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Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for Hang Seng Index (HSI)
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.25 09:14
Hang Seng Index Pivot Points Analysis: bounced from yearly Central Pivot to below for the bearish trend to be resumed
W1 price was on bearish breakdown since the end of 2015 by breaking Central Pivot to below for the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition. The bearish breakdown was going to be continuing since the Fenruary this year by the local uptrend as the bear market rally to be started: the price broke S1 Pivot at 20,251 to above for the Central Pivot at 24,437 to be tested for the bullish reversal to be started or for the bearish trend to be continuing.
For now, the price was bounced from Central Pivot at 24,437 for the rimary ebarish market condition to be started with 21,903 support level to be tested for the bearish trend to be continuing.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.25 17:39
S&P to record highs on Black Friday (adapted from the article)
The price is continuing with the bullish trend for today by new high to formed at 2.207 resistance to be testing for the bullish trend to be continuing.
If the price breaks 2.207 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.If the daily price breaks 2,168 support level to below so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.If the price breaks 50.0% Fibo level at 2,118 to below on close bar so we may see the bearish reversal to be started.If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, December: ranging market condition within the bearish area of the chart
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.26 14:17
The weekly price is on bearish breakdown which was started in the beginning of october this year on the secondary ranging way: the price broke Ichimoku cloud to below to be reversed from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition. For now, the price is on testing 1.0568 support level to below for the Fibo level at 1.0517 as a nearest daily/weekly bearish target.
price is located within the following support/resistance levels:
line is below Kijun-sen line of Ichimoku indicator for
the primary bearish condition to be continuing, and Chinkou
Span line is below the price which is indicating the primary bearish trend in the future for this pair with the good volatility. By the way, Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the future price movement as the ranging bearish so we can expect the ranging market condition in the bearish area of the chart for example.
TREND: ranging breakdown
USDCAD Technical Analysis 2016, December: bullish trend to be continuing with 1.3588 level as the nearest bullish weekly target
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.26 14:54
price broke Ichimoku cloud to above for the bullish reversal in the end of October this year, and the price is on testing 1.3551 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing with 1.3588 level as the nearest bullish weekly target.
If W1 price breaks 1.3155
support level to below on close bar so the reversal of the weekly price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.If weekly price breaks 1.3551
resistance level on close bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing with 1.3588 target to re-enter.If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
Some people asked about indicators I am using for my market condition analysis (MT5) so please find indicators and template to download from the following post:
Market condition setup (indicators and template) is here
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.28 12:34
Weekly Review Fundamentals: Non-Farm Payrolls, GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and OPEC Meetings (based on the article)
EURUSD daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within very narrow s/r levels waiting for the primary bearish trend to be resumed or for the secondary rally to be started.
If the daily price breaks 1.0517 support level to below on close bar so the bearish trend will be resumed.If the price breaks 1.0657 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish market condition will be started.If not so the price will be on bearish ranging withn the levels waiting for direction.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.29 09:04
USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoC Governor Stephen Poloz Speech and 34 pips price movement
2016-11-29 00:45 GMT | [CAD - BOC Gov Poloz Speaks]
[CAD - BOC Gov Poloz Speaks] = Speech titled "The Role of Services in Canada’s Economy" at the C.D. Howe Institute Annual Benefactors’ Lecture, in Toronto.
From official report:
USD/CAD M5: 34 pips price movement by BoC Governor Stephen Poloz Speech news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.29 11:21
Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
EUR/USD: ranging within 1.0518/1.0684 levels.
is located below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA) in the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:
the price breaks 1.0684 level to above so the local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish trend will be started, , and if the price breaks 1.0518 suppoer level to below so the
bearish trend will be resumed.
is located below 100/200 SMA for the bearish market condition with the
ranging within 1.0518/1.0684 levels waiting for the bearish trend to be continuing or for the rally to be started.
United Overseas Bank is considering the EUR/USD price to be
on ranging market condition within the primary bearish trend.
"We just turned neutral on EUR yesterday and there is no change to the
view. The current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase,
likely within a 1.0550/1.0750 range."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.29 15:06
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: U.S. Gross Domestic Product2016-11-29 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
From official release:
EUR/USD M5: 30 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events
USD/CAD M5: 33 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.29 18:23
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GOLD (XAU/USD) and Dax Index: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence2016-11-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]
[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.
From official report:
"The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined in
October, increased significantly in November. The Index now stands at
107.1 (1985=100), up from 100.8 in October. The Present Situation Index
increased from 123.1 to 130.3, while the Expectations Index improved
from 86.0 last month to 91.7."
EUR/USD M5: 37 pips range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events
XAU/USD M5: range pips price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events
Dax Index M5: range pips price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events