Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 208

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.02 11:09

EUR/USD January-March 2017 Forecast: bearish ranging with 1.0324 key support level

W1 price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 61.8% Fibo level at 1.1123 located near and below Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line in the beginning of the bullish reversal to be started, and
  • 1.0324 support level located in the beginning of the bearish trend to be resumed. 
Chinkou Span line is below the price indicating the ranging bearish condition, Trend Strength indicator is estimating the trend as a bearish, and Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as a ranging. Anyway. Non-lagging Tenkan-sen/Kijun-sen signal is for the ranging bearish trend to be continuing, and the descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the bearish breakdown to be started in the future..


  • If the price breaks 1.1123 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the reversal of the weekly price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
  • If weekly price breaks 1.0324 support level on close bar to below so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
  • If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.11231.0324
1.1299N/A

Trend:

W1 - ranging bearish

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Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for S&P 500

Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.02 13:33

S&P 500 January-March 2017 Forecast: long-term bullish ranging within the narrow s/r levels for direction

W1 price is located far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within the following narrow support/resistance levels for the bullish trend to be resumed or for the secondary correction to be started:

  • 2,277.52 resistance level located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 2,214.10 support level located in the beginning of the correction to be started. 
Chinkou Span line is located above the price indicating the ranging condition, Trend Strength indicator is estimating the trend as the primary bullish, and Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as the secondary ranging market condition. Tenkan-sen line is near and above Kijun-sen line for the ranging bullish trend.


  • If the price breaks 2,277.52 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If weekly price breaks 2,214.10 support level on close bar to below so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
2,277.522,214.10
N/A2,084.60

Trend:

W1 - bullish

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.03 04:50

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Manufacturing PMI and 90 pips range price movement

2017-01-02 01:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 50.9
  • forecast data is 50.9
  • actual data is 51.9 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report:

  • "The seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – picked up from 50.9 in November to 51.9 at the end of 2016. Although modest overall, the latest reading pointed to the fastest rate of improvement in the health of the sector since January 2013."

==========

USD/CNH M5: 90 pips price movement by Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event

 


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Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for GBP/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.03 07:42

GBP/USD January-March 2017 Forecast: weekly ranging bearish; daily possible bullish reversal

W1 price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within narrow support/resistance levels since the beginning of the November last year with the descending triangle pattern to be formed by the price for the bearish trend to be continuing. By the way, Trend Strength indicator is estimating the trend as a rally to be started, and Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as a ranging to be continuing.

 

If we look at the daily price so the bullish reversal level at 1.2387 is testing by the price to above for the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition. Thus, we may see good daily breakout soon with weekly rally with 1.2772 target for example.

 

  • If the price breaks 1.2772 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the reversal of the weekly price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
  • If weekly price breaks 1.1959 support level on close bar to below so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
  • If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.27721.1959
1.39141.1475

Trend:

W1 - ranging bearish

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.03 17:43

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and S&P 500: ISM Manufacturing PMI

2017-01-03 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report:

"The December PMI® registered 54.7 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the November reading of 53.2 percent. The New Orders Index registered 60.2 percent, an increase of 7.2 percentage points from the November reading of 53 percent. The Production Index registered 60.3 percent, 4.3 percentage points higher than the November reading of 56 percent. The Employment Index registered 53.1 percent, an increase of 0.8 percentage point from the November reading of 52.3 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 47 percent, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the November reading of 49 percent. The Prices Index registered 65.5 percent in December, an increase of 11 percentage points from the November reading of 54.5 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 10th consecutive month. The PMI®, New Orders, Production and Employment Indexes all registered new highs for the year 2016, and the forward-looking comments from the panel are largely positive."

==========

EUR/USD M5: 75 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events


==========

GBP/USD M5: 50 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events


==========

S&P 500: range pips price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events



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forecast on Forex

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.18 13:02

News is different from forecast, and forecast is different from technical analysis.
This is how I understand it:

------

Forecasts. You are following some system which is 'black box' for you and can not be disclosed in public. You just believe in this unknown system/person/trader/coder which is making forecast for you. Forecasts are maijg with no any alternatives, for example: "buy EUR/USD at 1.2440 now/tomorrow at 10 am etc."
It is similar with weather forecast (no one is responsible for false signal for example). There are free forecasts and commercial forecasts.

