Press review - page 360

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

Star Wars: Jedi Lessons On Making Money  With Trading (based on the article)

Ignore the Special Effects, What’s the Story?
"Translated from George Lucasspeak, this means you have to ignore short-term events and focus on the big picture."

Know the Dark Side of the Force.
"Know what kind of risk you can tolerate and how much money you can afford to lose given your age."

Reconsider Retirement.
"If you enjoy work, this is a no-brainer. There’s no rule that says you have to leave the workforce at a certain age."

Keep Developing Your Inner Force.
"Every Jedi Knight knows that you have to keep working on your skills to become stronger and wiser. That means continuing your education and engaging in lifelong learning."

The Biggest Advantage is the Least Glamorous.
"The characters who survive do so through pluck, resilience and smarts. They figure out a way to beat the nasty armies who are better equipped and more numerous. That means thinking outside of the box. What do you need to do to survive? Start a new business? Acquire a new skill? Change careers? You can start your transformation by looking at the industry you’re in: What direction is it going in? Are you going to wait around for a layoff or do something differently."

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Initial Rate Hikes Seldom Prove Toxic To Stocks (based on the article)


"Chair Yellen announced that, for the first time in seven years, easy money will become slightly less easy. The target rate will be set at between 0.25 and 0.50 percent, which doesn’t sound like much, but it’s important. Plus, this comes at a time when fellow industrialized nations and economic areas around the globe are considering further monetary easing measures."


"The question on investors’ minds, though, is what effect they might have on their investments. To answer this, CLSA analyzed what happened to the U.S. dollar and stocks in the S&P 500 Index 60 trading days before and after the initial rate hike in past cycles and then calculated the averages. It’s important to keep in mind that, aside from rising interest rates, a multitude of unique factors—from geopolitics to economic conditions to the weather—played roles in influencing the outcomes. Nevertheless, CLSA’s research is instructive."


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

EURUSD Price Action Analysis - bearish ranging below key reversal Fibo resistance level (adapted from the article)

D1 price is located below 200 day SMA (200 SMA) and 100 day SMA (100 SMA) for the primary bearish market condition with the ranging near the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart.

  • The price is ranging between ranging between Fibo resistance level at 1.1059 and Fibo support level at 1.0520.
  • The bullish reversal resistance level is 1.1059 Fibo resistance located above 200 SMA on the border between the bearish/bullish area of the daily chart.
  • The bearish reversal support level is 1.0520 Fibo support located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area.
  • Intermediate support level for the price to be broken on the way to the key bearish reversal support level is 50.0% Fibo support level at 1.0791.
  • The Euro may be establishing a top against the US Dollar as prices carve out what may turn out to be a bearish Head and Shoulders chart formation. The single currency found resistance below the 1.11 figure having launched a recovery following the ECB rate decision, as expected.”
  • A break below support in the 1.0777-1.0818 area to below will lead with the 38.2% level at 1.0602 as the next target. Alternatively, a reversal above a horizontal pivot at 1.0938 may be targeting with the December 15 high at 1.1060.”



If the price will break 50.0% Fibo support level at 1.0791 so the primary bearish trend will be continuing with Fibo support level at 1.0520 as the next bearish target.
If the price will break Fibo resistance level at 1.1059 from below to above on close daily bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - Gross Domestic Product and 12 pips range price movement

2015-12-22 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.

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"Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation's economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2015, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.9 percent."

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EURUSD M5: 12 pips range price movement by USD - GDP news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Indicators: FP channel

Sergey Golubev, 2014.02.22 07:22

How to Trade Gold Yearly Pivot Points (adapted from dailyfx article)

  • Commodity pit traders have used pivot points for decades to determine potential support and resistance areas.
  • Gold yearly pivot points from 2013 forecasted significant turning points
  • Gold is approaching the 2014 central yearly pivot point at 1360.82
In this continuing series highlighting the seldom mentioned topic of yearly pivots, gold will be covered in detail. We will look at how yearly pivots in 2013 marked significant turning points in gold as well as the levels to watch out for with the new set of 2014 yearly pivots.

The year 2013 was not very kind to the shiny metal. Gold plunged 27% or just over $450/oz. in one of the biggest declines in many years. However, after hitting a three year low of 1178.86 back in December 2013, gold has managed to crawl back higher in 2014.Yearly pivots marked gold's decline with pinpoint accuracy.

Gold 2013 Yearly Pivots :



The sudden and severe $141/oz. drop in gold in the beginning of 2013 caught many gold traders off guard. However, traders who watched gold yearly pivots knew ahead of time that a close below the central pivot (P) at $1661.75/oz.

Notice in the chart above how price hugged the central pivot red line. The close below the yearly central pivot marked the beginning of a year-long decline to 3-year lows.

Even after reaching a low of 1208, the subsequent gold rally in July was stopped dead in its tracks at the S2 yearly pivot at $1392.79/oz. Gold went on to make the low of the year at 1179.86. Yearly pivots were useful for determining the beginning of the decline as well as locating areas to re-enter or add more to a position. You may now be wondering what the 2014 yearly pivots have in store for gold.

Gold 2014 Yearly Pivots :



Gold Yearly Pivot Trading Plan

Gold starts 2014 higher than where it left off in 2013. Crossing above the psychologically important $1300 level, gold is a long way from the lofty highs in the $1900 area. The first major yearly pivot hurdle is just $40.00 away at the central yearly pivot at 1360.82. This was also the highs of October 2013. Pivot points often act as magnets “pulling” price up or down to the nearest pivot.

The current weekly Japanese candlestick pattern is an indecision doji/spinning top. This gives us a “fork in the road” or decision point; price could break higher or lower from this point and continue to trend in the breakout direction. A new candle is due out next Monday and if it can break above the 1332 high of the doji candle could lead to an explosive move toward the R1 pivot and beyond. Moves above the central pivot are regarded as bullish.

On the other hand, a break below 1307.26 low of the weekly doji candle opens move toward the lows of 2013 in the 1186 area and a test of the S1 yearly pivot at 1024.25. Remember that yearly pivots represent potential support and resistance. Using the pivot point calculation on the high low and close of 2013, these levels can be created. Yearly pivot levels can help traders determine price targets for taking profit as well as entry and stop areas.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

GBP/USD in downtrend towards 1.45; EUR/USD is targeting at at 1.0960/80 (adapted from the article)

Societe Generale found Head & Shoulders pattern for EUR/USD and GBP/USD:

  • "If we drop down to daily chart, the pair has recently confirmed a head and shoulders pattern and is currently testing a descending channel limit at 1.4860/1.48...A move below 1.4860/1.48 will mean persistence in downtrend towards 1.45."
  • "Turning to EUR/USD, the pair appears to be forming the right shoulder of a short term H&S pattern at 1.0960/80."



EUR/USD. Bearish ranging on the bullish reversal. The price is located near and below 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA for the ranging within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1059 resistance level located in the beginning of the bullish trend of the daily chart, and
  • 1.0802 support level located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area.

Bearish triangle pattern was formed by the price to be broken for the bearish condition, and RSI indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing.

If the price breaks 1.0802 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing.
If the price breaks 1.1059
resistance level so the price will be started to be reversed from the primary bearish to the primary bullish condition.
If not so
the price will be ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close the price to break 1.1059 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0802 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
Resistance
 Support
1.10591.0802
N/A
1.0557


GBP/USD. Bearish breakdown. The price is on primary bearish market condition to be located far below 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 1.5239 resistance level located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend of the daily chart, and
  • 1.4805 support level located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area.

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be broken for the bearish trend to be continuing, and RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bearish condition by direction.

If the price breaks 1.4805 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing up to 1.4565 level as the target.
If the price breaks 1.5239
resistance level so the bullish reversal will be started.
If not so
the price will be ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close the price to break 1.5239 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch close daily price to break 1.4805 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish breakdown
Resistance
 Support
1.52391.4805
N/A
1.4565
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CAD Intra-Day Analysis - Canada GDP and and ranging on the bearish reversal

2015-12-18 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Gross Domestic Product]

  • past data is -0.5%
  • forecast data is 0.2%
  • actual data is N/A according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Gross Domestic Product] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.

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M5 price is ranging around SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) waiting to break the levels for direction.

  • If the price will break 1.3934 resistance level so the bullish trend will be started.
  • If price will break 1.3902 support so the bearish market condition will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.39341.3905
N/A1.3902


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.3902 support level on close M5 bar for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch close M5 price to break 1.3934 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish reversal
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Targets for GBP/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/USD in 2016? - Deutsche Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD:
"2016 year-end forecasts have changed slightly, while end-2017 forecasts are largely unchanged. EUR/USD is now forecast at 0.95 at the end of 2016, up from our original 0.90 forecast."



USD/JPY:
"The yen will outperform almost all other currencies barring the USD in 2016, with a USD/JPY peak just shy of Y130."



GBP/USD:
"In 2016/7, Cable is expected to test and likely break the 1.35 – 1.40 bottom end of the range that has prevailed for 30 years."


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Trade Review with Tillie Allison (based on the article)

As the Year comes to a close, Merlin welcomes Tillie Allison to the show to talk about her quarterly and annual trade review. The duo also answer listener questions on stop losses using options and intricacies of looking at Level II to help gauge price movement and liquidity.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

2015-12-25 05:00 GMT | [JPY - Bank of Japan Core CPI]

[JPY - Bank of Japan Core CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

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