Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 209

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for USD/CNH

Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.05 06:32

USD/CNH January-March 2017 Forecast: correction to be started

W1 price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price was bounced from 6.9868 resistance level to below for the secondary correction to be started on open weekly bar for now. The price is located within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 6.9868 resistance leevel located about Ichimoku cloud in the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 6.7733 support level located in the beginning of the correction to be started. 
Chinkou Span line is located above the price indicating the correction within the bullish trend to be continuing, Trend Strength indicator is estimating the trend as the primary bullish, and Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as a correctional one.


  • If the price breaks 6.9868 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If weekly price breaks 6.7733 support level on close bar to below so the local downtrend as the secondry correction within the primary bullish market condition will be started.
  • If weekly price breaks 6.6228 support level on close bar to below so we may see the reversal from the ranging bullish to be primary bearish condition.
  • If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
6.98686.7733
N/A6.6228

Trend:

W1 - correction

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.05 18:26

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day ranging bearish, daily ranging bullish

2017-01-05 16:00 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is 0.6M
  • forecast data is -1.8M
  • actual data is -7.1M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 7.1 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: ranging bearish. The price broke 200 period SMA for the breakout wqith the bearish reversal.

If the price breaks 56.54 resistance level so the bullish reversal will be started.
If the price breaks 56.16 support so the bearish market condition will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.



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Crude Oil Daily: bullish ranging with 58.35 resistance level to be testing. The price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA for the bullish are of the chart with 58.35 resistance level to be testing for the bullish trend to be continuing.


If daily price breaks 58.35 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 54.03 support level to below on close daily bar so the local downtrend as a secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.06 14:37

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and S&P 500: Non-Farm Employment Change

2017-01-06 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From the official report:

"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 156,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth occurred in health care and social assistance."

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EUR/USD M5: 75 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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GBP/USD M5: 37 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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S&P 500: pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.06 18:31

CAC 40 - daily ranging within narrow 4,929/4,860 levels (based on the article)


  • "CAC 40 consolidation has continued for the week, after putting in a new high on Tuesday at 4,929.60. So far for Friday’s session, the Index is trading down modestly (-0.17%) for today’s session. Top winners for the CAC 40 include Nokia (+1.68%) and Kering (+1.36%). Losers for the day include Sanofi (-2.71%) and Technip (-1.08)."
  • "Technically, the CAC 40 can be seen consolidating on the daily chart below. This 4-day range has been established by prices failing to breakout higher, which would signal a continuation of the Index’s multi month uptrend. Going into next week’s trading, traders should continue to look for a breakout above Tuesdays high. Alternatively, in the event that prices break under today’s low of 4,874.40, it may suggest that a new swing high has been put in place. In this scenario, traders may begin to look for the CAC 40 to retrace a portion of its December 2016 gains."
  • "If prices are rejected near present values, it may suggest that the Index may then retrace back towards values of support. For today’s trading, this includes the S3 pivot at 4,892.10 and the S4 pivot found at 4,883.50. Traders should note that prices have already attempted to breakout once below the S4 pivot this morning. In the event of another attempt, bearish traders may look for new lows to be established before today’s end of trading."


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.07 05:41

Weekly Outlook: 2017, January 08 - January 15 (based on the article)

The US dollar wobbled in the wake of 2017, torn between good and bad news. US Retail sales, consumer sentiment and PPI stand out. These are the highlights for this week.



The US monthly employment report showed a lower than expected job growth in December but wages registered a 2.9% annualized gain. The economy added 156,000 positions while expected to increase 175,000. The unemployment rate edged to 4.7% from 4.6%. However, wage growth was the most significant factor in December’s report as average hourly wages jumped 10 cents to $26, the highest gain since 2009, indicating the US labor market has fully recovered. The final report of 2016 also comes amidst a presidential transition period. Donald Trump has promised aggressive fiscal measures including tax cuts and higher domestic spending to boost economic growth beyond the mild expansion witnessed so far.


  1. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30. Oil prices increased as Saudi Arabia consented to OPEC’s plea to reduce output after prices fell on Us data.
  2. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. Economists expected a higher reading of 262,000.
  3. US Retail sales: Friday, 13:30.
  4. US PPI: Friday, 13:30.
  5. US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 15:00. Economists expected a milder rise to 94.3.

