Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 131

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.10.23 07:32

Post ECB rate decision event review - BNP Paribas (based on efxnews article)

The ECB left policy unchanged and Mario Draghi delivered the maximum level of dovishness at the press conference.

  • "Specifically, he said that the degree of policy accommodation will be re-examined in December and that all policy instruments are being considered, including a further cut in the deposit rate. He also said the ECB is “vigilant” on inflation – a key word that in the past has been used to indicate imminent action."
  • "The bottom line is that the December meeting now appears more a question of ‘how’, rather than ‘whether’, the ECB will ease policy further."
  • For the outlook for the EUR, we notes that the mention of the possibility of a further cut in the deposit rate was important as this is the policy tool that would probably have the most direct impact on eurozone front-end rates."
  • "However, we would also highlight the role of asset purchases for real rates, which Mr Draghi mentioned specifically once again. A key driver of EUR weakness early this year was a consistent rise in inflation expectations which drove real rates further into negative territory and led to portfolio capital outflows. If these dynamics are restored, the EUR should return to a weakening path."


  • "EUR shorts were largely unwound in Q2-Q3 and EUR positioning has turned the most bullish since 2013. After ECB meeting the market is likely to be biased to rebuild short positions, selling into any EUR rallies."
  • "We maintain EUR/USD short from 1.1450 targeting 1.09 and EUR/GBP short from 0.7395 targeting 0.70."

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.10.24 17:44

EUR/USD: levels and targets by Societe Generale (based on efxnews article)

Societe Generale made a weekly technical forecast concerning the EUR/USD:

  • "Considering a largely negative close this week, EUR/USD will form an evening star, a candlestick pattern that signals possibility of down move. It is noteworthy that this evening star coupled with a shooting star back in August gives bearish connotations."
  • "As such, SocGen thinks that the current break below 1.1085 means a retest of multi decadal channel support at 1.05/1.04 with intermittent targets at 1.0940 and May lows of 1.08."
  • "This massive channel remains the decisive level for next leg of downtrend as a move below 1.05/1.04 will confirm that the ongoing correction is not just a retracement of the up move since 2000 but in fact of the whole up cycle since the 1980s."


As we see from the chart above - the nearest support level is 1.1086, and it is going to be crossed on the weekly open bar. The next support levels as the next bearish taregts are  1.0807 and 1.0607. And the 'final' taregt si 1.0461.


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Sergey Golubev, 2015.10.26 10:37

EURUSD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - stop near key support for the bearish breakdown to be continuing (based on efxnews article)

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken made intraday technical forecast for EUR/USD pair estimated new support level around 1.08 with stop loss at about 1.15:

"With additional selling on Friday prices broke and closed below the March support line, the floor of the large bear flag. The break now suggests that we have left the seven months long correction having resumed the longer term underlying bear trend. The next key support is 1.0869- 1.0808. Short term there is however a growing risk for at least a minor reaction higher. Lower the stop from 1.1510 to 1.1306."


From the technical point of view - the intra-day price was stopped by 1.0996 support level on the way to the bearish breakout to be continuing, and reversal resistance level is 1.1339.


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Sergey Golubev, 2015.10.26 14:26

Trading ideas for EUR/USD by UBS Group (based on efxnews article)

UBS Group made a weekly technical forecast making the trading recommendations for the EUR/USD pair related for the trading.

EURUSD:

  • "We are struggling to see value in shorts."
  • "Sell at 1.1060, adding at 1.1085, with a stop at 1.1110."


The price is trading to be below Ichimoku cloud for the crossing 23.6% Fibo support level at 1.1021 from above to below for the bearish trend to be continuing. The nearest bearish target is Fibo support level at 1.0811, and if the price crosses this target so we may see the good bearish breakdown up to 1.04/1.05.

If the price will break 1.1021 support level on close W1 bar so the primary bearish will be continuing up to 1.0811 as the next target.
If the price will break 1.0811 support level on close W1 bar so we may see good breakdown within the primary bearish market condition.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.


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Sergey Golubev, 2015.10.28 07:58

EUR/USD: Levels & Targets - UOB (based on efxnews article)

EURUSD traded sideways as expected, notes UOB Grou:

  • "Market appears to be biding time ahead of FOMC and this pair is expected to stay within 1.1000 and 1.1100 for now. In view of the weak mid-term outlook, the risk appears to be greater on the downside."
  • "The key level on the upside remains at 1.1140 as a break above this level would be a strong indication that we have seen a short-term low."

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.10.29 11:00

Technical Ideas for EUR/USD by SEB (based on efxnews article)

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken made intraday technical forecast for EUR/USD pair estimated new support level at 1.0896:

"The rejection from the recently broken flag floor and the break below the support was exactly what was needed to trigger the next part of the decline. Selling will likely take short pause arriving at 1.0896 but probably not for long. The current wave three should stretch out for the 1.05-area before any more profound reaction likely to occur."


