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Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 207

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for Brent Crude Oil

Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.27 08:24

Brent Crude Oil January-March 2017 Forecast: bullish ranging within 53/57 levels waiting for direction

Weekly (W1) price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 57.23 resistance level located far above Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 53.71 support level located in the beginning of the secondary correction to be started. 


Chinkou Span line is located above the price indicating the ranging condition to be continuing in the near future for example.

  • If the price breaks 57.23 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If weekly price breaks 53.71 support level on close bar to below so the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
  • If weekly price breaks 41.49 support level on close bar to below so we may see the bearish reversal to be started with 37.24 level as the nearest bearish target in this case.
  • If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
57.2353.71
N/A
41.49

Trend:

W1 - bullish ranging

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for Bitcoin/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.27 09:03

Bitcoin vs USD January-March 2017 Forecast: key resistance level at 850.15 to be broken for the bullish trend to be continuing

Weekly (W1) price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 850.15 resistance level located far above Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 745.00 support level located in the beginning of the secondary correction to be started. 


Chinkou Span line is located above the price indicating the ranging condition to be continuing in the near future for example.

  • If the price breaks 850.15 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If weekly price breaks 745.00 support level on close bar to below so the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
  • If weekly price breaks 475.75 support level on close bar to below so we may see the bearish reversal to be started.
  • If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
850.15745.00
N/A
475.75

Trend:

W1 - bullish

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.28 06:09

USD/JPY Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging on reversal (based on the article)

H1 price is located near and above SMA with period 200 (200 SMA) for the bouncing from 200 SMA value back to the primary bearish area of the chart. Bearish development retracement pattern is forming by the price for the bearish reversal to be started with 23.6% Fibo level at 117.53 to be crossed to below with 117.36 level as the nearest target to re-enter.

"The Japanese Yen has halted its decline against the USD as 2016 comes to a close. However, since September 21, when the Bank of Japan announced the significance Yield Curve Control policy or YCC, USD/JPY has now risen by as much as ~19.35% and could continue higher into 2017 given a recent message from Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga in a Nikkei News Interview. The interview from Shinzo Abe’s ‘right-hand’ turned focus on the FX market as one the most critical crisis managements for his post as Chief Cabinet Secretaryis the FX market. Specifically, his focus was on creating a stable financial and economic environment for Japanese corporations so they could borrow and grow within a stable environment." 

  • If the price breaks 117.73 resistance level so the bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If price breaks 23.6% Fibo level at 117.53 so the bearish reversal will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
117.73117.53
N/A
117.36


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 117.53 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 117.73 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY: ranging

TREND: waiting for direction

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for Dow Jones Industrial Average

Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.29 07:44

DJIA January-March 2017 Forecast: long-term bullish; resistance level at 19,987 is the key

W1 price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is on testing 19,987 resistance lkevel to above for the primary bullish market condition to be continuing. The price is located within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 19,987 resistance leevel located about Ichimoku cloud in the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 19,225 support level locxated in the beginning of the correction to be started. 
Chinkou Span line is located above the price indicating the ranging condition in the future, Trend Strength indicator is estimating the trend as the primary bullish, and  Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the future trend to be ranging bullish. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line for the bullish trend to be resumed.


  • If the price breaks 19,987 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If weekly price breaks 19,225 support level on close bar to below so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition will be started.
  • If weekly price breaks 17,063 support level on close bar to below so we may see the reversal from the ranging bullish to be primary bearish condition.
  • If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
19,98719,225
N/A17,063

Trend:

W1 - bullish

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for AUD/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.29 14:59

AUD/USD January-March 2017 Forecast: ranging bearish with 0.7144 key support level

W1 price was on the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition: the price broke Ichimoku cloud to below together with key support levels and Senkou Span lines which are the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price was bounced from 0.7144 support level to above for the ranging condition to be started within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 0.7310 resistance level located near and below Senkou Span line in the beginning of the bullish reversal to be started, and
  • 0.7144 support level located in the bearish area of the chart. 
Chinkou Span line is located below the price indicating the ranging bearish condition, Trend Strength indicator is estimating the trend as the primary bearish, and  Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the future trend to be ranging bearish. Tenkan-sen line is near and below Kijun-sen line for the ranging bearish trend to be continuing.

