Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 138

Sergey Golubev
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Gold is Reaching at 1270

Sergey Golubev, 2013.07.01 21:04

How can we know: correction, or bullish etc (in case of using indicator for example)?

well ... let's take AbsoluteStrength indicator from MT5 CodeBase.

bullish (Bull market) :

bearish (Bear market) :

ranging (choppy market - means: buy and sell on the same time) :


flat (sideways market - means: no buy and no sell) :

correction :

correction in a bear market (Bear Market Rally) :



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Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.24 15:40

Targets for GBP/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/USD in 2016? - Deutsche Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD:
"2016 year-end forecasts have changed slightly, while end-2017 forecasts are largely unchanged. EUR/USD is now forecast at 0.95 at the end of 2016, up from our original 0.90 forecast."



USD/JPY:
"The yen will outperform almost all other currencies barring the USD in 2016, with a USD/JPY peak just shy of Y130."



GBP/USD:
"In 2016/7, Cable is expected to test and likely break the 1.35 – 1.40 bottom end of the range that has prevailed for 30 years."



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Next Month Forecast: the most interesting pair you can make money with - GBP/NZD

GBP/NZD: weekly bearish breakdown. The pair is on secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition: price broke key support levels on the way to downtrend and came to be very close to the Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart.

  • Weekly price is breaking 2.2023 key support level to below together with Senkou Span line for the bearish breakdown to be continuing with the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the global bearish trend.
  • Chinkou Span line is breaking the price to below for the good breakdown to be continuing in the future.
  • Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bearish trend to be started in January 2016 for weekly timeframe - the price will likely to be reversed to the bearish in Q1'16.
  • Nearest resistance level for the pair is 2.3647, and if the price breaks this level to above so we may see the bullish trend without secondary correction or ranging.
  • The key resistance breakout level is 2.5920, and if the price breaks this level so we may see good bullish breakout.
  • Key support breakdown level is 1.9750, and if the price breaks this level so we may see the breakdown once again.

There are 2 simple scenarios for the price movement for the Q1'16:

  • most likely scenario - breakdown with bearish reversal in case the price breaks 2.2023 support on close weekly bar with 1.9750 level as the target as re-enter,
  • or the ranging within the levels.


Resistance
Support
2.36472.2023
2.5920
1.9750
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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.25 13:19

Daily price is on bearish market condition located near and below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA). The price is ranging within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1059 resistance located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the daily chart, and
  • 1.0520 support located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area.

Two bearish triangle patterns were created by the price to the crossed for the bearish trend to be continuing, and RSI indicator is estimating the ranging condition by direction.

Resistance
Support
1.10591.0802
N/A
1.0520
  • Short-Term Forecast: if the price breaks 1.1059 resistance on close daily bar so the reversal from the primary bearish to the primary bullish condition will be started, otherwise - bearish ranging within the levels.
  • Most Likely Short-Term Scenario: ranging bearish.


Weekly price is on bearish market condition located to be below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA). The price is ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • 50.0% Fibo resistance at 1.1119 located between the secondary ranging and the secondary bar market rally within the primary bearish condition, and
  • 1.0520 support located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area.

The key reversal resistance level for weekly price is Fibo resistance at 1.1713, and if the price breaks this level to above on close weekly bar so the reversal to the primary bullish condition will be started with the secondary ranging. One bearish triangle pattern was created by the price to the crossed for the bearish trend to be continuing, and RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bearish condition in the future.

Resistance
Support
1.11191.0520
1.1713
N/A
  • Medium-Term Forecast: if the price breaks 1.1119 resistance on weekly daily bar so the local uptrend as the secondary bear market rally will be started within the primary bearish market condition and with 1.1713 as the bullish reversal target, otherwise the price will be ranging on bearish condition within the levels.
  • Most Likely Medium-Term Scenario: ranging bearish.


Monthly price is on bearish condition for the ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1713 resistance located near and below 100 SMA/200 SMA on the border between the secondary ranging and the secondary market rally within the bearish market condition, and
  • 1.0520 support located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area.

The key reversal resistance level for monthly price is 50.0% Fibo resistance at 1.2224, and if the price breaks this level to above so the global reversal of EUR/USD price to the bullish condition will be started.

Resistance
Support
1.17131.0520
1.2224
N/A
  • Long-Term Forecast: we may see the local uptrend as the secondary market rally if the price will break 1.1713 resistance level to above, and the bullish reversal may be started only if 1.2224 level will be broken. By the way, based on fundamental analysis incl US stock price movement forecasts to be ranging bearish in 2016 we can believe that 1.0520 support level will be finally broken by the price to below in long term situation for example.
  • Most Likely Long-Term Scenario: primary bearish trend will be continuing with 1.0520 level to be broken.



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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GBP/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.26 11:19

Daily price is on ranging bearish condition located below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA). The price is ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • Fibo resistance level at 1.5238 located near and below 100 SMA/200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the daily chart, and
  • Fibo support level at 1.4805 located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area.

