Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 137

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

The most interesting pair you can make money with - NZD/USD

NZD/USD: bullish breakout. The pair was bounced to the bullish area from Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the priumary bullish on H4 chart, and Chinkou Span line is located near and below the price indicating the possible breakout to be started in the near future. Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bullish trend to be continuing. Price is ranging within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 0.6778 resistance level located above Ichimoku cloud on the bullish area of the chart, and
  • 0.6680 support level located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart.

Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.

There are 3 simple scenarios for the price movement for the week:

  • bullish breakout in case the price breaks 0.6778 resistance on close H4 bar,
  • bearish reversal to be started in case the price breaks 0.6680 support from above to below,
  • or the ranging within the levels.


Resistance
Support
0.67780.6680
0.68330.6563
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.22 09:47

EURUSD Price Action Analysis - bearish ranging below key reversal Fibo resistance level (adapted from the article)

D1 price is located below 200 day SMA (200 SMA) and 100 day SMA (100 SMA) for the primary bearish market condition with the ranging near the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart.

  • The price is ranging between ranging between Fibo resistance level at 1.1059 and Fibo support level at 1.0520.
  • The bullish reversal resistance level is 1.1059 Fibo resistance located above 200 SMA on the border between the bearish/bullish area of the daily chart.
  • The bearish reversal support level is 1.0520 Fibo support located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area.
  • Intermediate support level for the price to be broken on the way to the key bearish reversal support level is 50.0% Fibo support level at 1.0791.
  • The Euro may be establishing a top against the US Dollar as prices carve out what may turn out to be a bearish Head and Shoulders chart formation. The single currency found resistance below the 1.11 figure having launched a recovery following the ECB rate decision, as expected.”
  • A break below support in the 1.0777-1.0818 area to below will lead with the 38.2% level at 1.0602 as the next target. Alternatively, a reversal above a horizontal pivot at 1.0938 may be targeting with the December 15 high at 1.1060.”



If the price will break 50.0% Fibo support level at 1.0791 so the primary bearish trend will be continuing with Fibo support level at 1.0520 as the next bearish target.
If the price will break Fibo resistance level at 1.1059 from below to above on close daily bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

GBPUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 20.12 - 27.12: global bearish breakdown

Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.22 10:49

Forecast for Tomorrow - levels for GBP/USD

GBP/USD M30: bear market rally to the ranging area. The price is located below 200 period SMA (200 SMA) and near 100 period SMA (100 SMA) which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the ranging bearish trend on the chart. There are the following key s/r levels:

  • 1.4907 resistance level located between 100 SMA/200 SMA and near 100 SMA on the border between the primary bearish/ranging bearish condition;
  • 1.4928 resistance level located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish area of the chart;
  • 1.4877 support level located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area of the H4 chart.


RSI indicator is estimating the possible local uptrend as the secondary bear market rally to be continuing.

  • if the price breaks 1.4907 resistance so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be continuing to the ranging area of the chart located to be between 100 SMA and 200 SMA;
  • if the price breaks 1.4928 resistance so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started;
  • if the price breaks 1.4877 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing without ranging up to the new 'bottom' to be forming;
  • if not so the price will be moved within the channel.
Resistance
Support
1.49071.4877
1.4928
N/A

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.22 15:11

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - Gross Domestic Product and 12 pips range price movement

2014-12-22 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.

==========

"Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation's economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2015, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.9 percent."

==========

EURUSD M5: 12 pips range price movement by USD - GDP news event :



Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Indicators: FP channel

Sergey Golubev, 2014.02.22 07:22

How to Trade Gold Yearly Pivot Points (adapted from dailyfx article)

  • Commodity pit traders have used pivot points for decades to determine potential support and resistance areas.
  • Gold yearly pivot points from 2013 forecasted significant turning points
  • Gold is approaching the 2014 central yearly pivot point at 1360.82
In this continuing series highlighting the seldom mentioned topic of yearly pivots, gold will be covered in detail. We will look at how yearly pivots in 2013 marked significant turning points in gold as well as the levels to watch out for with the new set of 2014 yearly pivots.

The year 2013 was not very kind to the shiny metal. Gold plunged 27% or just over $450/oz. in one of the biggest declines in many years. However, after hitting a three year low of 1178.86 back in December 2013, gold has managed to crawl back higher in 2014.Yearly pivots marked gold's decline with pinpoint accuracy.

Gold 2013 Yearly Pivots :



The sudden and severe $141/oz. drop in gold in the beginning of 2013 caught many gold traders off guard. However, traders who watched gold yearly pivots knew ahead of time that a close below the central pivot (P) at $1661.75/oz.

Notice in the chart above how price hugged the central pivot red line. The close below the yearly central pivot marked the beginning of a year-long decline to 3-year lows.

Even after reaching a low of 1208, the subsequent gold rally in July was stopped dead in its tracks at the S2 yearly pivot at $1392.79/oz. Gold went on to make the low of the year at 1179.86. Yearly pivots were useful for determining the beginning of the decline as well as locating areas to re-enter or add more to a position. You may now be wondering what the 2014 yearly pivots have in store for gold.

Gold 2014 Yearly Pivots :



Gold Yearly Pivot Trading Plan

Gold starts 2014 higher than where it left off in 2013. Crossing above the psychologically important $1300 level, gold is a long way from the lofty highs in the $1900 area. The first major yearly pivot hurdle is just $40.00 away at the central yearly pivot at 1360.82. This was also the highs of October 2013. Pivot points often act as magnets “pulling” price up or down to the nearest pivot.