Technical analysis. The person is using indicators or/and price action to make a technical analysis describing the market condition in the past together with price movement explanation to the future on alternative ways. For example: "if the price breaks this level to above so ...., alternative - if the price this level to below so ...".
In this case - technical analysis is acting as the science which everybody can repeat in MT4/MT5, and you are always having the choice about what to do.
There are free technical analysis and commercial technical analysis.

There are some websites and sources which are publishing the articles with the word 'Forecast' but if you look at those articles so you will understand that it is the technical analysis only.

Analysts (the persons who are providing the technical analysis) consider the forecasts/forecasters as the forex scam (so, basicly they do not like each other).

We do not have forecasts on this part of the forum because it will be consider as an advertisement with commercial promotion anyway (technical analysis and forecasts can not be on the same subforums because of the differences between them: technical analysis is the science, and forecast is commercial or promotional service.

------

I mean - if someone will post some link to the website with the forex forecast/trading signals and so on (and if it will be real forecast without technical analysis) so this your thread will be deleted sorry.


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forecast on Forex

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.18 13:17

But there are more confusion related to forecasts ... On the post above - I described the differences between technical analysis and forecasts.

And there are some differences between forecasts and signal services too. For example, the best way to check forecast/forecaster is to ask him to provide the signals so everybody will see/check the results. But in case of forecasts - it is not very good way because forecasts are making once in a month or once in a week so I think - no one will subscribe to the signals which are trading one time in a month/week just to prove some article/post about "where the price will go to in May" for example ... so ...

Forecasts, signal services and technical analysis are 3 different services: we have just one of them here - signals as a service (and free technical analysis by free indicators from CodeBase here on the forum).


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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.04 05:35

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Nikkei Japan Manufacturing PMI and 51 pips range price movement

2017-01-04 00:30 GMT | [JPY - Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report:

  • "The headline Nikkei Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ IndexTM (PMI)TM is a composite single-figure indicator of manufacturing performance. It is derived from indicators for new orders, output, employment, suppliers’ delivery times and stocks of purchases. Any figure greater than 50.0 indicates overall improvement of sector operating conditions."
  • "The headline PMI posted 52.4 in December, up from 51.3 in November, signalling a sharper improvement in manufacturing conditions in Japan. In fact, the latest reading was the highest since December last year and contributed to the strongest quarterly average since Q4 2015. The higher figure reflected increases in output, new orders and employment."

==========

USD/JPY M5: 51 pips price movement by Nikkei Japan Manufacturing PMI news event


==========

Nikkei 225 Index: pips range price movement by Nikkei Japan Manufacturing PMI news event



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Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD)

Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.04 09:20

XAU/USD January-March 2017 Forecast: bearish ranging to the bear market rally

W1 price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the berish area of the chart. The price broke Ichimoku cloud together with Senkou Span lines to below in the beginning of November lkast year for the breakdown with the bearish reversal. For now, the price is testing support level at 1122.62 to below for the bearish trend to be continuing. By the way, the bullish reversal level is the resistance at 1197.53, and if the price breaks this level to above so the reversal of the weekly price movement from the primary bearish to the ranging bullish trend will be started.

Chinkou Span line is located below the price indicating the secondary rally to be started within the bearish, Trend Strength indicator is estimating the trend as the primary bullish, and Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the future trend to be ranging bearish. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen line for the bearish ranging condition by direction.


  • If the price breaks 1197.53 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the ranging bullish market condition will be started.
  • If weekly price breaks 1122.62 support level on close bar to below so the bearish trend will be resumed.
  • If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1197.531122.62
1337.16N/A

Trend:

W1 - ranging bearish

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.04 18:13

CAC 40 Stalls Under Previous High (based on the article)


 

  • "The CAC40 has stalled under yesterday’s high of 4,929.60, and is currently trading down -0.11% for the session. Top winners for the Index include Accor (+2.23%) and BNP Paribas (+1.36%). Losers for the day include Michelin (-2.30%) and Kering (-1.77%). While there is little European news due out later today, equities traders will be watching for this afternoon’s release of the US FOMC meeting minutes from December. This is scheduled for 19:00 GMT and may have the ability to swing the market."
  • "Technically, the CAC40 remains bullish trading well above its 200 day MVA (simple moving average). If the current bull trend is to continue however, the Index will need to breakout above yesterday’s high of 4,929.60. In this bullish scenario, traders may look for the CAC40 to trade towards the December 2015 high of 4,642.10."