Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 210

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.11 12:06

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Factory production and 70 pips range price movement

2017-01-11 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing Production]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Manufacturing Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers.

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From official report:

  • "In November 2016, total production was estimated to have increased by 2.1% compared with October 2016."
  • "The monthly estimate of manufacturing increased by 1.3% in November 2016; the largest contribution came from pharmaceuticals, which increased by 11.4%. Pharmaceuticals can be highly erratic, with significant monthly changes, often due to the delivery of large contracts."

 

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GBP/USD M5: 70 pips range price movement by U.K. Factory production news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.11 16:54

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day ranging near and above 200 SMA, daily correction to be started with 53.86 to be broken to below

2017-01-11 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.1 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: ranging. The price was on breakdown by trying to cross 200 period SMA to above for the intra-day bearish reversal but it was bounce from 200 SMA value at 53.86 to above for the ranging condition to be started.

If the price breaks 54.86 resistance level to above so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 53.86 support so the bearish reversal will be started.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.



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Crude Oil Daily: daily correction to be started with 53.86 to be broken to below. The price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart with the secondary correction to be started by 53.86 support level to be testing to below for the correction to be continuing. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be broken to below for the possible good breakdown, Trend Strength indicator and Absolute Strength indicator are evaluating the future possible trend as the secondary correction.


If daily price breaks 58.35 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 53.86 support level to below on close daily bar so the local downtrend as a secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.13 14:53

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD: U.S. Producer Price Index and Advance Retail Sales

2017-01-13 13:30 GMT | [USD - PPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

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From official report:

"The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.3 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.4  percent in November and were unchanged in October. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index climbed 1.6 percent in 2016 after falling 1.1 percent in 2015."

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2017-01-13 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

  • past data is 0.2%
  • forecast data is 0.5%
  • actual data is 0.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. 

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EUR/USD M5: 54 pips range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index and Advance Retail Sales news events


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GBP/USD M5: 42 pips range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index and Advance Retail Sales news events


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NZD/USD M5: 27 pips range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index and Advance Retail Sales news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.16 09:13

3 Things to Watch in the Stock Market This Week (based on the article)

  • "Stocks posted another week of gains last week. And even though the Dow Jones Industrial Average never cracked the 20,000 point level, it and the S&P 500 index ticked higher to keep firmly in rally mode."

Dow Jones Industrial Average, Daily Chart: the price is testing 19,999 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing.

 

S&P 500, Daily Chart: the price is testing 2,282 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing. 


  • "The week ahead could bring big portfolio swings for shareholders of Netflix, CSX, and General Electric, as the companies will post highly anticipated earnings announcements over the next few trading days."

Netflix, D1 Chart: daily share price is on bullish breakout for the testing resistance level at 133.87 to above for the bullish trend to be continuing:

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.17 07:12

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Dwelling Finance Commitment and 16 pips range price movement

2017-01-17 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Home Loans]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Home Loans] = Change in the number of new loans granted for owner-occupied homes.

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From rttnews article:

  • "The total number of new home loans in Australia issued in November climbed a seasonally adjusted 0.9 percent on month, the Australian Bureau said on Tuesday - standing at 54,603."

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AUD/USD M5: 16 pips range price movement by Australian Dwelling Finance Commitment news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.17 11:36

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Consumer Price Index and 72 pips range price movement

2017-01-17 09:30 GMT | [GBP - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report:

  • "The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 1.6% in the year to December 2016, compared with a 1.2% rise in the year to November."
  • "The rate in December was the highest since July 2014, when it was also 1.6%."
  • "The main contributors to the increase in the rate were rises in air fares and the price of food, along with prices for motor fuels, which fell by less than they did a year ago."

