Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 202

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.25 09:14

Hang Seng Index Pivot Points Analysis: bounced from yearly Central Pivot to below for the bearish trend to be resumed

W1 price was on bearish breakdown since the end of 2015 by breaking Central Pivot to below for the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition. The bearish breakdown was going to be continuing since the Fenruary this year by the local uptrend as the bear market rally to be started: the price broke S1 Pivot at 20,251 to above for the Central Pivot at 24,437 to be tested for the bullish reversal to be started or for the bearish trend to be continuing.

For now, the price was bounced from Central Pivot at 24,437 for the rimary ebarish market condition to be started with 21,903 support level to be tested for the bearish trend to be continuing.


InstrumentS1 Pivot
Yearly PP
R1 Pivot
Hang Seng
20,251 24,437 28,623

Trend:

  • W1 - bearish

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.25 17:39

S&P to record highs on Black Friday (adapted from the article)

The price is continuing with the bullish trend for today by new high to formed at 2.207 resistance to be testing for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "The S&P 500 and the Dow hit record highs on Black Friday, helped by gains in consumer stocks at the start of the crucial holiday shopping season."
  • "Trump's stock market honeymoon continues as the indices push higher this morning, and the focus now shifts to holiday sales," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at First Standard Financial in New York.
  • "The Friday after Thanksgiving is typically an up day, as most people who wanted to sell ahead of a four-day weekend did so during the week, leaving only bargain hunters left in the market,” said Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst at Phoenix Financial Services. “There’s typically an upside bias because of that, but once we get into next week and the sellers return, we could see some softness. "The three indicators I look at—market breadth, sentiment, and valuation—are all in areas where the market typically runs into some headwinds."


If the price breaks 2.207 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If the daily price breaks 2,168 support level to below so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If the price breaks 50.0% Fibo level at 2,118 to below on close bar so we may see the bearish reversal to be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, December: ranging market condition within the bearish area of the chart

Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.26 14:17

The weekly price is on bearish breakdown which was started in the beginning of october this year on the secondary ranging way: the price broke Ichimoku cloud to below to be reversed from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition. For now, the price is on testing 1.0568 support level to below for the Fibo level at 1.0517 as a nearest daily/weekly bearish target.

The price is located within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 50.0% Fibo level at 1.1066 located in the beginning of the weekly bullish reversal to be started, and
  • Fibo level at 1.0517 located far below Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the bearish trend to be resumed.

Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen line of Ichimoku indicator for the primary bearish condition to be continuing, and Chinkou Span line is below the price which is indicating the primary bearish trend in the future for this pair with the good volatility. By the way, Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the future price movement as the ranging bearish so we can expect the ranging market condition in the bearish area of the chart for example.

If W1 price breaks 1.0517 support level to below on close bar so the primary bearish will be continuing.
If weekly price breaks 1.0850 resistance level on close bar so the local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If W1 price breaks 1.1066 resistance level on close weekly bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement to the primary bullish market condition.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1066 for close bar for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.0517 support level on close daily bar for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish
Resistance
Support
1.08501.0568
1.10661.0517

SUMMARY: bearish

TREND: ranging breakdown


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USDCAD Technical Analysis 2016, December: bullish trend to be continuing with 1.3588 level as the nearest bullish weekly target

Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.26 14:54

The weekly price broke Ichimoku cloud to above for the bullish reversal in the end of October this year, and the price is on testing 1.3551 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing with 1.3588 level as the nearest bullish weekly target.

The price is located within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1.3551/1.3588 levels located in the bullish area of the chart, and
  • 38.2% Fibo level at 1.3155 located near and below Senkou Span line in the beginning of the primary bearish trend to be started.

If W1 price breaks 1.3155 support level to below on close bar so the reversal of the weekly price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If weekly price breaks 1.3551 resistance level on close bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing with 1.3588 target to re-enter.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.3551 for close bar for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.3155 support level on close daily bar for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish
Resistance
Support
1.35511.3155
1.35881.3005

SUMMARY: bullish

TREND: ranging


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Some people asked about indicators I am using for my market condition analysis (MT5) so please find indicators and template to download from the following post:

Market condition setup (indicators and template) is here




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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.28 12:34

Weekly Review Fundamentals: Non-Farm Payrolls, GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and OPEC Meetings (based on the article)

EURUSD daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within very narrow s/r levels waiting for the primary bearish trend to be resumed or for the secondary rally to be started.

