Press review - page 546

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113474
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Retail Sales and range price movement 

2017-08-13 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. 

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From official report :

  • "The total volume of retail sales rose 2.0 percent."
  • "The food and beverage industry had the largest increase in the series, up 4.2 percent. The record increase reflects the influx of sporting fans and visitors for the World Masters Games and the Lions rugby tour held in New Zealand during the June quarter."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand Retail Sales news event 

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113474
Sergey Golubev  

USD/JPY - daily bearish; 108.72 is the key (based on the article)

The price on the daily chart is below Ichimoku cloud for the primary bearish market condition by trying to break support level at 108.72 to below for the bearish trend to be continuing, otherwise - bearish ranging within the levels.


  • "Based on a current one-week implied volatility level of 8.63% the expected one-standard deviation range for the next week is 10844-11106. Looking lower, if Friday’s low fails the next area of support arrives at the April lows at 10813, with a closing worst at that time of 10843. The projected low of 10844 is in nearly precise alignment. Watch for support to hold should another dive lower take shape."
  • "Looking higher USDJPY still has work to do to break the downtrend dating back to the 7/11 high. Should it find continued buying pressure a rebound unfolding towards the projected high of 11106 could stall. There lies resistance in the vicinity from a swing-high this month which lost momentum around prior support going back to the third week of June. This may be an area where sellers step in and keep USDJPY from furthering any attempt to rally in the near-term."

USDJPY Options Projected One-Week Range Aligns with Key Levels
USDJPY Options Projected One-Week Range Aligns with Key Levels
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
In the table displayed below, are implied volatility (IV) levels for major USD-pairs for the next one-day and one-week time periods. Using levels of IV we calculated the projected range-low/high prices from the current spot price within one-standard deviation for specified periods. (Statistically, there is a 68% probability that price will...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113474
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and range price movement 

2017-08-15 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. 

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From rttnews article :

  • "Members of the Reserve Bank of Australia's Monetary Policy Board have noted the continued improvement of global economic conditions, minutes from the bank's August 1 meeting revealed on Tuesday. At the meeting, the central bank decided to leave its key interest rate unchanged at a record low 1.50 percent for the eleventh consecutive meeting."
  • "Taking account of the available information and the need to balance the risks associated with high household debt in a low-inflation environment, the board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event 

Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Board | RBA
  • www.rba.gov.au
Minutes of the monetary policy meetings of the Reserve Bank Board are published two weeks after each meeting, and explain the monetary policy decision. The Reserve Bank Board normally meets eleven times each year, on the first Tuesday of each month, except January.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113474
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD - daily bullish with 1.1892/1.1688 ranging levels (based on the article)

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is on ranging within 1.1892/1.1688 narrow s/r levels for the bullish trend to be continuing or for the secondary correction to be started.


  • "The Euro has managed to find interim support below the 1.17 figure against the US Dollar but the break of near-term trend support still hints at a downside bias. Prices turned lower as expected after hitting the highest level since January 2015 in the wake of July’s decidedly upbeat US employment statistics."
  • "A daily close below the August 9 low at 1.1688 opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1608. Alternatively, a push above the 1.1875-1.1910 area marked by the 23.6% Fib expansion and the August 2 high paves the way for a test of the 38.2% threshold at 1.1990."

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Finds Support But Bias Bearish
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Finds Support But Bias Bearish
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
The Euro has managed to find interim support below the 1.17 figure against the US Dollar but the break of near-term trend support still hints at a downside bias. Prices turned lower as A daily close below the August 9 low at 1.1688 opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1608. Alternatively, a push above the...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113474
Sergey Golubev  

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, Dollar Index and GOLD (XAU/USD): U.S. Advance Retail Sales

2017-08-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From marketwatch article :

  • "Sales at U.S. retailers surged in July to the highest level of 2017, aided by strong demand for new autos and Amazon’s Prime Day shopping specials.""Sales at retailers nationwide jumped 0.6% last month, the government said Tuesday. A mysterious decline in spending at the end of the second quarter, meanwhile, vanished after fresh government revisions based on newly incorporated sales data."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events


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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113474
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Labour Price Index and range price movement 

2017-08-15 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Wage Price Index]

  • past data is 0.6%
  • forecast data is 0.5%
  • actual data is 0.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Wage Price Index] = Change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, excluding bonuses. 