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GBP/USD M5: 72 pips range price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event


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FTSE 100 Index, M5: pips range price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.18 09:10

USD/CAD Ahead of BOC Rate Decision: daily bearish reversal; intra-day ranging bearish  (based on the article)


Daily price broke 100-day SMA/200-day SMA levels for the reversal to the primary bearish trend. The price is testing support level at 1.3017 to below for the bearish breakdown to be continuing.

  • "The USD/CAD has pressed to new 2017 lows at 1.3018, but the pair is now rebounding from this morning’s decline. Today’s decline has come ahead of Bank of Canada rate decision, where rates are expected to remain at 0.50%. While rates are expected to be unchanged, traders will look towards future policy cues from Governor Stephen Ploz that may directly affect the USD/CAD." 
  • "Technically the USD/CAD has turned bearish with the pair breaking below its daily 200 period moving average (MVA). This average resides at 1.3102, and if prices close beneath this value it will be the first time for the currency pair to do so in three months. While today’s price action qualifies as a daily breakout, traders will next look for the pair to close under the January 12th low at 1.3028. A move beyond this point exposes the next point of daily support near the psychological 1.30000 value. Alternatively if prices rebound near present values, bullish USD/CAD signals may begin again once the pair has risen back above the previously mentioned average." 


H4 intra-day price is below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart. The price is started for the ranging within 61.8% Fibo level at 1.3188 and Fibo level at 1.3017.

If the price breaks 1.3188 resistance level to above so the rally will be started.
If the price breaks 1.3293 resistance level to above so we may see the the bullish reversal of the intra-day price movcement.
If the price breaks 1.3017 support level to below so the intra-day bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels. 

  • "Intraday, the USD/CAD is trading well below today’s S4 pivot at 1.3128. While this bearish breakout occurred earlier in the session, traders may continue to use this point as an intraday point of resistance to time retracement entries. Traders looking for a bullish USD/CAD reversal should also continue to monitor today’s S4 pivot. If prices move back above this point, the next key value for the USD/CAD falls at 1.3150. A move here would suggest an invalidation of this morning’s breakout, and suggest at least a temporary change in the short term trend."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.19 07:21

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Employment Change and 20 pips range price movement

2017-01-19 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 37.1K
  • forecast data is 10.2K
  • actual data is 13.5K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

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From official report:

  • Employment increased 13,500 to 11,985,900. Full-time employment increased 9,300 to 8,176,500 and part-time employment increased 4,200 to 3,809,500.
  • Unemployment increased 14,700 to 741,100. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work increased 15,000 to 528,900 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work decreased 300 to 212,200.
  • Unemployment rate increased 0.1 pts to 5.8%.
  • Participation rate increased 0.1 pts to 64.7%.
  • Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 6.9 million hours to 1,670.4 million hours.

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AUD/USD M5: 20 pips range price movement by Australian Employment Change news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.20 15:32

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Consumer Price Index and 47 pips range price movement

2017-01-20 13:30 GMT | [CAD- CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD- CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.5% on a year-over-year basis in December, following a 1.2% gain in November.

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USD/CAD M5: 47 pips range price movement by Canada's Consumer Price Index news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.23 14:10

Alibaba: daily ranging near bullish reversal level (adapted from the article)

Alibaba share daily price is located inside Ichimoku cloud with the testing Senkou Span line at 97.90 for the bullish reversal.


  • "Alibaba is set to announce results for its December quarter early Tuesday morning before the market opens, followed by a conference call at 7:30 a.m. EST." 
  • "Alibaba should not have a problem beating estimates for the December quarter and guidance going forward should not be an issue either given the Chinese Lunar New Year Holiday (and shopping season) starting next Saturday." 
  • "As of December 30, 2016, there were 110.2 million shares (just under 5% of the float) of Alibaba held short compared to an average daily trading volume of 8.4 million shares. It would be safe to assume that amount is higher now that we are on the cusp of earnings for Alibaba."
If the price breaks 97.90 resistance level to above so the reversal of the dail price movement from the daily ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If the price breaks 86.01 support level to below so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on ranging bearish within the levels.


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