Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 136

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.16 18:11

Trading News Events: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Interest Rate Decision (based on the article)

Based on Fed Funds Futures, market participants are pricing a 76% probability for a rate-hike a the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) December 16 interest rate decision, and the fresh updates coming out of the central bank may instill a bullish U.S. dollar outlook for 2016 should Chair Janet and Co. outline a more detailed exit-strategy.

What’s Expected:


Why Is This Event Important:

Even though the FOMC remains on course to shift gears, a split decision to implement higher borrowing-costs accompanied by a downward revision in the central bank’s updated forecasts may drag on rate expectations, and the dollar stands at risk of facing near-term headwinds over the remainder of the month should the ‘data dependent’ Fed highlight a wait-and-see approach for the year ahead.

However, subdued wage growth paired with the ongoing weakness in household consumption may push the FOMC to temper market expectations, and the greenback may struggle to hold its ground should the committee outline a more shallow path for interest rates.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: Fed Lifts Benchmark Interest Rate, Warns of Higher Borrowing-Costs in 2016

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the rate decision to consider a short EUR/USD position.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.
Bearish USD Trade: FOMC Implements ‘Dovish’ Rate-Hike, Endorses Wait-and-See Approach
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same strategy as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily


  • Despite bets for the first Fed rate-hike in nearly a decade, the near-term rally in EUR/USD following the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision may gather pace in the days ahead especially as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be breaking out of the bearish formation carried over from back in August.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1052 (November high) to 1.1090 (50% retracement)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.16 20:22

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - Federal Funds Rate and 15 pips price movement

2014-12-16 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

[USD - Federal Funds Rate]= Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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EURUSD M5: 81 pips price movement by USD - Federal Funds Rate news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.17 08:02

Forecast for Tomorrow - levels for EUR/USD: Euro drops to 10-day low (adapted from the article)

  • "The Euro is facing swelling selling pressure against the US Dollar in the aftermath of the FOMC monetary policy announcement, with prices dropping to a two-week low. The pair topped below the 1.11 figure having rebounded following the ECB rate decision."
  • "Near-term support is in the 1.0777-1.0818 area, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion and the May 27 low."
  • "A daily close below this barrier paves the way for a test of the 38.2% level at 1.0602."

H4 price is located above SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and above SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) for the ranging within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1059 resistance level located far above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart, and
  • 1.0520 support level located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart.

RSI indicator is estimating the bearish reversal to be started in the near future with the secondary ranging market condition. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price with 1.0831 support level to be crossed for good possible breakout.

  • If the price will break 1.1059 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing without ranging.
  • If price will break 1.0831 support so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If price will break 1.0520 support so we may see good bearish breakdown.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.10591.0831
N/A
1.0520


  • Recommendation to go short: watch close H4 price to break 1.0831 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch close H4 price to break 1.1059 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging on bearish reversal

TREND : waiting for direction

 

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AUDUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 13.12 - 20.12: correction for the possible bearish reversal

Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.17 11:15

AUD/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging on reversal levels

M5 price is ranging around 200 period SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart with the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 0.7223 resistance level located above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
  • 0.7179 support level located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area of the chart.

Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging bullish condition in the near future.

  • If the price will break 0.7223 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing without the secondary ranging.
  • If price will break 0.7179 support so the bearish reversal will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
0.72230.7179
0.72790.7159


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 0.7179 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 0.7223 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : waiting for direction

 

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 13.12 - 20.12: ranging on reversal

Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.17 18:07

EUR/USD Price Action Analysis - 50.0% Fibo support level to be crossed for the breakdown to be continuing

D1 price is located below 200 day SMA and 100 day SMA for the primary bearish market condition: the price was bounced from Fibo resistance level at 1.1043 for the bearish breakdown breaking 23.6% Fibo level at 1.0932 and 38.2% Fibo level at 1.0852. The price was stopped near and above 50.0% Fibo support level at 1.0788 trying to cross it from above to below for the bearish breakdown to be continuing with 61.8% Fibo support level at 1.0727 as the next bearish target.


If the price will break 50.0% Fibo support level at 1.0788 so the bearish breakdown will be continuing up to 61.8% Fibo support level at 1.0727 as the next bearish target.
If the price will break Fibo resistance level at 1.1043 from below to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Trend:

D1 - bearish breakdown

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.18 07:35

EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging bullish; waiting to break the levels (adapted from the article)

Societe Generale is forecasting the ranging market condition for EUR/USD intra-day prices: "A break below 1.08 will lead to test of next retracement levels at 1.0730 and even 1.0650." Let's review the situation with the technical points of view.

M5 price is located above SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and above SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) on the primary bullish market condition with the secondary ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • 1.0872 resistance level located above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of intra-day chart, and
  • 1.0832 support level located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart.

The price is breaking 1.0857 resistance level to above together with ascending triangle pattern for the bullish trend to be continuing. RSI indicator is estimating the bullish breakdown to be started in the near future.

  • If the price will break 1.0872 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1.0832 support so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started with the secondary ranging.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.08571.0832
1.0872N/A



  • Recommendation to go short: watch close price to break 1.0832 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch close price to break 1.0872 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bullish

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish

 

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AUDUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 13.12 - 20.12: correction for the possible bearish reversal

Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.18 10:30

AUD/USD: End Of Week Technicals - Ranging Bearish Breakdown

D1 price is on ranging bearish breakdown: the price broke Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bullish and the primary bearish on the chart. Daily price is located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart trying to break 0.7096 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing. descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the breakdown, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bearish market condition to be continuing in the near future.

If the price will break 0.7096 support level on close daily bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing with 0.7015 level as the next target.
If the price will break 0.7384 resistance level so the price will be fully reversed to the bullish market condition with good breakout possibility.

If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 0.7384 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 0.7096 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish breakdown
Resistance
Support
0.72820.7096
0.7384
0.7015

SUMMARY : ranging
TREND : bearish


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.18 13:26

USD/CAD Intra-Day Analysis - Bank of Canada Core CPI and and intra-day price to be ranging near reversal

2014-12-18 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Core CPI m/m]

  • past data is 0.3%
  • forecast data is 0.0%
  • actual data is N/A according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[Bank of Canada Core CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the 8 most volatile items.

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M5 price is located above SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) on the primary bullish market condition with the secondary ranging within 1.3786 resistance level and 1.3724 support level.

  • If the price will break 1.3986 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1.3924 support so we may see the reversal of intra-day price movement to the primary bearish market condition.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.39701.3924
1.39861.3942


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.3924 support level on close M5 bar for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch close M5 price to break 1.3986 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish market condition

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

USDCAD, M5, 2015.12.18

USDCAD M5: 75 pips price movement by CAD - CPI news event

USDCAD, M5, 2015.12.18, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



 

Forecast for Tomorrow - levels for Silver (XAG/USD)

H4 price is breaking Ichimoku cloud from below to above: the price crossed Senkou Span line and stopped near/below 14.14 resistance level which is located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. Chinkou Span line broke the price to above for the ranging bullish by direction, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bullish trend to be started in the near future. 

Resistance
Support
14.1413.86
14.2813.64


If H4 price will break 13.86 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If H4 price will break 14.14 resistance level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started with the secondary ranging.
If H4 price will break 14.28 resistance level so the price will be fully reversed to the bullish condition with possible breakout.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 14.14 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 13.86 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging on the bullish reversal
 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.21 09:31

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - German Producer Price Index and 10 pips price movement

2014-12-21 07:00 GMT | [EUR - German PPI]

[EUR - German PPI] = Change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when manufacturers charge more for goods the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.


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EURUSD M5: 10 pips price movement by EUR - German PPI news event :



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