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From official report :

  • "The trend and seasonally adjusted indexes for Australia both rose 0.5% in the June quarter 2017. This continues the subdued rate of wage growth recorded by the series over the last two years."
  • "The trend and seasonally adjusted indexes for Australia both rose 1.9% through the year to the June quarter 2017. This historically low level of growth for both series has been recorded for the last four quarters."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Labour Price Index news event 

6345.0 - Wage Price Index, Australia, Jun 2017
  • www.abs.gov.au
JUNE KEY FIGURES JUNE KEY POINTS TOTAL HOURLY RATES OF PAY EXCLUDING BONUSES QUARTERLY CHANGE (MAR QTR 2017 TO JUN QTR 2017) The trend and seasonally adjusted indexes for Australia both rose 0.5% in the June quarter 2017. This continues the subdued rate of wage growth recorded by the series over the last two years. The Private sector...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113474
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD - daily correction; 0.7228  is the key (based on the article)

Price on the daily chart is above 200-SMA 'reversal' level in the bullish trend with the secondary correction started in the end of Juy this year: the price is breaking 0.7228 support level together with descending triangle pattern to below for the correction to be continuing.


  • "The New Zealand Dollar resumed the downtrend started in late July against its US cousin after a brief consolidative pause, hitting the lowest level in a month. Resumption was triggered after US retail sales data topped consensus forecasts, sending the greenback broadly higher (as expected)."
  • "From here, a daily close below the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7188 opens the door for a test of the 61.8% level at 0.7101. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 38.2% Fib at 0.7276 sees the next upside barrier at 0.7384, marked by the 23.6% retracement."

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Aiming to Test Below 0.72 Figure
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Aiming to Test Below 0.72 Figure
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
Dollar resumed the downtrend started in late July against its US cousin after a brief consolidative pause, hitting the lowest level in a month. Resumption was triggered after US retail sales data From here, a daily close below the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7188 opens the door for a test of the 61.8% level at 0.7101. Alternatively, a...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113474
Sergey Golubev  

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and GOLD (XAU/USD): U.S. Residential Building Permits

2017-08-16 13:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]

  • past data is 1.28M
  • forecast data is 1.25M
  • actual data is 1.22M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Building Permits] = Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month.

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From reuters article :

  • "U.S. homebuilding unexpectedly fell in July amid broad declines in single- and multi-family home construction, suggesting the housing market was struggling to rebound after slumping in the second quarter."
  • "Housing starts declined 4.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.16 million units, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. June's sales pace was revised down to 1.21 million units from the previously reported 1.22 million units."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Residential Building Permits news events


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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Residential Building Permits news events


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113474
Sergey Golubev  

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day ranging bearish reversal; daily correction

2017-08-16 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is -6.5M
  • forecast data is -3.0M
  • actual data is -8.9M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 8.9M million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: ranging bullish reversal. The price is finally broke 100-SMA/200-SMA reversal levels for the primary bearish market condition. Price is breaking 50.61 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.

If the price breaks 51.32 resistance level to above on M5 close bar so the bullish reversal will be started.
If the price breaks 50.61 to below on M5 close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


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Crude Oil Daily: correction. Price on the daily chart is located in the bullish area with the secondary correction: the support level at 50.01 is testing to below for the correction to be continuing, otherwise - bullish ranging within the levels.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113474
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Employment Change and range price movement 

2017-08-17 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 20.0K
  • forecast data is 19.8K
  • actual data is 27.9K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month. 

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From official report :

  • "Employment increased 27,900 to 12,201,400. Full-time employment decreased 20,300 to 8,342,300 and part-time employment increased 48,200 to 3,859,100."
  • "Unemployment rate decreased by less than 0.1 pts to 5.6%."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Employment Change news event 

6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, Jul 2017
  • www.abs.gov.au
JULY KEY FIGURES JULY KEY POINTS TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE) Employment increased 26,000 to 12,196,900. Unemployment decreased 1,800 to 726,000. Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.6%. Participation rate increased by less than 0.1 pts, but remained at 65.0% in rounded terms. Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 5.2 million...