The current weekly Japanese candlestick pattern is an indecision doji/spinning top. This gives us a “fork in the road” or decision point; price could break higher or lower from this point and continue to trend in the breakout direction. A new candle is due out next Monday and if it can break above the 1332 high of the doji candle could lead to an explosive move toward the R1 pivot and beyond. Moves above the central pivot are regarded as bullish.

On the other hand, a break below 1307.26 low of the weekly doji candle opens move toward the lows of 2013 in the 1186 area and a test of the S1 yearly pivot at 1024.25. Remember that yearly pivots represent potential support and resistance. Using the pivot point calculation on the high low and close of 2013, these levels can be created. Yearly pivot levels can help traders determine price targets for taking profit as well as entry and stop areas.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.23 10:29

GBP/USD in downtrend towards 1.45; EUR/USD is targeting at at 1.0960/80 (adapted from the article)

Societe Generale found Head & Shoulders pattern for EUR/USD and GBP/USD:

  • "If we drop down to daily chart, the pair has recently confirmed a head and shoulders pattern and is currently testing a descending channel limit at 1.4860/1.48...A move below 1.4860/1.48 will mean persistence in downtrend towards 1.45."
  • "Turning to EUR/USD, the pair appears to be forming the right shoulder of a short term H&S pattern at 1.0960/80."



EUR/USD. Bearish ranging on the bullish reversal. The price is located near and below 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA for the ranging within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1059 resistance level located in the beginning of the bullish trend of the daily chart, and
  • 1.0802 support level located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area.

Bearish triangle pattern was formed by the price to be broken for the bearish condition, and RSI indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing.

If the price breaks 1.0802 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing.
If the price breaks 1.1059
resistance level so the price will be started to be reversed from the primary bearish to the primary bullish condition.
If not so
the price will be ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close the price to break 1.1059 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0802 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
Resistance
 Support
1.10591.0802
N/A
1.0557


GBP/USD. Bearish breakdown. The price is on primary bearish market condition to be located far below 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 1.5239 resistance level located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend of the daily chart, and
  • 1.4805 support level located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area.

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be broken for the bearish trend to be continuing, and RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bearish condition by direction.

If the price breaks 1.4805 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing up to 1.4565 level as the target.
If the price breaks 1.5239
resistance level so the bullish reversal will be started.
If not so
the price will be ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close the price to break 1.5239 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch close daily price to break 1.4805 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish breakdown
Resistance
 Support
1.52391.4805
N/A
1.4565

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.23 12:32

USD/CAD Intra-Day Analysis - Canada GDP and and ranging on the bearish reversal

2014-12-18 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Gross Domestic Product]

  • past data is -0.5%
  • forecast data is 0.2%
  • actual data is N/A according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Gross Domestic Product] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.

==========

M5 price is ranging around SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) waiting to break the levels for direction.

  • If the price will break 1.3934 resistance level so the bullish trend will be started.
  • If price will break 1.3902 support so the bearish market condition will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.39341.3905
N/A1.3902


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.3902 support level on close M5 bar for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch close M5 price to break 1.3934 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish reversal

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, December: weekly bearish pattern for breakdown, monthly breakdown with support target

Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.23 14:20

EURUSD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging for direction: 'reversal' Senkou Span line to be broken for bearish; symmetric triangle pattern to be crossed for breakout

H4 price is located near abd below Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is ranging within 1.0983/1.0902 intermediate support resistance level for direction for the bearish or to the bullish trend with the possible key s/r reversal levels to be broken.

  • Chinkou Span line is located above the price indicating the ranging condition to be continuing by direction.
  • Symmetric triangle pattern was crossed by the price to below for the possible bearish trend to be continuing.
  • The key reversal support level for H4 price is 1.0802 located far below Ichimoku cloud in the primary bearish area of the chart.
  • The key reversal resistance level is 1.1059 located above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area.
Resistance
Support
1.09831.0902
1.10591.0802


If H4 price will break 1.0802 support level on close H4 bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging.
If H4 price will break 1.1059 resistance level so the price will be fully reversed to the primary bullish market condition.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels..

  • Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 1.1059 for possible buy trade.
  • Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 1.0802 support level for possible sell trade.
  • Trading Summary: ranging for direction

SUMMARY : ranging


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, December: weekly bearish pattern for breakdown, monthly breakdown with support target

Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.24 08:59

As to the EUR/USD price movement in the beginning of 2016 so there are the following key levels:

  • 1.1095 resistance located near 'reversal' Senkou Span line on the border between the bearish and the ranging bullish trend on the weekly chart, and
  • 1.0522 support level located far below Ichimoku cloud in the primary bearish area of the chart.


So, there are 3 scenarios for the price movement in 2016:

  1. Ranging. The price is breaking 1.1095 level to above on close weekly bar. The price will be inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging condition, and 'reversal' Senkou Span line (which is the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart) will be broken. Means: the price will be on the primary bullish market condition with the secondary ranging (ranging uptrend).
  2. Ranging. Price is breaking 1.0522 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.
  3. An unlikely scenario. The price is ranging within 1.1095/1.0522 area.

Thus, we can make a forecast for EURUSD movement in 2016 by one word: ranging.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
114338
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

How to Start with MT5, a summary !

Alain Verleyen, 2013.03.15 16:12

How to start with MT5 platform : summary.

As our topic about "How to start with Metatrader 5" is going to be huge, here you find a summary, with main links.



For developpers.


Work in progress, stay tuned :-)