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Candlestick Charting - Bearish Engulfing Pattern
Libraries: MQL5 Wizard - Candlestick Patterns Class
newdigital, 2013.09.11 16:21Bearish Engulfing Pattern
The Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern is a bearish reversal pattern, usually occuring at the top of an uptrend. The pattern consists of two Candlesticks:
Generally, the bullish candle real body of Day 1 is contained within the real body of the bearish candle of Day 2.
The market gaps up (bullish sign) on Day 2; but, the bulls do not push very far higher before bears take over and push prices further down, not only filling in the gap down from the morning's open but also pushing prices below the previous day's open.
With the Bullish Engulfing Pattern, there is an incredible change of sentiment from the bullish gap up at the open, to the large bearish real body candle that closed at the lows of the day. Bears have successfully overtaken bulls for the day and possibly for the next few periods.
The chart below of Verizon (VZ) stock shows an example two Bearish Engulfing Patterns occuring at the end of uptrends:
Three methodologies for selling using the Bearish Engulfing Pattern are listed below in order of most aggressive to most conservative:
An example of what usually occurs intra-day during a Bearish Engulfing Pattern is presented next.Intra-day Bearish Engulfing Pattern
The following 15-minute chart of Verizon (VZ) is of the 2-day period comprising the Bearish Engulfing Pattern example on the prior page:
Hello Sergey Golubev,
Do you have any course for free?
Thank you in advance!
Hello Sergey Golubev,
Do you have any course for free?
Thank you in advance!
Trading The Martingale and Anti Martingale Strategies
In today's lesson we are going to look at the two categories that most position sizing strategies fall into which are known as martingale strategies and anti martingale strategies.
A position sizing strategy which incorporates the martingale technique is basically any strategy which increases the trade size as a trade moves against the trader or after a losing trade. On the flip side a position sizing strategy which incorporates the anti martingale technique is basically any strategy which increases the trade size as the trade moves in the traders favor or after a winning trade.
The most basic martingale strategy is one in which the trader trades a set position size at the beginning of his trading strategy and then double's the size of his trades after each unprofitable trade, returning back to the original position size only after a profitable trade. Using this strategy no matter how large the string of losing trades a trader faces, on the next winning trade they will make up all their losses plus a profit equal to the profit on their original trade size.
As an example lets say that a trader is using a strategy on the full size EUR/USD Forex contract that takes profits and losses both at the 200 point level (I like using the EUR/USD Forex contract because it has a fixed point value of $1 per contract for mini forex contracts and $10 per contract for full sized contracts but the example is the same for any instrument)
The trader starts with $100,000 in his account and decides that his starting position size will be 3 contracts (300,000) and that he will use the basic martingale strategy to place his trades. Using the below 10 trades here is how it would work.
As you can see from the example although the trader was down significantly going into the 10th trade, as the 10th trade was profitable he made up all the his losses plus a brought the account profitable by the equity high of the account plus original profit target of $6000.
At first glance the above method can seem very sound and people often point to their perception that the chances of having a winning trade increase after a string of loosing trades. Mathematically however the large majority of strategies work like flipping a coin, in that the chances of having a profitable trade on the next trade is completely independent of how many profitable or unprofitable trades one has leading up to that trade. As when flipping a coin no matter how many times you flip heads the chances of flipping tails on the next flip of the coin are still 50/50.
The second problem with this method is that it requires an unlimited amount of money to ensure success. Looking at our trade example again but replacing the last trade with another loosing trade instead of a winner, you can see that the trader is now in a position where, at the normal $1000 per contract margin level required, he does not have enough money in his account to put up the necessary margin which is required to initiate the next 48 contract position
So while the pure martingale strategy and variations of it can produce successful results for extended periods of time, as I hope the above shows, odds are that it will eventually end up in blowing ones account completely.
With this in mind the large majority of successful traders that I have seen follow anti martingale strategies which increase size when trades are profitable, never when unprofitable.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Trading: What is Martingale and Is It Reasonable to Use It?
Proximus, 2013.08.24 03:00
It works if the net profit factor is above 1 and the win rate is higher than 50%, martingale is a double or nothing either doubles your money or doubles your losses, so if you have a 60% win rate with 1:1 RR ratio you can use it safely, if not then dont.
Whats funny about forex that you dont start from 50% win rate from the start because the market is changing not a fix probability set like a roulette or blackjack game.So if you start it like a betting system you will have like 40% win rate with 1:1 RR if you take trades random, maybe on the 9999999999999999999999th trade you hit 49.9% but thats still not enough.So it is better to filter out crappy trades first and then increase your win rate to be martingale compatible! And this is the advantage of investing vs gambling, you can filter out bad trades, on the roulette or blackjack you cant filter out bad hands or spins unless you cheat, but surely not the statistical way!!
This is how my 60% win rate, real martingale system looks like, and how it should suppose to look like, on LEVEL 7 settings (2^7)
Here are my martingale type systems:
1) CLASSICAL MARTINGALE AFTER 567 TRADES (60% WR, 1:1 RR)
As you can see after 500 trades it barely hit LEVEL 7 and even if we would lost that we would lose only half of the profit and continue from there to grow it back!
Of course you need a big account for this like one that can support like 10 lot size trades to be only 1% account risk, but statistically its very improbable to blow your account since its only 1% risk versus huge potential gains...The martingale presented in this article is BS with like 40-45% win rate which is sadly not enough, not even 50% is, must be 51 or higher...