The price was bounced from 1.4805 support level for the ranging condition to be started, but RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bearish trend to be continuing anyway so I foresee this breakdown to have a second try with this level for example.

Resistance
Support
1.52381.4805
1.5506
N/A
  • Short-Term Forecast: if the price breaks 1.4805 support level on close daily bar from above to below so the bearish trend will be continuing with a good breakdown possibility, otherwise - the price will be ranging within above mentioned key support/resistance levels.
  • Most Likely Short-Term Scenario: ranging bearish breakdown with 1.4805 level to be broken.


Weekly price is on ranging bearish breakdown to be below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA). The price is ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • Fibo resistance at 1.5929 located on the border between the bearish/bullish trend on the chart, and
  • Fibo support level at 1.4805 located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area.

The key reversal resistance level for the weekly price is Fibo resistance at 1.5929, and if the price breaks this level to above so the reversal to the primary bullish trend will be started. But as we see from the chart - the descending triangle pattern was formed with 1.4864 support to be broken for the bearish, and RSI indicator is estimating the bearish trend to be continuing in the future as well so the more likely scenario for weekly timeframe is the bearish market condition with the secondary ranging.

Resistance
Support
1.54971.4805
1.5929
1.4565
  • Medium-Term Forecast: if the price breaks 1.4805 support on close weekly bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing with 1.4565 level as the next bearish target, otherwise the price will be ranging within key support/resistance levels.
  • Most Likely Medium-Term Scenario: ranging bearish breakdown will be continuing with 1.4805 level to be broken for 1.4565 target to re-enter.


Monthly price is on bearish condition for the ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • 50.0% Fibo resistance level at 1.5929 located below 100 SMA/200 SMA on the border between the ranging bearish and the ranging bullish trend on the chart, and
  • Fibo support level at 1.4565 located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area.

The key reversal resistance level for monthly price is 50.0% Fibo resistance at 1.5929: if the price breaks this level to above so the bullish reversal will be started with the secondary ranging and with 1.7228 level as a long-term bullish target. But symmetric triangle pattern was already broken by the price to below for the bearish trend to be continuing and with 1.4565 as the next bearish target to re-enter so the bullish reversal scenario is very unlikely with this situation for example.

Resistance
Support
1.59291.4565
1.7228
N/A
  • Long-Term Forecast: if the price breaks 1.4565 support level to below on close monthly bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing, otherwise the price will be ranging key support/resistance levels.
  • Most Likely Long-Term Scenario: the key support level at 1.4565 will more likely to be broken, and primary bearish trend will be continuing.



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

Great indicator was found in CodeBase (for MT4): iFibonacci - indicator for MetaTrader 4

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Indicators: iFibonacci

Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.28 18:41

This is really great indicator (as all-in-one for example). I will use it for technical analysis.

Thanks a lot.



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.31 09:54

EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - wranging within bearish/bullish reversal levels

M5 price is located near and below SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200SMA) with the bearish market condition ranging within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 1.0933 resistance located above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
  • 1.0914 support level located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area.

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bearish condition to be continuing.

  • If the price will break 1.0933 resistance level so the price will be reversed to the bullish market condition.
  • If price will break 1.0914 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.09331.0918
N/A1.0914


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0914 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.0933 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : waiting for direction

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.01 20:05

6 month forecast by Citi group for US Dollar, Forex and Gold (based on the article)



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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.04 07:41

EURUSD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging bearish on reversal

H4 price is on primary bearish market condition for the ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • 1.0992 resistance located above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
  • 1.0827 support level located below Ichimoku cloud in the primary bearish area.

Chinkou Span line is below the price indicating the bearissh ranging trend to be continuing, and descending triangle pattern was formed by the price for the bearish breakdown in the near future. Trend Strength indicator is estimating the bearish trend, and Absolute Strength indicator is forecasting the bear market rally to be started.

Resistance
Support
1.09361.0845
1.09921.0827


If H4 price will break 1.0827 support level on close H4 bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If H4 price will break 1.0992 resistance level so we may see the reversal to the primary bullish condition.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 1.0992 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 1.0827 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.04 16:08

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals - Royal Bank of Canada Manufacturing PMI and 16 pips price movement

2016-01-04 14:30 GMT | [CAD - RBC Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - RBC Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.

==========

"Adjusted for seasonal influences, the RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI registered 47.5 in December, down from 48.6 in November and below the neutral 50.0 threshold for the fifth consecutive month. The latest PMI reading was the lowest in just over five years of data collection, largely reflecting weaker contributions from the output, new orders and employment components."    

"Business conditions in the Canadian manufacturing sector fell at a survey-record pace in December as weaker domestic demand and ongoing uncertainty in the energy sector continues to  take  its  toll," said Craig  Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC. "Across Canada, Alberta and British Columbia experienced the sharpest deterioration in conditions, while Ontario continued to be a national bright spot, posting a sustained rise in output production. As the  U.S. economy strengthens, we expect to see improvements in Canadian manufacturing sector activity levels."

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USDCAD M5: 16 pips range price movement by CAD - RBC Manufacturing PMI news event :