From the technical point of view - the intra-day price is on bearish ranging within 1.1095 resistance and 1.0896 support levels. If support level will be broken from above to below so the bearish trend will be continuing, otherwise - ranging.

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.11.01 05:50

Fundamental Analysis by Credit Agricole: what we’re watching (based on efxnews article)

Credit Agricole made a fundamental forecasts related to the price of some pairs movement during some high impacted news events for the week.

Fundmental analysis:

  • USD - "Friday’s US labour data should prove constructive enough to keep the Fed on track with considering higher rates in December. As such, we remain in favour of buying USD on dips."
  • GBP - "Although next week’s inflation report is likely to confirm rising downside risks to growth and inflation, we believe there is little scope of falling BoE rate expectations from the current levels."
  • AUD - "Given more muted price developments and ongoing uncertainty as related to Asia, it cannot be ruled out that the RBA will decide in favour of lower rates. We favour selling AUD rallies."
  • NOK - "We see little scope of the Norges Bank turning more dovish next week. The NOK should remain driven by external factors such as oil prices."

Technical analysis:

  • EUR/USD - the price is located below YR1 Central Pivot for the bearish market condition with the ranging within S1 Pivot at 1.1337 and S2 Pivot at 1.0672 for crossing 1.0962 support level from above to below. if the price breaks S2 Pivot at 1.0672 so we may see good breakdown possibility with 1.0461 as the next bearish target.


InstrumentS2 Pivot
S1 Pivot
Yearly PP
R1 Pivot
EUR/USD 1.0672 1.1337
1.2665
1.3329

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.11.02 07:25

Trading Weekly Review - Sell EUR/GBP (based on efxnews article)

Deutsche Bank adviced to sell EUR/GBP this week based on some fundamental weekly forecast:

  • "It’s a big week for sterling followed by the BoE’s QIR on Thursday. The question is whether the MPC follow the ECB or Fed’s lead by signaling either that tightening will be delayed or reiterating the belief that rate hikes would come into focus at the turn of the year."
  • "We think the latter, and with a hike not fully priced by the end of next year, think the risk/reward to being long GBP is favorable going into the meeting."


From the technical point of view - the EUR/GBP pair is on bearish market condition for crossing the key support level at 0.7122 with 0.6935 as a next bearish target. Ichimoku cloud together with Sinkou Span lines are located below the price for the bearish condition, and absolute strength indicator is signaling for the bearish breakdown to be started. If the price crosses 0.7122 support level on close bar so we may see the good price movement up to 0.6935 support level for example.

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.11.02 13:59

Trading Ideas for EUR/USD - bearish key month reversal (based on efxnews article)

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken made some technical analysis for EUR/USD:

EUR/USD: secondary correction is started "Mr. Market did chose to follow the alternate correction path and prices accordingly moved up in close proximity to the recent correction high, 1.1098. With the rejection lower there’s a relatively high probability that the minor correction now is over and done hence lower levels waiting around the corner. The monthly close below 1.1087 also created a bearish key month reversal (here seen as a bearish continuation pattern given that it didn’t come from a correction high)."

H4 price is on bearish market condition with the ranging within 1.1072 resistance and 1.0896 Fibo support level. Ascending triangle pattern is formed by the price to be crossed from below to above, but the price broke trendline to above for the secondary correction to be started.

Resistance
Support
1.10721.0896
1.1218
N/A

If H4 price will break 1.0896 support level on close H4 bar so the primary bearish will be continuing.
If H4 price will break 1.1072 resistance level so the bear market rally will be started with the good possibility to the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition.
If not so we may see the ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 1.1072 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 1.0896 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.11.03 08:02

Trading Weekly Review - Sell EUR/USD (based on efxnews article)

Credit Suisse adviced to sell EUR/USD this week based on the following some fundamental factors:

  • "The monetary policy divergence has re-emerged, in our view. We would stick to EUR shorts, following the ECB's dovish surprise at its last meeting as the threat of more negative front-end rates could be fairly effective in pushing funds out - for instance reserve managers should be sensitive to negative rates given the short duration of their fixed income holdings."
  • "We expect unemployment to fall further to 5.0% (consensus is 5.1%), non-farm payrolls print to recover to 170k from 140k (consensus 180k) with positive backward revisions to the August and September prints (historically these two months tend to be revised up by 80k on average)."


From the technical point of view - the price for the pair broke 100 day SMA and 200 day SMA from above to below for the primary bearish market condition: the price was bounced off Fibo support level at 1.0896 to start ranging around 23.6% Fibo level. By the way, descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below, and RSI indicator is estimating the bearish trend to be continuing, so the mist likely scenario for this pair for the week is to continuing with bearish trend with the possible breakdown possibility.