Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 141

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.15 07:48

EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging near 100 SMA/200 SMA area for direction of the trend

M30 price is located near and above SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) for th bullish ranging market codition waiting for the direction for the possible breakout or breakdown. Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the bullish trend to be continuing, and RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish condition to be in the near future for example.

  • If the price will break 1.0942 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing withiout secondary ranging.
  • If price will break 1.0834 support so the price will be fully reversed to the primary bearish market condition.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.08891.0854
1.0942
1.0834


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0834 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.0942 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bullish

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : waiting for direction

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.15 15:10

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - Core Retail Sales and 64 pips price movement

2016-01-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.

==========

EURUSD M5: 64 pips price movement by USD - Core Retail Sales news event :



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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.16 09:22

What we’re watching (based on the article)


  • USD - "Evidence of accelerating core inflation could help the USD but mainly against risk-correlated and commodity currencies."
  • EUR - "ECB President Draghi may consider a more dovish rhetoric as part of next week’s press conference. This should keep the EUR a sell."
  • GBP - "Next week’s labour and retail sales data should confirm constructive domestic conditions to the benefit of rate expectations, and the currency."
  • CAD - "Even if the BoC were to refrain from easing monetary policy further as soon as next week, they should consider a dovish rhetoric. This should prove sufficient in keeping the CAD a sell on rallies."
  • NZD - "Any better than expected inflation data is likely to prove an opportunity to sell the NZD anew."

Sergey Golubev
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USD to Turkish Lira: bullish breakout

Weekly price was on ranging market condition to be located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price was started with the secondary breakout within the primary bullish trend in the beginning of January this year by breaking 3.0279 resistance level: price is breaking 3.0745 resistance for the bullish breakout to be continuing, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bullish trend in a medium-term and a long-term situation for this pair.

If the price will break 2.8154 support level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started with the secondary ranging: the price will be located inside Ichimoku cloud in thius case. 
If the price will break 2.5604 support level so the price will be fully reversed to the bearish condition without ranging. 
If the price will break 3.0745 resistance level from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing. 
If not so the price will be ranging between the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close W1 price to break 3.0745 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch W1 price to break 2.8154 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish
ResistanceSupport
3.07452.8154
N/A2.5604

Trend

W1 - bullish breakout      
Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.18 10:39

Forecast for Tomorrow - levels for EUR/USD

H4 price is bullish market condition for the ranging near and above Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the birtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is ranging within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 1.0984 resistance located above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
  • 1.0804 support level located near and below Ichimoku cloud in the primary bearish area.

Chinkou Span line is located near the price to be ready for breakout or breakdown, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging condition in the near future.

Resistance
Support
1.09841.0804
N/A
1.0707


If H4 price will break 1.0804 support level on close H4 bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If H4 price will break 1.0984 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 1.0984 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 1.0804 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : waiting to break the levels

TREND : ranging

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for USD/JPY

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.18 11:30

USDJPY Technical Analysis 2016, 17.01 - 24.01: daily bearish breakdown to be continuing

Daily price was on the bearish breakdown: price crossed key support levels together with 100 day SMA/200 day SMA, and it was stopped by 116.13 support level to be started with the ranging within 116.13/119.16 ranging area.

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bearish condition to be continuing in the near future.

If D1 price will break 116.13 support level on close bar so the bearish breakdown to be continuing.
If D1 price will break 119.16 resistance level on close bar so we may see the local uptrend as the bear market rally within the primary bearish condition.
If D1 price will break 123.66 resistance level on close bar so the price will be reversed to the primary bullish trend.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 119.16 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 116.13 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: correction to bearish reversal
Resistance
Support
119.16116.13
123.66
N/A



SUMMARY : bearish breakdown

TREND : daily bearish

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.19 08:51

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Gross Domestic Product and 27 pips range price movement

2016-01-19 02:00 GMT | [CNY - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

USDJPY M5: 27 pips range price movement by CNY - GDP news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.19 08:43

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Gross Domestic Product and 16 pips price movement

2016-01-19 02:00 GMT | [CNY - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

GBPUSD M5: 16 pips price movement by CNY - GDP news event :



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Forecast for Tomorrow: intra-day levels for USD/CAD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY

USD/CAD: ranging bullish. This pair is ranging to be above Ichimoku cloud within key support/resistance levels to be broken for the bullish trend to be continuing or for possible bearish reversal to be started.

  • if the price breaks 1.5605 resistance so the primary bullish market condition will be continuing;
  • if the price breaks 1.4431 support level on close H4 bar so the local uptrend as the secondary correction will be started within the primary bullish market condition;
  • if the price breaks 1.4218 support level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started with the secondary ranging: the price will be located inside Ichimoku cloud in this case);
  • if not so the price will be moved within the channel.


Resistance
Support
1.56051.4431
N/A
1.4218

EUR/USD: ranging for direction. The price for the pair is located above and near Ichimoku cloud for the bullish market condition ranging on the border between the bearish/bullish reversal area waiting for the direction of the trend.

  • if the price breaks 1.0984 resistance so the bullish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging condition;
  • if the price breaks 1.0804 support level on close H4 bar so reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish condition will be started up to 1.0770 re-enter target;
  • if not so the price will be ranging between the levels.


Resistance
Support
1.09841.0804
N/A
1.0770

USD/JPY: waiting for big news to start big movement. Intra-day H4 price is located inside Ichimoku cloud and near 'reversal' Senkou Span line (which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart) and with the symmetric triangle pattern which was broken by the price to above for the possible bullish trend to be started.The price is ranging within 118.10/117.00 as intermediate s/r levels and within 118.83/116.50 as the key s/r levels.

  • if the price breaks 118.10 resistance so the primary bullish trend will be continuing up to 118.83 as the next target to re-enter;
  • if the price breaks 117.00 support level so the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition will be started;
  • if not so the price will be moved within the levels.


Resistance
Support
118.10117.00
118.83116.50
Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.20 08:28

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Consumer Price Index and 74 pips price movement

2016-01-19 02:00 GMT | [NZD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

"In the December 2015 quarter compared with the September 2015 quarter:

  • The consumers price index (CPI) fell 0.5 percent to a level of 1198.
  • Petrol prices fell (down 7.0 percent), making the largest downward contribution. 
  • Seasonally lower vegetable prices (down 17 percent) also fell.
  • International airfares (up 5.5 percent), prices for newly built houses excluding land (up 1.2 percent), and rentals for housing (up 0.6 percent) rose.
  • Prices for tradable goods and services fell 1.8 percent, while prices for non-tradable goods and services rose 0.5 percent.
  • After seasonal adjustment, the CPI fell 0.2 percent."

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NZDUSD M5: 74 pips price movement by NZD - CPI news event :