Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for USD/CNH
Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.05 06:32
USD/CNH January-March 2017 Forecast: correction to be started
W1 price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price was bounced from 6.9868 resistance level to below for the secondary correction to be started on open weekly bar for now. The price is located within the following support/resistance levels:
Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.05 18:26
U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day ranging bearish, daily ranging bullish
2017-01-05 16:00 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]
[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.
"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 7.1 million barrels from the previous week."
If daily price breaks 58.35 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.If the price breaks 54.03 support level to below on close daily bar so the local downtrend as a secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.06 14:37
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and S&P 500: Non-Farm Employment Change
2017-01-06 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
From the official report:
"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 156,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth occurred in health care and social assistance."
EUR/USD M5: 75 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events
GBP/USD M5: 37 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events
S&P 500: pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events
Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.06 18:31
CAC 40 - daily ranging within narrow 4,929/4,860 levels (based on the article)
Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.07 05:41
Weekly Outlook: 2017, January 08 - January 15 (based on the article)
The US dollar wobbled in the wake of 2017, torn between good and bad news. US Retail sales, consumer sentiment and PPI stand out. These are the highlights for this week.
The US monthly employment report showed a lower than expected job growth in December but wages registered a 2.9% annualized gain. The economy added 156,000 positions while expected to increase 175,000. The unemployment rate edged to 4.7% from 4.6%. However, wage growth was the most significant factor in December’s report as average hourly wages jumped 10 cents to $26, the highest gain since 2009, indicating the US labor market has fully recovered. The final report of 2016 also comes amidst a presidential transition period. Donald Trump has promised aggressive fiscal measures including tax cuts and higher domestic spending to boost economic growth beyond the mild expansion witnessed so far.
Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.07 07:04
Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, January 08 - January 15 (based on the article)
to new 14-year lows in the wake of 2017 but recovered very quickly
thanks to weakness in the USD. The second week of January features trade
balance and industrial output measures.
Data in the euro-zone has been relatively positive, with a significant drop in German unemployment and a rise in inflation, especially in Germany. Retail sales missed expectations, but this did not stop the euro. In the US, data had a good start with an excellent report from the manufacturing sector but then became sour with ADP. The meeting minutes from the Fed hurt most, as they showed that Yellen and co. got a bit ahead of themselves with expectations for stimulus from Trump. The last word went to the dollar, with the NFP report: wages are up 2.9%, triggering talk about inflationary pressures.
Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for NZD/USD
Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.08 08:34
NZD/USD January-March 2017 Forecast: ranging along 'reversal' Senkou Span line
W1 price is located near and above Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price broke symmetric triangle pattern to below to be located within the following support/resistance levels:
Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.09 06:11
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Building Approvals and 25 pips range price movement
2017-01-09 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Building Approvals]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - Building Approvals] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued.==========
From official report:
AUD/USD M5: 25 pips price movement by Australian Building Approvals news event
Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.09 10:49
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Trade Balance and 25 pips range price movement
2017-01-09 07:00 GMT | [EUR - German Trade Balance]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
[EUR - German Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.==========
"The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 22.6 billion euros in
November 2016. In November 2015, the surplus amounted to 20.5 billion
euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade
balance recorded a surplus of 21.7 billion euros in November 2016."
EUR/USD M5: 25 pips price movement by German Trade Balance news event
Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for Dax Index
Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.10 14:57
Dax Index January-March 2017 Forecast: flat within bullish with key resistance at 11,649
W1 price is
located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The
price broke 11,485 level to above on close weekly bar with 11,649 as a nearest bullish target to re-enter. Thus, the weekly price
is located within the following key narrow support/resistance levels: