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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 13.12 - 20.12: ranging on reversal
Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.14 12:23
EURUSD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - bullish with the ranging within key reversal s/r levels
is located above SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and SMA with the period
200 (200-SMA) for the primary bullish market condition with the
secondary ranging within the following key reversal support/resistance
RSI indicator is estimating the current trend as the ranging bullish market condition.
SUMMARY : ranging
Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.14 14:08
AUD/USD: short-term strategy, long-term strategy and the levels to watch - Swiss Finance Corporation (based on the article)
As we see from the chart above - the price (H4) is ranging between 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA waiting for direction.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.14 14:22
EUR/USD: short-term strategy, long-term strategy and the levels to watch - Swiss Finance Corporation (based on the article)
As we see from the chart above - the price (H4) is on bullish market condition for the secondary ranging within s/r levels waiting for direction:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.15 06:50
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: re-enter for short (based on the article)
Anyway, H4 price is located near 100 period SMA on the border between the primary bullish and the ranging bearish trend on the chart with the symmetric triangle pattern to be crossed for direction:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.15 09:57
EUR/USD: trading ideas by Societe Generale (based on the article)
SocGen made a long-term forecast for EUR/USD confirmed that 1.05/1.04 levels as the medium-term target will be extended in downmove to 0.96/0.95 target in the long-term situation.
As we see from the chart above (EUR/USD, D1) - the price is on bear market rally within the primary bearish market condition: 100 SMA/200 SMA are very near to be broken by the price from below to above for the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition. If the price will be bounced from 1.1042 resistance level so we may see the ranging bearish condition up to 1.0516 level as a nearest bearish target in this case.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.15 13:13
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - German ZEW Economic Sentiment and 15 pips price movement
2014-12-15 10:00 GMT | [EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment]
[EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed German institutional investors and analysts. It's a leading indicator of economic health - investors and analysts are
highly informed by virtue of their job, and changes in their sentiment
can be an early signal of future economic activity.
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany has increased for
the second consecutive time in December 2015. Gaining 5.7 points
compared to the previous month, the index now stands at 16.1 points
(long-term average: 24.7 points).
EURUSD M5: 15 pips price movement by EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment news event
Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.15 16:28
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - Consumer Price Index (CPI) and 26 pips price movement
2014-12-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]
[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation
is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the
central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged
in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items
index increased 0.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.The index
for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in November, the
same increase as in September and October. The indexes for
shelter, medical care, airline fares, new vehicles, and tobacco were
among the indexes that rose in November. In contrast, the indexes for
recreation, apparel, household furnishings and operations, and used cars
and trucks all declined.
EURUSD M5: 26 pips price movement by USD - Consumer Price Index (CPI) news event
Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.16 09:26
EUR/USD ranges on reversal ahead of FOMC (adapted from the article)
Morgan Stanley is forecasting USD long movement against the major currencies incl TRY, BRL, AUD and CAD for example:
Let's describe the situation with the technical point of view.
H4 price was on the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition: price was bounced from 1.1059 resistance level yesterday and it was stopped inside Ichimoku cloud near 1.0904 support level and Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bullish and the
bearish on the chart.
If price will break 1.0904 support level on close H4 bar so we may see the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging: the price will be located inside Ichimoku cloud for ranging).If price will break 1.1059 resistance level on close H4 bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
SUMMARY : ranging on reversal
AUD/USD: Technical Price Action Analysis - daily ranging near bearish reversal area
D1 price is on ranging bearish market condition located below 200 day SMA (200 SMA) and near 100 day SMA (100 SMA) within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:
RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bearish condition to be continuing by direction.
SUMMARY : bearish
Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.16 13:34
USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD Into FOMC (adapted from the article)
Credit Suisse and Credit Agricole are forecasting the Fed rates hike for today telling that Fed will maintain a dovish tone during the FOMC Statement:
2014-12-16 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the
Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation
- traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates
will change in the future.
Credit Suisse, Credit Agricole and some other int'l financial institutions are forecasting the ranging volatile market condition during and after FOMC mettings because of the following:
Thus, we may see the ranging condition in intra-day basis for the major currency pairs.
What does it mean for EUR/USD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD for example?
EUR/USD H4: Ranging. The price is on ranging condition located near and above 100 SMA/200 SMA within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:
According to above mentioned forecast - the price will continuing with the ranging condition within the levels.
AUD/USD H4: Ranging on bearish reversal. The price is on ranging condition located near 200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart within the following key reversal
Thus, we can foresee the price to break 200 SMA from above to below for 0.7159 as the next bearish target which means the reversal of intra-day price movement to the primary bearish market condition.
GBP/USD H4: Ranging. The price is located near
and below 100 SMA/200 SMA for the ranging market condition within the following key reversal
The most likely scenario for the intra-day price is to be moved during and immediate after FOMC meetings with the ranging condition within the levels, and in long-term situation - bearish market condition by 1.49/1.48 support area to be broken.