Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 204

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.02 08:28

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Retail Sales and 12 pips range price movement

2016-12-01 09:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From official report:

  • "The trend estimate rose 0.4% in October 2016. This follows a rise of 0.4% in September 2016 and a rise of 0.3% in August 2016."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.5% in October 2016. This follows a rise of 0.6% in September 2016 and a rise of 0.6% in August 2016."

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AUD/USD M5: 12 pips range price movement by Australian Retail Sales news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.02 10:32

Trading News Events: Non-Farm Employment Change (adapted from dailyfx)

  • "A 180K rise in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) may fuel the bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback and trigger a pullback in EUR/USD should the report put increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to further normalize monetary policy."
  • "With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) widely anticipated to lift the benchmark interest rate at the December 14 meeting, a further improvement in labor market dynamics may encourage the central bank to implement higher borrowing-costs in 2017 especially as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment.’ However, Chair Janet Yellen and Co. may make further attempts to buy more time as officials warn ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months,’ and the permanent voting-members may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach going into the year ahead as ‘the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run.’"


Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Economy Adds 180K Jobs or More

  • "Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short EUR/USD position."
  • "If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit."
Bearish USD Trade: U.S. NFP Report Disappoints
  • "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD position."
  • "Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction."


Two-hour H2 price broke 200 SMA to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition.

  • If H2 price break 1.0689 resistance level to above on close bar so the price will be started to be reversed back to the bullish market condition.
  • If H2 price breaks 1.0620 support on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels waiting for direction.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.02 18:21

Weekly Outlook for EUR/USD: 2016, December 04 - December 11 (based on the article)


EUR/USD maintained its range as we entered the last month of the year. The ECB meeting is left, right and center this week, but certainly not the only event, in a week that starts with the fallout from the Italian referendum.

  1. Italian Referendum: Sunday. Italians go to the polls to decide on far-reaching changes to the political system, moves that, if approved, are supposed to make the third-largest economy of the euro-zone more governable.
  2. Eurogroup meetings: Monday, with the wider Ecofin on Tuesday. Finance ministers of the 19-country euro area convene to discuss various matters.
  3. Services PMIs: Monday: 8:15 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy, final French figure at 8:50, final German number at 8:55 and the final read for November for the whole euro-zone at 9:00.
  4. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30.
  5. Retail sales: Monday, 10:00.
  6. German Factory Orders: Tuesday, 7:00. A rise of 0.6% is projected.
  7. Retail PMI: Tuesday, 9:10. No significant change is expected now.
  8. GDP: Tuesday, 10:00. 
  9. German Industrial Production: Wednesday, 7:00.
  10. French Trade Balance: Thursday, 6:30. Contrary to Germany, France has a chronic trade deficit.
  11. ECB decision: Thursday: decision at 12:45 and the press conference is at 13:30. The European Central Bank is not expected to change its monetary policy, leaving the main lending rate at 0%, the deposit rate at -0.40% and the QE program at 80 billion euros per month.
  12. German Trade Balance: Wednesday, 7:00. A narrower surplus of 20.8 billion is forecast.
  13. French Industrial Production: Friday.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.03 05:00

Quick Technical Overview - GOLD (XAU/USD): daily bearish to be continuing by 1170/1160 support levels to be broken (adapted from the article)

D1 price is located below 100-day SMA/200-day SMA in the bearish area of the chart by 1170/1160 support levels to be broken for the bearish trend to be continuing.

  • "Gold prices continue to rally from this morning’s low of $1,166.50, as the US Dollar is set to finish the week lower on worse than expected NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) figures. NFP totals for November were expected at 180k, but released modestly lower at 178k. The biggest surprise was October’s totals being revised lower by a reported -19k. Technically if the US Dollar continues to retreat on this data, this may signal a shift in momentum for commodities markets including the price of gold."