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.07 07:04

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, January 08 - January 15 (based on the article)

EUR/USD slipped to new 14-year lows in the wake of 2017 but recovered very quickly thanks to weakness in the USD. The second week of January features trade balance and industrial output measures.


Data in the euro-zone has been relatively positive, with a significant drop in German unemployment and a rise in inflation, especially in Germany. Retail sales missed expectations, but this did not stop the euro. In the US, data had a good start with an excellent report from the manufacturing sector but then became sour with ADP. The meeting minutes from the Fed hurt most, as they showed that Yellen and co. got a bit ahead of themselves with expectations for stimulus from Trump. The last word went to the dollar, with the NFP report: wages are up 2.9%, triggering talk about inflationary pressures.

  1. German Industrial Production: Monday, 7:00. A rise of 0.7% is on the cards.
  2. German Trade Balance: Monday, 7:00. A similar level of 20.8 billion is estimated for November.
  3. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30. A bounce to 12.6 is projected.
  4. Unemployment Rate: Monday, 10:00. A repeat of 9.8% is forecast.
  5. French Industrial Production: Tuesday, 7:45. An increase of 0.5% is predicted.
  6. French Final CPI: Thursday, 7:45. This number will likely be confirmed in this final read.
  7. Industrial Production: Thursday, 10:00. A gain of 0.5% is on the cards.
  8. ECB Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 12:30. The European Central Bank announced an extension of its QE program through 2017, a removal of some limits on bond buying but also a reduction in the pace of these buys. The bottom line was dovish as seen in the value of EUR/USD The meeting minutes could reveal if the ECB is still very worried about inflation, the reason for extending the program, or actually satisfied with the progress that has been made, the reason for the reduction. It could also tell us something about the next potential moves.

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Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for NZD/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.08 08:34

NZD/USD January-March 2017 Forecast: ranging along 'reversal' Senkou Span line

W1 price is located near and above Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price broke symmetric triangle pattern to below to be located within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 0.7484 resistance level far above ichimoku cloud in the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 0.6820 support level located inside Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the bearish reversal to be started. 
Chinkou Span line is located below the price indicating the ranging condition, Trend Strength indicator is estimating the future possible bearish reversal, and  Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as a secondary ranging.


 

  • If the price breaks 0.7484 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If weekly price breaks 0.6820 support level to below so we may see the reversal of the weekly price movement from the primary bullish to the ranging bearish market condition.
  • If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


Resistance
Support
0.74840.6820
0.74020.6674

Trend:

W1 - ranging

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.09 06:11

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Building Approvals and 25 pips range price movement

2017-01-09 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Building Approvals]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Building Approvals] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued.

==========

From official report:

  • "The trend estimate for total dwellings approved fell 2.9% in November and has fallen for six months."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved rose 7.0% in November after falling for three months."

==========

AUD/USD M5: 25 pips price movement by Australian Building Approvals news event

 


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.09 10:49

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Trade Balance and 25 pips range price movement

2017-01-09 07:00 GMT | [EUR - German Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

==========

From official report:

"The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 22.6 billion euros in November 2016. In November 2015, the surplus amounted to 20.5 billion euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 21.7 billion euros in November 2016."

==========

EUR/USD M5: 25 pips price movement by German Trade Balance news event

 


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Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for Dax Index

Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.10 14:57

Dax Index January-March 2017 Forecast: flat within bullish with key resistance at 11,649

W1 price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price broke 11,485 level to above on close weekly bar with 11,649 as a nearest bullish target to re-enter. Thus, the weekly price is located within the following key narrow support/resistance levels:

  • 11,649 resistance level located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 11,485 support level located above Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the ranging market condition to be started. 
Chinkou Span line is above the price indicating the ranging condition or flat, Trend Strength indicator is estimating the trend as the primary bullish, and Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as the flat. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line for the bullish trend to be resumed in the near future.


  • If the price breaks 11,649 resistance level on close weekly bar to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If weekly price breaks 11,485 support level on close bar to below so the ranging condition within the primary bullish trend will be started.
  • If weekly price breaks 10,036 support level on close bar to below so the reversal of the weekly price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
11,64911,485
N/A10,036

Trend:

W1 - ranging bullish