2) PROGRESSIVE DYNAMIC GROWTH MARTINGALE (60% WR, 1:1 RR)
3) PROGRESSIVE STATIC GROWTH MARTINGALE (60% WR, 1:1 RR)
4) ANTI MARTINGALE or INVERSE MARTINGALE (60% WR, 1:1 RR)
enjoy and good programming ;)
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.23 07:42
Martingale, Hedging and Grid
The forum threads
AmiBroker : converted from/to - the thread
This is a video for learning the basics of Ichimoku. The video will cover all of the components and what to look for and also how to trade 2 of the ichimoku signals.
Here we give a quick overview of the Ichimoku components. Next video will talk about reading the market and the signals generated by the Ichimoku. Also we will learn how to trade this system in the next video so keep an eye out!
The Ichimoku chart is made up of five separate elements which are designed to be considered together as a complete picture to provide a perspective on the equilibrium of the current price. These are:
A moving average of the highest high and lowest low over the last 9 trading days.
A moving average of the highest high and lowest low over the last 26 trading days.
The average of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen, plotted 26 days ahead.
The average of the highest high and lowest low over the last 52 days, plotted 26 days ahead.
The closing price plotted 26 days behind.
The area between the two Senkou Spans is called the Kumo (Cloud).
4 Day Trading Strategies for Beginners (How to Trade Stocks)
As we discussed in our last lesson the forex market is an over the counter market meaning that there is no centralized exchange where all trades are made. Because of this, the price that someone receives when trading forex has traditionally differed depending on the size of the transaction and the sophistication of the person or entity that is making that transaction.
At the center or first level of the market is something known as the Interbank market. While technically any bank is part of the Interbank market, when an FX Trader speaks of the interbank market he or she is really talking about the 10 or so largest banks that make markets in FX. These institutions make up over 75% of the over $3 Trillion dollars in FX Traded on any given day.
There are two primary factors which separate institutions with direct interbank access from everyone else which are:
1. Access to the tightest prices. We will learn more about transaction costs in later lessons however for now simply understand that for every 1 Million in currency traded those who have direct access to the Interbank market save approximately $100 per trade or more over the next level of participants.
2. Access to the best liquidity. As with any other market there is a certain amount of liquidity or amount that can be traded at any one price. If more than what is available at the current price is traded, then the price adjusts until additional liquidity enters the market. As the forex market is over the counter, liquidity is spread out among different providers, with the banks comprising the interbank market having access to the greatest amount of liquidity and then declining levels of liquidity available at different levels moving away from the Interbank market.
In contrast to individuals who make a deposit into their account to trade, institutions trading in the interbank market trade via credit lines. In order to get a credit line from a top bank to trade foreign exchange you must be a very large and very financially stable institution, as bankruptcy would mean the firm that gave you the credit line gets stuck with your trades.
The next level of participants are the hedge funds, brokerage firms, and smaller banks who are not quite large enough to have direct access to the Interbank market. As we just discussed the difference here is that the transaction costs for the trade are a bit higher and the liquidity available is a bit lower than at the Interbank level.
The next level of participants has traditionally been corporations and smaller financial institutions who do make foreign exchange trades, but not enough to warrant the better pricing
As you can see here, traditionally as the market participant got smaller and less sophisticated the transaction costs they paid to trade became larger and the liquidity that was available to them got smaller and smaller. In a lot of cases this is still true today, as anyone who has ever exchanged currencies at the airport when traveling knows.
To give you an idea of just how large a difference there is between participants in the Interbank market and an individual trading currencies for travel, Interbank market participants pay approximately $.0001 to exchange Euros for Dollars where Individuals in the airport can pay $.05 or more. This may not seem like much of a difference but think about it this way: On $10,000 that is $1 that the Interbank participant pays and $500 that the individual pays.
The landscape for the individual trader has changed drastically since the internet has gone mainstream however, in many ways leveling the playing field and putting the individual trader along side large financial institutions in terms of access to pricing and liquidity. This will be the topic of our next lesson.
Before the internet, very few individuals traded foreign exchange as they could not get access to a level of pricing that would allow them a reasonable chance to profit after transaction costs. Shortly after the internet became mainstream however several firms built online trading platforms which gave the individual trader a much higher level access to the market. The internet introduced two main features into the equation which were not present before:
1. Streaming Quotes: The Internet allowed these firms to stream quotes directly to traders and then have them execute on those quotes from their computer instead of having to deal over the phone. This automated trade processing, and therefore made it easier for firms to offer the ability to trade fx to the individuals and still be profitable.
2. Automatic Margin Calls: What is not so obvious but what was perhaps even more key is that the internet allowed an automated margin call feature to be built into the platform. This allowed firms to accept cash deposits from clients instead of having to put them through the process of signing up to trade via a credit line. As we discussed in our last lesson it is very difficult to get a credit line to trade FX and for those who do it is a lot of paperwork and hoops to jump through before they can begin trading. This would have made it impossible to offer FX trading to smaller individual traders as the cost involved in getting them set up to trade would not be worth it.
As the electronic platform allowed clients to deposit funds and then automatically cut them out of positions if they got to low on funds, this negated the need for credit lines and made the work to get an individual account open well worth it to the forex broker from a profit standpoint.
If you don't understand all the ins and outs of margin at this point don't worry as this is something that we are going to go into much more detail on in a later lesson.
For now it is simply important to understand that what these firms did was take all the traders who were not big enough by themselves to get access to good pricing and routed their order flow through one entity that was. This allowed these firms access to much tighter pricing than would otherwise have been possible which was then passed along plus a little for the brokers to the end client.
So now you can see why although the forex market has been around for a relatively long period of time, individuals have only started to trade the market over the last few years.
Anther key thing that it is important to understand here is that the larger a firm gets in terms of trading volume, the greater access that firm has to tighter prices and liquidity and the more likely that firm is to be able to pass on better pricing and execution to their clients.
A lesson on how the central banks of the world participate in the foreign exchange market and move the forex market up and down for their economic benefit.