 

  • If the price breaks 0.7310 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the reversal of the weekly price movement from the primary bearish to the ranging bullish market condition will be started.
  • If weekly price breaks 0.7144 support level on close bar to below so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
  • If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
0.73100.7144
0.7524N/A

Trend:

W1 - ranging bearish

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.30 06:06

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Early 2017 Volatility (based on the article)

 

  • "We are now trading at the top of a channel drawn with the same slope as the support that we had been focusing on throughout the 2016 rebound and into 2017 (rising trendline in black on the chart above) drawn from the first higher low off the rebound from the February low. While we remain Bullish due to fundamental and technical factors, there is a rising wedge pattern developing that should warrant attention."
  • "The rising wedge pattern has developed on the recent break into 17-month highs. Per the Daily Sentiment Index as of Wednesday’s close, the Crude market is composed of 75% Bulls, which remains well short of the 85% extreme Bullish sentiment reading that could mean there is a good deal more room to run in the market as 2017 gets underway. However, if the production cuts do not come to pass, it’s possible that the rising wedge could bring about a sharpsell-off that retraces (likely not all) of the recent 28% rally from the mid-November low."


"Should price fail to break the $50/51 support zone, we’ll expect an eventual move to the 2015 high in early 2017. Ichimoku also favors a Bullish continuation move."


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.31 10:06

U.S. Bank Stocks Have Bubble Trouble (based on the article)

"Banks are back. Of all the post-election stock stories, “Buy banks!” is the most popular."


JP Morgan Chase
 


"The largest U.S. bank's stock performance looks like that of a smaller growth company with positive news. The fast rise and the large distances from the 50-day (orange) and 200-day (blue) moving averages are typical "stretch" measures that can act as a drag on a further rise for the time being. Often, such a stock needs to establish a new foundation by backing and filling before it can resume an uptrend."

-----------

JP Morgan Chase: possible daily correction; weekly overbought 

As we see from the chart below, the daily price is on bullish market condition located within the following narrow support/resistance levels:

  • 87.38 resistance located on he border of the daily bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 84.19 support located on the border between the daily correction to be started. 


Weekly price is located far above 200 period SMA in the primary bullish area of chart with 87.38 resistace level to be broken for the bullish trend to be continuing. But Stochastics indicator is estimating the overbought condition, and if the price breaks 77.28 support to below on weekly close bar so we may see the correction to be started for at least half a year in 2017 for example.



Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for USD/CAD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.31 14:21

USD/CAD January-March 2017 Forecast: ranging within Ichimoku cloud for direction

W1 price is located to be inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging market condition within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1.3588 resistance level located near and above Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart, and
  • 1.3079 support level located in the beginning of the bearish trend to be resumed. 
Chinkou Span line is located above the price indicating the ranging condition, Trend Strength indicator is estimating the trend as a bearish, and Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as a ranging. Anyway, non-lagging Tenkan-sen/Kijun-sen signal is for the bullish reversal, and the price is breaking symmetric triangle pattern to above for the open weekly bar for now.


  • If the price breaks 1.3588 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the reversal of the weekly price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
  • If weekly price breaks 1.3079 support level on close bar to below so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
  • If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.35881.3079
N/A1.2763

Trend:

W1 - ranging

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.02 07:49

Key Levels To Watch In The U.S. Dollar (based on the article)

"The chart below shows the former trading range between 92 and 100 in the U.S. Dollar Index. The dollar's break to the upside creates a bullish signal as long as the Dollar Index stays above the 100 support level. A strong break below the 100 level would be necessary to negate the bullish signal. A pullback or re-test of the 100 support level is certainly possible and wouldn't negate the bullish signal provided the Dollar Index doesn't break below the support."



"The long-term U.S. Dollar Index chart shows the former trading range and recent breakout. As long as the Dollar Index holds above the key 100 support, there is very little resistance overhead all the way up to 120, which marked the highs in 2001 and 2002. Due to its history and psychological significance, the 120 level may act like a magnet for the U.S. Dollar Index over the next couple of years."


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.02 07:59

Key Levels To Watch In Euro (based on the article)

"The euro, which trades inversely with the U.S. dollar, is also showing signs of a nascent breakdown from its two year-old trading range. 1.05 is the key support level to watch - if this level is broken convincingly, further downside may be ahead for the euro along with more upside for the U.S. dollar. If the euro breaks back above this level, the bearish signal would be negated."



"The longer-term euro chart shows the former trading range and breakdown in a larger context. If the euro stays below the 1.05 support level, it may try to gun for the long-term price target and support level at .8500 - the 2001 and 2002 lows. Any weakness in the euro would help to support the U.S. dollar."