term uptrend line and pulling back into the pivot cluster.

The weekly pivot at 45,471 is now the immediate level to watch. Holding above would suggest a consolidation phase with scope to retest 45,625 and the WR38 zone. A clear break below, however, opens downside targets at 45,375 → 45,250 → 45,229 (WS38).

Momentum indicators confirm the shift in tone: the stochastic oscillator has crossed lower, reinforcing the view that short-term risks are tilted to the downside unless buyers step back in above the pivot.

Release cheat-sheet

• When: Fri Sep 5, 08:30 ET / 14:30 CEST

• Consensus: +75k, UR 4.3%, AHE +0.3% m/m

• Actual: +22k, UR 4.3%, AHE +0.3% m/m

• Revisions: –258k over May–June

• Why it matters: confirms hiring momentum has stalled; strengthens the case for imminent Fed cuts.

This analysis reflects a personal view for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.