Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 139

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.06 13:59

EURUSD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - Ranging Bearish

H4 price is on primary bearish market condition located below Ichimoku cloud with the secondary ranging within 1.0710 support and 1.0836 resistance.

  • Chinkou Span line is below the price indicating the ranging bearish trend to be continuing.
  • Senkou Span line (which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish on the chart) located far below the price and above 1.0836 resistance level which makes the bullish reversal to be unlikely in the bear future.
  • The nearest support level for H4 price is 1.0710.
  • The nearest resistance levels for H4 price are 1.0772 and 1.0836.
Resistance
Support
1.07721.0710
1.0836N/A


If H4 price will break 1.0710 support level on close H4 bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If H4 price will break 1.0836 resistance level so we may see the local uptrend and the secondary market rally with the good possibility to the bullish reversal.
If H4 price will break 1.0992 resistance level so the intra-day price will be reversed from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition.
If not so
the price will be ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 1.0836 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch close H4 price to break 1.0710 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging

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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.07 11:53

EURUSD, M15: 35 range pips price movement by EUR - Retail Sales news event:



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.07 16:37

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals - Ivey PMI and 37 pips price movement

2016-01-07 15:00 GMT | [CAD - Ivey PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Ivey PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.

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  • "The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) by the end of December 2015 stood at 49.9. The corresponding Ivey PMI figure for November 2015 was 63.6, for December 2014 was 55.4 and for December 2013 was 46.3."
  • "The Employment Index for December 2015 was 59.7, the Inventories Index was 50.8, the Supplier Deliveries Index was 54.3 and the Prices Index was 61.9."
  • "The PMI is provided in two formats, unadjusted and seasonally adjusted. It shows responses to one question: "Were your purchases last month in dollars higher, the same, or lower than the previous month?" A figure above 50 shows an increase while below 50 shows a decrease."

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USDCAD M5: 37 pips price movement by CAD - Ivey PMI news event :



Sergey Golubev
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How to Start with Metatrader 5

Sergey Golubev, 2014.05.07 18:18

Just a reminder

There is good article concerning to fundamental trading (for creation of the EAs related to News Trading) :

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Building an Automatic News Trader



As Investopedia states, a news trader is "a trader or investor who makes trading or investing decisions based on news announcements". Indeed, economic reports such as a country's GDP, consumer confidence indexes and employment data of countries, amongst others, often produce significant movements in the currency markets. Have you ever attended a U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls release? If so, you already know that these reports may determine currencies' recent future and act as catalysts for trends reversals.


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.08 11:41

Trading News Events: U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change (based on the article)

What’s Expected:


Why Is This Event Important:

Despite the cautious tone laid out in the Fed Minutes, a further improvement in labor market conditions may encourage the committee to adopt a more hawkish tone at the January 27 interest rate decision as Chair Janet Yellen remains confident in achieving the 2% inflation goal over the policy horizon.

However, the slowdown in business outputs along with the persistent weakness in private-sector consumption may drag on job growth, and a dismal NFP print may prompt the FOMC to endorse a wait-and-see approach in an effort to mitigate the downside risk for growth and inflation.

How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: NFP Climb Another 200K or Greater, Wage Growth Picks Up

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bearish USD Trade: U.S Employment Report Disappoints
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily



  • Long-term outlook for EUR/USD remains tilted to the downside amid the deviating paths for monetary policy but, failure to preserve the bearish setup carried over from the previous month may highlight a larger correction in the exchange rate.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1052 (November high) to 1.1090 (50% retracement)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)

November 2015 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
EURUSD M5: 60 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news event:



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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.08 14:55

EURUSD M5: 57 pips price movement by USD - U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change news event:



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.10 12:05

Danske Bank: Caught In 1.05-1.10 Range; What's Next? (based on the article)


  • "EUR/USD is in our view caught in the 1.05-1.10 range, but later on we expect a rebound on no renewed policy divergence and strong EUR fundamentals."

D1 price is on ranging market condition located inside Ichimoku cloud for waiting for the direction:

  • Tenkan-sen line is located above Kijun-sen line of Ichimoku indicator which is indicating the primary bullish market condition.
  • Chinkou Span line is above the price indicating the ranging bullish market condition in the near future.
  • Ddescending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for good possible breakdown with the reversal.
  • Nearest support levels are 1.0710 and 1.0522.
  • Nearest resistance level is 1.1059.
If daily price will break 1.0710 support level on close bar so we may see the bearish market condition up to 1.0522 as the next bearish target.

If daily price will break 1.1059 resistance level so the price will be on the beginning of the primary bullish market condition without secondary ranging.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close price to break 1.1059 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0710 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
Resistance
Support
1.10591.0710
N/A
1.0522

SUMMARY : ranging
TREND : waiting to break the levels


Khurram Mustafa
37369
Khurram Mustafa  
I think it will break support, 
Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  
Khurram Mustafa:
I think it will break support, 

If daily price will break 1.0710 support level on close bar so we may see the bearish market condition up to 1.0522 as the next bearish target.
If daily price will break 1.1059
resistance level so the price will be on the beginning of the primary bullish market condition without secondary ranging.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close price to break 1.1059 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0710 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

Yes, but not yet: new daily bar was opened and the support is 1.0707 instead of 1.0710. And the porice is still inside Ichimoku cloud with ranging waiting for direction to break of the border of the cloud for bearish or bullish trend.


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.11 11:41

USD/CHF Intra-Day Fundamentals - Retail Sales and 10 pips price movement

2016-01-07 15:00 GMT | [CHF - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CHF in our case)

[CHF - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles and gas stations.

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USDCHF M5: 10 pips price movement by CHF - Retail Sales news event :