  • "Some important economic reports are due out later in the week, including the monthly jobs report and new figures about economic growth. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will be in focus as well, with a number of speeches from Fed officials and the central bank's so-called Beige Book."
  • "This might come as a surprise, considering the news flow of the last 11 months. In the U.S., uncertainty concerning the presidential election for much of the year added a headwind to the economy. There has been some risks from overseas as well: slowing growth in commodity-guzzling China, the Brexit vote, the health of the European financial system, an OPEC that seems to be constantly threatening a reduction in production and the ongoing Syrian refuge crisis."
  • "On the Fed, the minutes of the November 2 FOMC meeting showed that members are still leaning towards a December rate hike. However, there were polarizing opinion concerning the amount of labor market slack and the risks plaguing the 2 percent inflation target. The December FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 13-14."




If the daily price breaks 1.0517
support level to below on close bar so the bearish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 1.0657 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging withn the levels waiting for direction.


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.29 09:04

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoC Governor Stephen Poloz Speech and 34 pips price movement

2016-11-29 00:45 GMT | [CAD - BOC Gov Poloz Speaks]

[CAD - BOC Gov Poloz Speaks] = Speech titled "The Role of Services in Canada’s Economy" at the C.D. Howe Institute Annual Benefactors’ Lecture, in Toronto.

==========

From official report:

  • "I strongly believe that the continued expansion of our service sector is pointing the way toward full economic recovery and the return of sustained, natural growth."
  • "The data are limited, but evidence suggests firm creation in this industry is above the average of the rest of the economy. Output has grown by more than 15 per cent since the start of 2011—a faster pace than the rest of the service sector and more than double the pace of the goods sector. In the past five years, the industry has grown by close to $8 billion and now represents more than 3 per cent of our economy. This is the kind of creation that follows the destruction."
  • "Certainly, the concept of an output gap is gradually changing, as services capacity depends mainly on people and skills rather than industrial capacity, while some parts of our old industrial capacity could become redundant in the face of major structural changes. The concept of investment is shifting away from plants and machinery toward human capital. Even the concept of inventories is changing."
  • "The conduct of monetary policy must manage uncertainty as a matter of routine—uncertainty about the economic outlook, about unobservable variables such as potential output, and so on. It is the nature of economics and economic models that we should always express our expectations in probabilistic terms—that is, a number surrounded by a margin of error—and make policy decisions that carefully weigh and manage those risks. In short, monetary policy is not like engineering."

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USD/CAD M5: 34 pips price movement by BoC Governor Stephen Poloz Speech news event

 


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.29 11:21

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: ranging within 1.0518/1.0684 levels.

H4 price is located below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA)  in the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • 1.0684 resistance level located near and below 100 SMA in the secondary rally to be started, and
  • 1.0518 support level located below 100/200 SMA in the primary ebarish trend to be resumed.

If the price breaks 1.0684 level to above so the local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish trend will be started, , and if the price breaks 1.0518 suppoer level to below so the bearish trend will be resumed.


Daily price is located below 100/200 SMA for the bearish market condition with the ranging within 1.0518/1.0684 levels waiting for the bearish trend to be continuing or for the rally to be started.


Anyway, United Overseas Bank is considering the EUR/USD price to be on ranging market condition within the primary bearish trend.

"We just turned neutral on EUR yesterday and there is no change to the view. The current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase, likely within a 1.0550/1.0750 range."

  • If the price will break 1.0684 resistance level on close bar so the local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If price will break 1.0518 support on daily bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
  • If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.29 15:06

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2016-11-29 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official release:


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EUR/USD M5: 30 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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USD/CAD M5: 33 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.29 18:23

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GOLD (XAU/USD) and Dax Index: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence

2016-11-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

==========

From official report:

"The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined in October, increased significantly in November. The Index now stands at 107.1 (1985=100), up from 100.8 in October. The Present Situation Index increased from 123.1 to 130.3, while the Expectations Index improved from 86.0 last month to 91.7."

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EUR/USD M5: 37 pips range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events


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XAU/USD M5: range pips price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events


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Dax Index M5: range pips price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events