  • If the price breaks 1270.08 resistance level on close daily bar to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the ranging bullish market condition will be started.
  • If daily price breaks 1170.11 support level on close bar to below so the bearish trend will be continuing with 1160.63 target to re-enter.
  • If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1270.081170.11
N/A
1160.63

Trend:

D1 - bearish

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Gold is Reaching at 1270

Sergey Golubev, 2013.07.01 21:04

How can we know: correction, or bullish etc (in case of using indicator for example)?

well ... let's take AbsoluteStrength indicator from MT5 CodeBase.

bullish (Bull market) :

bearish (Bear market) :

ranging (choppy market - means: buy and sell on the same time) :


flat (sideways market - means: no buy and no sell) :

correction :

correction in a bear market (Bear Market Rally) :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.07 02:05

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Gross Domestic Product and 49 pips range price movement

2016-12-07 00:30 GMT | [AUD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report:

  • "The Australian economy declined by 0.5% in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms in the September quarter."

==========

AUD/USD M5: 49 pips range price movement by Australian Gross Domestic Product news event

 


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Muhammad Syamil Bin Abdullah, 2016.12.07 09:29

More Downwards Pressure ON British Pound

ON the 4H chart, we have got a butterfly bearish sell signal which witness the GBPUSD have dropped about 150pips. Attention will be focus on fibo level 50% and 61.8% aimed for support level, also for break through if the exchange should continue the current trend.


IN the mean time some important GBP news coming up :



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Just some theory to remind :

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USDJPY Technical Analysis 23.06 - 30.06 : Rally Finishing to Ranging

Sergey Golubev, 2013.06.27 12:07

Well ... what I am explaining here by text and charts - it is understandable for traders. But there are traders and coders on the forum. And I think we all know that they are using different "forex english" in some cases. So, I am just translating some terms/words I am using for technical Ichimoku analysis onto "coding english" language :) :

  1. Tenkan Sen - moving average of the highest high and lowest low over the last 9 trading days. (Highest high + Lowest low) / 2 over the last 9 trading days
  2. Kijun Sen - moving average of the highest high and lowest low over the last 26 trading days. (Highest high + Lowest low) / 2 over the last 26 trading days.
  3. Senkou Span A - the average of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, plotted 26 days ahead. (Tenkan Sen + Kijun Sen) / 2 plotted 26 days ahead
  4. Senkou Span B - the average of the highest high and lowest low over the last 52 days, plotted 26 days ahead. (Highest high + Lowest low) / 2 over the last 52 trading days plotted 26 days ahead.
  5. Chikou Span - the closing price plotted 26 days behind.

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Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

Sergey Golubev, 2013.06.28 18:00

Hi zeno,

as to lower timeframe ... the default settings of Ichimoku is 9/26/52, right? But it is mainly for higher timeframe (started from H1 for example). For lower timeframe - there are 2 kinds of settings:

  • 9/26/52 as default one and/or
  • 72/144/288

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Besides, there are many signals of Ichimoku indicator to open the trades. I know about 6 signals (but it is much more signals in combination with each other):

  • Tenkan Sen / Kijun Sen Cross - very weak signal but it is coming as the first one ... but it may be a lot of false signals
  • price crossing Kijun Sen - more strong signal
  • price crossing Sinkou Span A line (Kumo Breakout)
  • price crossing Sinkou Span B line (Kumo Breakout)
  • Senkou Span A crossing the Senkou Span B (trend reversal)
  • Chikou Span crossing historical price - it is most strong signal for Ichimoku but it is lagging on timeframes started with H1, and not lagging for lower timeframes.

The combination of all those 6 signals = Ichimoku indicator.

So, the request about alert ... it is the request to create alet for all those signals with combination with each other? if yes so it is big project ... I do not have the credits in my profile for all those alerts (which may be - more than 100 different variations)  :) ... if you are talking about some particular signal so - it may be possible to make alert.

I am mostly using on the thread just one signal : Chikou Span crossing historical price. So, which signal to be alert?

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Indicator for MT5 is on this post with alerts and arrows.