Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 143

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.22 16:43

GOLD: End Of Week Technicals - bear market rally to the bullish reversal

Daily price is on primary bearish market condition located below 100 day SMA (100 SMA) and 200 day SMA (200 SMA) for the local; uptrend as the bear market rally to be started in the beginning of January this year. Symmetric triangle pattern was fomed by the price to be crossed for direction, and RSI indicator is estimating the bear market rally to be continuing with the secondary ranging condition.

If the price breaks 1046.27 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing.
If the price breaks 1113.04 resistance level so the reversal of tjhe price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close the price to break 1046.27 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1046.27 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bear market rally


Resistance
 Support
1046.271071.38
N/A
1046.27

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : rally

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.23 08:01

EURUSD: watching for support in the mid-1.0600s (based on the article)


  • "EUR/USD has been holding its long term trendline support since March 2015 (even the January low is right on the line). November and December trade produced a tweezer bottom (reversal candlestick pattern…bullish in this case) as well. 2 scenarios seem most likely from the current juncture; a continued range (with roughly 1.15 resistance) or a bullish base that leads to an eventual breakout into the 1.20s."
  • "Near term, we suggest watching for support on the shorter term median line (bold black line on the chart above) in the mid-1.0600s. The market has been in a tight range since December."

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.23 08:07

GBPUSD: 1.4069 as the next bearish target (based on the article)


  • "The next market level that might stem the freefall is the 1.40…in part due to the psychological aspect of the figure but also because of the presence of a parallel (parallel to line that extends off of the 1992 and 2007 highs).” Cable bounced higher this week but price needs to establish above 1.4400 in order to suggest that even a short term low is in place."

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.24 08:56

GOLD (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis 2016, 24.01 - 31.01: ranging bearish

Daily price is on primary bearish condition with the secondary ranging located inside Ichimoku cloud  and below Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart.

The price is ranging within the following key reversal s/r levels:

  • 1113.12 key resistance level located in the beginning of the bullish trend on the daily chart, and
  • 1071.34 key support level located on the border between the ranging bearish and the primary bearish trend.
Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing, and Chinkou Span line is located too far from the price for any possible breakdown or breakout in the coming week for example.

If D1 price will break 1071.34 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging and with 1046.23 level as the bearish target.
If D1 price will break 1113.12 resistance level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1113.12 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1071.34 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: correction to bearish reversal
Resistance
Support
1113.121071.34
N/A
1046.23



SUMMARY : ranging bearish

TREND : bearish

Sergey Golubev
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The most interesting pair you can make money with - EUR/CAD

EUR/CAD: breakdown to bearish reversal. Daily price for the pair is located above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish market condition with the secondary correction to be started. Chinkou Span line broke the price to below for good breakdown to be started and to be continuing in the near future, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the secondary correction to be started. The price broke two key support levels during the breakdown with 1.4940 support level as the target in this case for example.

There are 3 simple scenarios for the price movement for the next 3 weeks: 

  • the breakdown will be continuing in case the price breaks 1.5331 support level on close daily bar;
  • the bearish reversal will be started in case the price breaks 1.4940 support level to below;
  • or the ranging within the primary bullish s/r levels will be started.

There are the following news events which will be affected on EUR/CAD price movement for the week:

  • 2016-01-25 09:00 GMT | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]
  • 2016-01-25 18:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]
  • 2016-01-26 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]
  • 2016-01-27 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]
  • 2016-01-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core Durable Goods Orders]
  • 2016-01-29 07:00 GMT | [EUR - German Retail Sales]
  • 2016-01-29 13:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]
  • 2016-01-29 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]


ResistanceSupport
1.59571.5331
1.61031.4940
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.25 09:39

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Trade Balance and 26 pips price movement

2016-01-24 23:50 GMT | [JPY - Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

==========

USDJPY M5: 26 pips price movement by JPY - Trade Balance news event :



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.25 09:39

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Trade Balance and 26 pips price movement

2016-01-24 23:50 GMT | [JPY - Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

==========

USDJPY M5: 26 pips price movement by JPY - Trade Balance news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.25 15:17

Danske Bank: buy EUR and sell GBP (based on the article)

  • Danske Bank recommends buying EUR, SEK and CHF while selling AUD, NZD and GBP based on their weights in portfolio/ Let's evaluate this forecast in a technical points of view.

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EURUSD.

H4 price is located below 200 period SMA (200 SMA) and below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) for the primary bearish market condition with secondary ranging within the following key reversal support resistance levels:

  • Fibo support level at 1.0777 located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary ebarish area of the chart, and
  • 61.8% Fibo resistance level at 1.0899 located near and above 200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish area.


If the price will break Fibo support level at 1.0777 to below so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If the price will break 61.8% Fibo resistance level at 1.0899 to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary ebarish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

-------------

GBPUSD.

H4 price is far below 200 period SMA (200 SMA) and below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) for the primary bearish market condition/ The price is ranging within the following key reversal support resistance levels:

  • 50.0% Fibo support level at 1.4221 located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area of the chart, and
  • Fibo resistance level at 1.4362 located near 100 SMA and below 200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the ranging bearish trend.


There are 3 simple scenarios for the price movement for the week:

  • local uptrend as the bear market rally to be started in case the price breaks 1.4362 resistance level to above,
  • bearish trend will be continuing with 1.4079 target in case the price breaks 1.4221 support level to below,
  • or the ranging will be continuing within the levels.

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GBP/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.26 08:11

GBP/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging bearish within key reversal levels

M5 price is located below SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and below SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) for the primary bearish market condition ranging within 1.4232 resistance level and 1.4199 support level. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the bearish trend to be continuing, and RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bearish condition in the near future.

  • If the price will break 1.4232 resistance level so we may see the bullish reversal to be started on this timeframe.
  • If price will break 1.4199 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.42321.4199
1.4241N/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.4199 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.4232 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bearish

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.26 08:23

EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging bullish condition on the border with reversal near 100 SMA/200 SMA area

M5 price is on bullish ranging near and above SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on M5 intra-day chart. The price is located within 1.0859 resistance and 1.0840 support with RSI indicator estomating the ranging bullish trend to be continuing in the near future.

  • If the price will break 1.0859 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1.0840 support to below so the reversal from the primary bullish to the primary bearish trend will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
ResistanceSupport
1.08591.0840
N/AN/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0840 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.0859 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish