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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.22 05:30
NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Gross Domestic Product and 25 pips range price movement
2016-12-21 21:45 GMT | [NZD - GDP]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
[NZD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.==========
From official report:
"Economic activity, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), grew 1.1 percent in the September 2016 quarter."
NZD/USD M5: 25 pips range price movement by New Zealand Gross Domestic Product news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.22 07:48
Energy's Biggest Winners & Losers In 2016 (based on the article)
1. American Energy Producers
3. Russia and Saudi Arabia
1. Venezuela, Europe and Iraq
The daily price is trending to be above 200-day SMA in the bullish area of the chart for the ranging within 57.23 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed and 53.12 support level for the secondary correction to be started. By the way, the developing retracement bearish pattern is forming by the price for the possible correction to be started in the near future, and descending triangle pattern was formed for the correctional trend for the future as well.
Most likely scenario for the daily price is the following: 53.71 support level is going to be broken to below with 53.12 target to re-enter.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.22 14:57
USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Consumer Price Index and 46 pips range price movement
2016-12-22 13:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.==========
"The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.2% on a year-over-year basis in November, following a 1.5% gain in October."
USD/CAD M5: 46 pips range price movement by Canada Consumer Price Index news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.22 15:14
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and GBP/USD: U.S. Gross Domestic Product2016-12-22 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
"Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2016, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent."
EUR/USD M5: 22 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events
GBP/USD M5: 30 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events
Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.23 06:31
West Texas Intermediate (WTI): What analysts expect from oil prices in 2017 (based on the article)
Bank of America/Merrill Lynch
"Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, for example, sees crude jumping 46% by next June, hitting $69 per barrel. Fueling that outlook is the fact oil and gas investments are down $300 billion, or 41%, since peaking in 2014, which should lead to shrinking supplies. Further, the bank's analysts see the persistently lower prices over the past several years driving healthy demand growth. These two factors could lead to the biggest gap between supply and demand in five years, which could push crude prices higher."
"Goldman Sachs seems to be taking the middle ground. It recently increased its oil price forecast by predicting that WTI crude will rise to $57.50 per barrel by the second quarter, before settling around $55 per barrel in the second half of the year. Analysts at the World Bank, likewise, have a $55 oil price forecast for 2017 due to OPEC's moves to cut output and rebalance the oil market."
By the way, if we look at the weekly price of WTI so it is located below 200 period SMA in the bearish area of the chart.
Bullish reversal point is located near 200 SMA at 71.00 so if the price breaks this level to above - we may see the long-term bullish trend for whole the 2017 for example.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.23 06:42
Credit Suisse forecast for EUR/USD in 2017: core target remains in 1.01 (based on the aricle)
Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.23 13:10
GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Current Account and 32 pips range price movement
2016-12-23 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Current Account]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - Current Account] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods, services,
income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous quarter.==========
"The UK’s current account deficit was £25.5 billion in Quarter 3 (July to
September) 2016, up from a revised deficit of £22.1 billion in Quarter 2
(April to June) 2016. The deficit in Quarter 3 2016 equated to 5.2% of
gross domestic product (GDP) at current market prices, up from 4.6% in
Quarter 2 2016."
GBP/USD M5: 32 pips range price movement by U.K. Current Account news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.23 14:47
USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Gross Domestic Product and 38 pips range price movement
2016-12-23 13:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]
[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.==========
USD/CAD M5: 38 pips range price movement by Canada's Gross Domestic Product news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.24 05:30
What can we expect in 2017? Interview with FXStreet (based on the article)
What emerging trends or issues should traders prepare for in 2017?
"The easy answer is growing impact from politics: Trump’s first year in office, as well as elections in France and later Germany, will keep us busy. This makes central bankers somewhat less important than they used to be. They will no longer be “the only game in town” but will not disappear in the shadows either. In Europe, some fiscal stimulus could replace austerity on an election year and in line with other countries. Britain could also join in. This could be the year when we talk about “inflation lifting its ugly head” more often than worries about deflation which have dominated beforehand. Inflation could come from China rather than from the US."
Which will be the best and worst performing currencies in 2017 and why?
"The US dollar could reverse its gains as the dust settles in after Trump’s inauguration. Like with many politicians, promises are meant to be broken and a Republican Congress is where the buck could stop. The pound could extend its falls as Brexit reality bites in, something that has not happened so far. The winners could be the euro, that may fall early in the year but recover on fiscal stimulus and more mainstream election results. Another winner could be the Australian dollar, which could enjoy Chinese efforts to maintain its growth."
Which under-the-radar currency pair do you expect to make a big move in 2017?
"USD/CAD could make a big move to the upside due to two reasons. The first is oil prices unable to rise and this could weigh on the loonie. Another reason is a lack of US demand due to less stimulus. Both factors could trigger a rate cut. The BOC has already told us that the lower end for rates is -0.50%, a full percentage point under the current level. The Canadian dollar has scope for falls, something that may eventually help the Canadian economy, but not in 2017."
What will you be focused on next year?
"I will be focused on politics and their impact on markets. Central bankers are still important but have somewhat less influence, and they are less exciting than the impact of politics on currencies. This is not limited to the elections but also to policy, which could certainly be on the move."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.24 10:01
US Dollar Q1 2017 Forecast - Dollar Draws on Many Sources to Extend 14-Year High (based on the article)