EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, December: weekly bearish pattern for breakdown, monthly breakdown with support target - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.09 07:37

EURUSD long-term forecasts updated: more ranging than bearish - Goldman Sachs (based on article)

Goldman Sachs updated their long-term forecast for EUR/USD with more bullish than in previous one: the price will be droped to 1.07 for 3 months instead of 1.02 as the previously forecasted, half a year forecast is 1.05 instead of 1.000, and one year fiorecast is 1.0000 instead of 0.9500 previous one.


Instrument
3 month forecast
6 month forecast
12 month forecast
EUR/USD
1.0700 vs 1.0200 prev1.0500 vs 1.00 prev
1.00 vs 0.9500

According to Goldman Sachs - the price will reach second pivot support level at 1.0672 for 3 months only, and the price will be in the bearish market condition for the ranging within S2 Pivot at 1.0672 and 1.0520 support level. And the bearish trend will be re-started in the second half of 2016 only: price will reach 1.0000 psy level by the end of 2016 for example.

Thus, we will see the ranging bearish market condition since January till June 2016, and the primary bearish condition will be continuing with good breakdown possibility without ranging since July till December 2016.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.10 13:06

Setups For EUR/USD by Barclays (based on efxnews article)

Barclays Capital made a forecast for EUR/USD for today and tomorrow:

  • the price will break 1.1085/1.1120 resistance area to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition,
  • if the price breaks 1.0795 support area so 1.0700 psy level may be the nearest bearish target in this case.

Let's evaluate this forecast with the technical point of view.

M5 timeframe. Ranging bearish. The price is located below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA) for the primary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1042 key reversal resistance level located above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
  • 1.0932 support level located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area of intra-day chart.


If the price will break 1.0932 support level on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If the price will break 1.1042 resistance level on close bar so we may see the reversal of the intra-day price movement to the primary bullish market condition.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close the price to break 1.1042 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0932 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging near reversal area waiting for direction

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.11 10:11

Trading News Events: U.S. Retail Sales (adapted from the article)

Another 0.2% expansion in U.S. Retail Sales may fuel speculation for a December Fed rate-hike and spur a near-term pullback in EUR/USD as central bank officials largely endorse an upbeat outlook for the world’s largest economy.

What’s Expected:


Why Is This Event Important:

Signs of stronger consumption may encourage the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) at the next meeting as it remains one of the leading drivers of growth and inflation but, a weak sales report may drag on rate expectations as Chair Janet Yellen appears to be in no rush to normalize monetary policy.

However, subdued wages accompanied by the slowdown in private credit may drag on sales, and a dismal outcome may prompt the FOMC to lower its interest-rate forecast at the December meeting as it undermines the central bank’s scope to achieve the 2% inflation target over the policy horizon.

How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: Retail Sales Expands 0.2% or Greater in November

  • Need red, five-minute candle following a positive print to consider a short EUR/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bearish USD Trade: U.S. Household Consumption Falls Short of Market Forecast
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EUR/USD Daily



  • EUR/USD stands at risk of further retracing the decline from the October high (1.1494) as the bull flag formation takes shape following the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to breaking out of the bearish formation from back in August.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1052 (November high) to 1.1090 (50% retracement)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)

 

EUR/USD Price Action Analysis - 50.0% Fibo support level to be broken for the bearish trend to be continuing

D1 price is located below 200 day SMA (200 SMA) and 100 day SMA (100 SMA) for the primary bearish market condition. The price was bounced from 100 SMA/200 SMA and Fibo resistance at 1.1062 for the bearish ranging within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • Fibo resistance at 1.1062 located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the daily chart, and
  • Fibo support level at 1.0520 located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area of the chart.
The price is breaking 50.0% Fibo support level at 1.0788 for the bearish trend to be continuing with 1.0520 as the next bearish target.


Resistance
Support
1.10621.0788
1.1419
1.0520

If the price will break 50.0% Fibo support level at 1.0788 on close daily bas so the bearish trend will be continuing with the secondary ranging up to 1.0520 level as the next target to re-enter
If the price will break Fibo resistance at 1.1062 from below to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Trend:

D1 - ranging bearish
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.19 07:40

Forex Weekly Outlook December 21-24 (based on the article)

US and Canadian GDP data, US Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment claims are the final highlights before Christmas break. Here is an outlook on these major events.

Last week the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade showing faith in the U.S. economy. The central bank raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to between 0.25% and 0.50. Policy makers reiterated that the US economy is performing well and is expected to improve further. The labor market advanced considerably reaching an unemployment rate of 5%. Furthermore, inflation is expected to rise over the medium term towards the 2 % target. Fed officials declared that the rate hike was the beginning of a “gradual” tightening cycle.

