Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 203

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.30 07:52

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ANZ Business Confidence and 14 pips range price movement

2016-11-30 00:00 GMT | [NZD - ANZ Business Confidence]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - ANZ Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, retailers, agricultural firms, and service providers.

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From official report:


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NZD/USD M5: 14 pips range price movement by ANZ Business Confidence news event

 


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.30 14:02

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speaks and 11 pips range price movement

2016-11-30 12:45 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = Speech about the future of Europe at the University of Deusto Business School, in Madrid.

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From official report:

  • "The euro area faces a significant demographic challenge in the coming decades. Reversing the decline in productivity growth and improving labour market outcomes are both required to meet this challenge. Without concerted effort on structural reforms, per capita income growth in the euro area is likely to stagnate, and may even decline."
  • "The ECB’s current monetary policy settings are designed to support activity to bring inflation back to our objective of close to, but below, 2% over the medium term. In doing so, we are lowering the risk that the current low rates of growth become entrenched, but we alone cannot eliminate that risk. Monetary policy is providing support and space for governments to carry out necessary structural reforms. It is up to euro area governments to act, individually at national level as well as jointly at European level."

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EUR/USD M5: 11 pips range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speaks news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.30 15:07

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Gross Domestic Product and 36 pips range price movement

2016-11-30 13:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

  • "Real gross domestic product rose for the fourth consecutive month in September, growing 0.3%. Higher output in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector was the major contributor to the increase."
  • "Goods-producing industries grew by 1.1% as all sectors increased, led by mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction."

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USD/CAD M5: 36 pips range price movement by Canada Gross Domestic Product news event

 


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.30 16:57

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day branging bullish, daily bullish breakout

2016-11-30 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.9 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: ranging bullish. The price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA for the ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels waiting for the direction of the primary bullish trend to be resumed or the secondary correction to be started.

If the price breaks 51.11 resistance level so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 50.85 support so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.



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Crude Oil Daily: bullish breakout to be started. The price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA for the bullish trend by 50.82 resistance level to be breaking to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.


If daily price breaks 50.82 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 46.56 support level to below on close daily bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.01 08:01

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Private Capital Expenditure and 17 pips range price movement

2016-12-01 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Private Capital Expenditure]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Private Capital Expenditure] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of new capital expenditures made by private businesses.

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From official report:

  • "The trend volume estimate for total new capital expenditure fell by 4.9% in the September quarter 2016 while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell by 4.0%."
  • "The trend volume estimate for equipment, plant and machinery rose by 1.0% in the September quarter 2016 while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell by 1.9%."

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AUD/USD M5: 17 pips range price movement by Australia Private Capital Expenditure news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.01 08:42

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Manufacturing PMI and 103 pips range price movement

2016-12-01 01:00 GMT | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From steelorbis article:

  • "China’s manufacturing PMI increases to 51.7 percent in November Thursday, 01 December 2016."
  • "The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China’s manufacturing sector was at 51.7 percent in November this year, up 0.5 percentage points compared to October, as announced by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on December 1."

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USD/CNH M5: 103 pips range price movement by China Manufacturing PMI news event



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.01 11:07

Quick Technical Overview - Brent Crude Oil: intra-day bullish to be continuing by 52.63 resistance to be broken; daily bullish breakout to be started  (based on the article)

The intra-day price is located abobe 200 SMA/100 SMA for the bullish market condition: the price is trying to break 52.63 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "Markets never have great expectations going into OPEC meetings, but yesterday’s agreement to cut production starting January of next year came as a surprise. Of course, we knew that was the way that the traffic was headed, but there was no guarantee that it was going to arrive there this week. We’ve seen Brent back above the USD 50pb level, whilst the energy related stocks have also risen, by as much as 5% in some cases. The question is whether this is going to put a floor under the oil price from here. The answer to that could well like with what happens with the global economy in the coming year.
  • "Before then, we have jobs data in the US tomorrow. With a December tightening from the Fed now fully priced in, the volatility of the dollar to this number could well be less than usual. Markets are looking for a 180k gain in headline payrolls, with the rate holding steady at 4.9%. As mentioned yesterday, expectation of fiscal policy under the new administration has been the main driver of the dollar and Fed expectation over the past three weeks, with the current state of the economy coming a distant second.


  • If the price breaks 52.63 resistance level on close H4 bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price breaks 52.40 support on close H4 bar to below so the secondary ranging within the primary bullish trend will be started for the intra-day price movement during the some very short period of time.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
 Support
52.6352.40
53.7149.57
N/A46.95

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.01 11:53

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Manufacturing PMI and 78 pips range price movement

2016-12-01 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report:


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GBP/USD M5: 78 pips range price movement by U.K. Manufacturing PMI news event

 


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.01 15:19

NZD/USD Daily Technicals: ranging around 200-day SMA for direction (based on the article)

D1 price is located near and below 200 SMA waiting for the bearish trend to be resumed or the bullish reversal to be started.

 

  • "The New Zealand Dollar put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern, hinting a turn lower against its US namesake may be ahead after a brief upswing. The setup has emerged after a retest of major trend line support-turned-resistance, seemingly bolstering the case for a bearish scenario."
  • "Near-term support is at 0.7068, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a daily close below that opening the door for a test of the 38.2% level at 0.7005. Alternatively, a move back above the 0.7136-62 area (38.2% Fib retracement, trend line) paves the way for a challenge of the 50% threshold at 0.7187."

If the price breaks 0.7046 support level to below on daily close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 0.7168 resistance level to above so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging waiting for direction of the trend.


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.01 16:25

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/JPY: ISM Purchasing Managers' Index

2016-11-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report:

"The November PMI® registered 53.2 percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the October reading of 51.9 percent. The New Orders Index registered 53 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage point from the October reading of 52.1 percent. The Production Index registered 56 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than the October reading of 54.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 52.3 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the October reading of 52.9 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 49 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the October reading of 47.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 54.5 percent in November, the same reading as in October, indicating higher raw materials prices for the ninth consecutive month. Comments from the panel cite increasing demand, some tightness in the labor market and plans to reduce inventory by the end of the year."

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EUR/USD M5: 21 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events


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USD/CAD M5: 30 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events


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USD/JPY M5: 25 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events