Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 140

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.11 15:11

GOLD (XAU/USD) Price Action Analysis - ranging near bullish reversal

Daily price is located below 200 period SMA (200 SMA) and near below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) for the primary bearish market condition on the border between the primary bearish and the ranging bearish trend:

  • Fibo resistance level at 1113.12 is going to be broken by the price from below to above for the ranging condition to be started for the price which will be located between 100 SMA/200 SMA in this case;
  • ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price for the breakout to be started with the possible reversal of the price movement to the primary bullish condition;
  • RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish market condition to be started in the near future for example.


If the price will break Fibo resistance level at 1113.12 so we may see the ranging condition to be started with the good possibility to the bullish reversal in the near future.
If the price will break Fibo support level at 1046.23 from above to below so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Resistance
Support
1113.121046.23
N/A
N/A
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1046.23 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1113.12 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.12 09:32

Strongest Quant Signals This Week - SEB (based on the article)

  • "If going shorting EUR/JPY and/or USD/JPY one should definitely be wary and operate with a tight stop loss."

Daily price is located below SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and below SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) within 23.6% Fibo resistance at 118.30 and Fibo support level at 116.69. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price with 117.22 support to be crossed for the bearish trend to be continuing for 116.69 target to re-enter.

  • If the price will break 118.30 resistance level so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started with 120.11 target to re-enter with good bullish reversal possitility.
  • If price will break 117.22 support on close daily bar to below so the bearish trend will be continuing up to 116.69 as the next bearish terget to re-enter.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
118.30117.22
120.11116.69


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 117.22 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 118.30 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bearish

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.12 10:45

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - Manufacturing Production and 39 pips price movement

2016-01-12 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing Production]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Manufacturing Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers.

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  • "Total production output is estimated to have increased by 0.9% in November 2015 compared with the same month a year ago. There were increases in 3 of its 4 main sectors, with the largest contribution coming from mining & quarrying, which increased by 10.5%."
  • "Manufacturing output decreased by 1.2% in November 2015 compared with November 2014. The largest contribution to the decrease came from the manufacture of machinery & equipment not elsewhere classified, which decreased by 13.7%."
  • "Total production output is estimated to have decreased by 0.7% between October 2015 and November 2015. There were decreases in all of the main sectors, with manufacturing, mining & quarrying and electricity & gas having the largest contributions to the decrease."
  • "Manufacturing output decreased by 0.4% in November 2015 compared with October 2015. The largest contribution to the decrease came from the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products & pharmaceutical preparations, which decreased by 4.9%."
  • "In the 3 months to November 2015, total production and manufacturing output increased by 0.2% and 0.5% respectively on the previous 3 months."
  • "In the 3 months to November 2015, production and manufacturing were 9.1% and 6.1% respectively below their values reached in the pre-downturn GDP peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008."

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GBPUSD M5: 39 pips price movement by GBP - Manufacturing Production news event :



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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.12 11:06

EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - intra-day bearish breakdown

M5 price is located below SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and below SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) for the bearish breakdown with the crossing Fibo support level at 1.0851 to below for the bearish trend to be continuing, RSI indicator is estimating the bearish market condition in the near future for this timeframe.

  • If the price will break 1.0875 resistance level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
  • If price will break 1.0851 support on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.08751.0851
N/A
N/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0851 support level on close M5 bar for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.0875 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : breakdown

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Repainting Articles

Sergey Golubev, 2013.07.09 12:26

I did not find education trading articles about repainting and non-repainting. I think - you should look at the forum posts.

For example - there are the following indicators by categories :

- non-repainting. Most of the indicators are inside this category (most of the indicators are non-repainting). It means: if you see the signal so wait for the bar with the signal to be closed and new bar is opened. Traders are using non-repainting indicators to trade on close bar (classical way of trading for most of the traders). Some people confused 'non-repainting' with 'continuing painting'. For example, open bar is continuing paiting by itself together with value of any indicator. Close bar is not repainting by value together with non-repainting indicator.

- repainting indicators. There are many of them which were created especially for some different cases. Zigzag for example. Some of those indicators are used as the filters to filter false 'non-repainting signals' from the other indicators.

- re-calculating indicators. The values of those indicators are recalculated for n number of the bars. Indicators can be used a the filters or for technical analysis (not for direct trading).

- repainting by mistake made by coders. There are many examples of the indicators coded by coders in repainting way as the mistake (such as super signals etc).

