Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2015.11.05 14:02
Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD by SEB (based on efxnews article)
EUR/USD: Time for a short break? "The rejection from the
previously broken trend line did trigger the anticipated selling and
the pair accordingly yesterday continued to decline. Now having arrived
at the equality point (between the current decline and the wave 1 one)
and with prices outside the 55d Bollinger bands there’s a slightly
elevated risk that we will see a corrective bounce higher before
continuing lower. On a grander scale the current down-wave, three, is
expected to terminate in the 1.05-area."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.11.06 07:12
EUR/USD into Payrolls (based on efxnews article)
Some major int'l financial institutions are making fundamental forecasts concerning NFP for today. For example:
From the technical point of view - the intra-day price is on bearish market condition located below 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA.
I think, the most real scenario for today is the following: intra-day price will be in secondary ranging market condition within the primary bearish.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.11.06 14:53
EURUSD Intra-Day Fundamentals - Non-Farm Payrolls and 154 pips price movement (based on bls.gov article)
2014-11-06 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
[USD - Non-Farm
Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the
previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an
important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a
majority of overall economic activity.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.11.09 08:45
USD, EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD: Outlooks For The Week - Morgan Stanley (based on efxnews article)
EUR: Bearish"We have revised our EUR forecasts lower and now look for 1.06 at year
end. Our economists now expect another 10 bp cut in the deposit rate,
an addition to QE, and an extension of the asset purchase programme. All
of this should be EUR negative. We believe the deposit rate cut is
likely to be the most currency negative, as it should incentivize
foreign investors to fund in EUR and domestic investors to seek returns
USD: Bullish"We believe USD could start to see inflows related to investment,
rather than repatriation of assets. While the latter does not require
tighter Fed policy, the former will benefit from a higher probability of
Fed hikes. Indeed, this is likely to support US assets and boost USD."
GBP: Bearish"Markets have taken the BoE dovishly as they revised CPI forecasts and
started to get concerned about the impact of EM growth on the UK
economy. On top of this, there is a downside risk to near-term inflation
as the strong trade-weighted GBP (ERI) puts downward pressure on import
prices. The focus is now on EM data again and its impact on commodity
prices and general market volatility as GBP remains sensitive to all of
Quick question!. I came across a report about the oil price. I need to ask if I am investor and looking for an long term investment in Oil companies. But recently I looked over the oil price forecast 2016 report stating there are chance of increase in the oil prices in the coming period. I wanted to know how much feasible it is for me to invest in the oil sector seeing the oil prices are going to vary in the coming year and should I consider investing in the same or look for any other investments?
I do not know ... the oil price is more rely on fundamental factors than on technical analysis (more than EUR/USD for example). If you see from the image below - the price is on bearish for ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:
There are some more key resistance levels located on the bullish area of the chart: 66.32 and 69.59. I named those levels as 'reversal' levels which means the following: if the price breaks those levels (especially 69.59) from below to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish may be started.
But the price movement for oil is more related to the fundamental news events than to Ichimoku indicator sorry :) so, will see ...
Sergey Golubev, 2015.11.09 18:29
The Royal Bank of Scotland made a forecast for EUR/USD telling that "The cleanest way to play is still short EUR/USD." (based on article). So, let's made very short review of intra-day situation for this pair.
The price (H4 timeframe) is on bearish market condition located below 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA on the bearish area of the chart. Price is ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:
Thus, The Royal Bank of Scotland is correct one concerning the trend: this is bearish anyway in intra-day basis for the pair.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.11.10 11:08
Technical Overview: Will EUR/USD Break 1.0461 Support? (adapted from article)
BNP Paribas updated their forecast related to the EUR/USD price
movement in long-term situation - they told the following: "we are
somewhat sceptical on the EURUSD’s ability to test and break the
previous 2015 low of around 1.0460." Well ... let's evaluate this
forecasting situation with technical point of view.
price is on bearish market condition for the crossing key support level
at 1.0704 from above to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.
This is bearish breakdown which is going on for right now: Chinkou Span
line crossed the price to below for the bearish breakdown to be
continuing. And the nearest bearish target is 1.0461. So, there are 2
scenarios concerning the price movement in long-term situation:
Points. The price is breaking S2 YR1 Pivot at 1.0672 from above to
below with 1.0461 as the next target. And there are two similar
scenarios for the price movement related to Pivot Points:
The Strategy: watch the price to break 1.0672with possible sell trade with 1.0461 as a target.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.11.11 13:26
Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD - SEB (adapted from efxnews article)
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken made a technical forecast for telling that EUR/USD will go as high as 1.08 before 1.0655 support level will be broken by the price from above to below. As we see from the chart below - the price is on bearish market condition for the ranging between the following key support/resistance levels:
Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price with 1.0707 support level to be broken for the bearish trend to be continuing up to 1.0674 as the nearest bearish target.
The Strategy: watch W1 price to break 1.0707 support level for possible sell trade with 1.0674 as the target.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.11.13 07:46
EURUSD Long-Term Outlook - bearish ranging near S2 Pivot level (adapted from the article)
Credit Suisse made a forecast for EUR/USD for 2016 estimated 1.00 as
the first target and 0.85 as the second one. Let's evaluate this
forecast with the technical point of view.
EUR/USD: bearish ranging near S2 Pivot level.
This pair is on bearish market condition for the ranging within S1
Pivot at 1.1337 and S2 Pivot at 1.0672: the price is on bearish
breakdown for now with 1.0672 level crossing from above to below for
0.9599 as the next bearish target.