  1. US Final GDP: Tuesday, 13:30. The US economy advanced more than previously estimated in the second quarter. Data showed the world’s biggest economy expanded at an annual pace of 3.9% between April and June, while economists expected GDP to stay unchanged at 3.7%. This was a welcome change from the sluggish 0.6% growth recorded in the first quarter of 2015. Economists expect GDP to rise 1.9% in the third quarter.
  2. Canadian GDP: Wednesday, 13:30. Canada’s economy broke a three-month winning streak in September with a 0.5% GDP contraction. The energy sector weighed on output with a 5.5% decline in oil prices, raising concerns over growth in the last quarter of 2015. There were also declines in manufacturing, wholesale trade. Nevertheless, Canadian economy expanded in the third quarter posting a 2.3% growth rate on an annualized basis, following two straight quarters of contraction. However, economists do not expect such strong growth in the fourth quarter.
  3. US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 13:30.  Orders for long-lasting products registered solid gain of 3.0% in October following two months of declines. Business investment was the major contributor with a 1.3% rise. Demand for commercial aircraft also increased. Meanwhile, core orders excluding transportation items rose by seasonally adjusted 0.5% in October, beating forecasts for a 0.3% increase. Durable orders are expected to decline 0.6%. while Core orders are predicted to rise 0.1%.
  4. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30.  The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week from a five-month high of 282,000 to 271,000, suggesting continued improvement in the US labor market. It was the 41st straight week that claims remained below 300,000. This reading backs the Fed rate hike decision made a day earlier. While claims tend to be volatile around the holiday session, the trend continued to point to a robust employment conditions. The four-week moving average of claims slipped 250 to 270,500 last week. The number of jobless claims is expected to reach 270,000 this week.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.20 13:51

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook by Morgan Stanley (based on the article)

Morgan Stanley made a fundamental forecast fr this pair by telling that "EUR downside may be limited":

  • "The EUR is currently driven by the global risk environment."
  • "Over the past year the EUR has been turned into a global funding currency, strengthening when risk sells off. In general, the fall in the oil price and commodities more broadly has put pressure on the credit markets in the US. There appears to be no sign of a turnaround in oil markets, suggesting that EUR downside may be limited. We watch for the point at which Draghi becomes worried about inflation once again for the EUR to turn lower."

Let's evaluate this forecast with the technical point of view.

W1 price is located to be below S1 Pivot at 1.0672 and above S2 Pivot at 1.0672 in the primary bearish market condition. Symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for direction, and RSI indicator is estimating the bearish trend to be continuing with the secondary ranging.

If price will break S1 Pivot at 1.1337 from below to above so the local uptrend as the secondary market rally will be started within the primary bearish market condition up to Central YR1 Pivot at 1.2665 as the next target.
If the price will break S2 Pivot at 1.0672 from above to below on close weekly bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging between the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close price to break 1.1337 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch W1 price to break 1.0672 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bearish


InstrumentS2 Pivot
S1 Pivot
Yearly PP
R1 Pivot
EUR/USD 1.0672
1.1337 1.2665
 1.3329

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.21 07:18

EUR/USD and GBP/USD: End Of Week Technicals by Barclays Capital (adapted from the article)

Barclays is forecasting the EUR/USD price and GBP/USD price at year-end as the following:

EUR/USD. Ranging. Weekly price is on bearish for the ranging within 1.1713 key erversal reversal level and 1.0520 key support bearish level. RSI indicator is estimating for the ranging bearish trend to be continuing. The most likely scenario for the price movement up to the end of this year is the ranging trend to be continuing within 1.1713/1.0520 s/r area.


Resistance
Support
1.1095
1.0557
1.1713
1.0520

GBP/USD. Bearish. The price is located below 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA for the ranging bearish breakdown: price is breaking descending triangle pattern to below with 1.4864 support level for the bearish trend to be continuing with 1.4565 support level as the next bearish target. The most like scenario for this pair to be moved at the end of the year is the following: bearish breakdown will be continuing with 1.4565 target level.


Resistance
 Support
1.10951.0557
1.17131.0520

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.21 09:31

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - German Producer Price Index and 10 pips price movement

2014-12-21 07:00 GMT | [EUR - German PPI]

[EUR - German PPI] = Change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when manufacturers charge more for goods the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.


==========

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EURUSD M5: 10 pips price movement by EUR - German PPI news event :



 

EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - waiting for direction to break the levels

M5 price is ranging near SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) waiting for the direction for the possible breakout or breakdown.

The key support/resistance levels for this pair are the following:

  • 1.0882 resistance level located above 100-SMA/200-SMA in the bullish area of the chart, and
  • 1.0847 support level located below 100-SMA/200-SMA in the bearish area.

RSI indicator is estimatting the ranging condition by direction.

  • If the price will break 1.0882 resistance level so we may see the bullish trend to be started on this timeframe.
  • If price will break 1.0847 support so the bearish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging condition.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.08821.0847
N/A
N/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0847 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.0882 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : waiting for direction
 

Sergey Golubev:

  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0847 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.0882 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

Resistance level at 1.0882 was broken by the price to above with good intra-day breakout and with +47 pips in profit for now. The price is breaking 1.0929 resistance level for the breakout to be continuing.


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