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Sometimes - the people confused repainting with contrinuing painting, and trading on open bar with trading on close bar. We are having a lot of threads/articles  about programming but just few threads about how to trade in practical way with a lot of indicators in CodeBase for example :)


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.13 14:58

Intra-Day Fundamentals - China CGAC Trade Balance and 67 pips price movement for majors

2016-01-13 02:00 GMT | [CNY - CGAC Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - CGAC Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month. Export demand/currency demand are directly linked with each other: foreigners buy the domestic currency to pay for the exports.

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EURUSD M5: 14 pips price movement by CNY - CGAC Trade Balance news event :


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GBPUSD M5: 11 pips price movement by CNY - CGAC Trade Balance news event :


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USDJPY M5: 31 pips price movement by CNY - CGAC Trade Balance news event :


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USDCHF M5: 11 pips price movement by CNY - CGAC Trade Balance news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.14 09:40

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - Employment Change and 37 pips range price movement

2016-01-14 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

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  • Employment increased to 11,893,800.
  • Unemployment decreased to 734,300.
  • Unemployment rate decreased 0.1 pts to 5.8%.
  • Participation rate increased less than 0.1 pts to 65.2%.
  • Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 2.8 million hours to 1,649.9 million hours.

==========

AUDUSD M5: 37 pips range price movement by AUD - Employment Change news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.14 10:13

USDJPY Technical Analysis 2016, January 14: ranging bearish (adapted from the article)

D1 price is on primary bearish market condition:

  • The price is located to be below Ichimoku cloud/kumo and Senkou Span line (which is the virtual border between the primary bullish and the primary bearish on the daily chart) for the bearish market condition.
  • Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen line of Ichimoku indicator which is indicating the primary bearish condition to be continuing.
  • Chinkou Span line is below the price for the ranging bearish condition.
  • "USDJPY weekly chart shows a bearish cloud cross. One of the important bearish signals we discussed in our 13 December report, Technical Advantage: USD/JPY shows signs of weakness, was the pending cross of the Ichimoku cloud. The cross occurred, and the cloud is officially in a bearish position. This happened with RSI breaking support and showing a bearish momentum."
  • "USDJPY may trade down to the 100wk moving average and the bottom of the rising cloud at about 114-115.50. Given the triangle top, a measured move suggests 112 is even a possibility. A rise to the 50wk average and top of the cloud at about 120.75 would be a great place to go short, in our view."
  • Nearest support levels are 117.22 and 116.13.
  • Nearest resistance levels are 118.83 and 123.75.


If the price will break 117.22 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing with 116.13 target to re-enter.
If the price will break 118.83 resistance level so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
If the price will break 123.75 resistance level so the price will be fully reversed to the bullish market condition with good breakout possibility.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
  • Recommendation for long: watch close price to break 118.83 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch price to break 117.22 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish
Resistance
Support
118.83117.22
123.75
116.13

SUMMARY : bearish
TREND : breakdown of support levels


Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.14 11:28

EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, January: ranging for direction

D1 price is on bearish ranging condition located inside Ichimoku cloud waiting for direction:
  • The price is ranging within Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B to be located inside Ichimoku cloud.
  • Tenkan-sen line crossed Kijun-sen line of Ichimoku indicator for the possible bullish market condition to be started in the near future.
  • Chinkou Span line is crossing the price to above for the bullish condition.
  • Nearest support levels are 1.0710 and 1.0522.
  • Nearest resistance level is 1.1059.


If the price will break 1.0710 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing with 1.0522 target to re-enter.
If the price will break 1.1059 resistance level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
  • Recommendation for long: watch close price to break 1.1059 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch price to break 1.0710 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
ResistanceSupport
1.1059
1.0710
N/A
1.0522
SUMMARY : ranging
TREND : waiting for direction

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.14 14:30

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - Official Bank Rate and 54 pips price movement

2016-01-14 12:00 GMT | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight.

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"The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy in order to meet the 2% inflation target and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment.  At its meeting ending on 13 January 2016, the MPC voted by a majority of 8-1 to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5%.  The Committee voted unanimously to maintain the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £375 billion, and so to re-invest the £8.4 billion of cash flows associated with the redemption of the January 2016 gilt held in the Asset Purchase Facility."

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GBPUSD M5: 54 pips price movement by GBP - Official Bank Rate news event :