Forecast and levels for Oil - page 6

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.07 17:05

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)


Crude Oil - "The logical question is why a tropical storm or a potential hurricane might negatively impact Oil prices. Many will observe rising gasoline prices during a similar types of crisis, so why might Oil prices be moving down while Gas prices are going up? We saw something similar show in latter-August around Hurricane Harvey when a large number of refinement operations in South Texas, around the Gulf of Mexico, were knocked offline. This highlighted that the Oil being extracted could not be refined into Gasoline, at least not at the same pace as prior; so supplies built-up as refiners battled to recover from the devastation of the hurricane’s impact. This building supply glut of Crude meant that prices moved-lower as markets wrestled with the prospect of an even bigger picture-slowdown. And in latter-August, we saw WTI fall below the $46-level as worries about the Hurricane’s impact continued to build."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.13 07:33

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day ranging near bullish reversal; daily bullish ranging for direction

2017-10-12 16:00 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is -6.0M
  • forecast data is -1.9M
  • actual data is -2.7M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.7 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M15: ranging near bullish reversal. The price is located near and below 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal levels in the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within 56.57/56.45 support/resistance levels.

If the price breaks 56.57 resistance level to above on M15 close bar so the bullish reversal will be started.
If the price breaks 56.45 support level to below on M15 close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


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Crude Oil Daily: bullish ranging for direction. Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart for 57.25 resistance level to be testing to above for the bullish trend to be continuing with 59.48 nearest bullish target to re-enter., otherwise - the ranging within the levels.


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Chart #1.
The chart was made on M15 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 except the following indicator (free to download):

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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Chart #2.
The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


 
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.18 17:00

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bearish breakdown; daily bullish; 59.48 is the key

2017-10-18 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is --2.7M
  • forecast data is -4.7M
  • actual data is -5.7M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 5.7 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: bearish breakdown. The price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition.

If the price breaks 58.10 resistance level to above on M5 close bar so the secondary correction within the primary bearish trend will be started.
If the price breaks 57.82 support level to below on M5 close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


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Crude Oil Daily: bullish. Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart for ascending triangle pattern to be crossing to above together with 59.48 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing.


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Chart #1.
The chart was made on M15 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 except the following indicator (free to download):

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Chart #2.
The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.27 15:52

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, USD/CNH and Brent Crude Oil: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2017-10-27 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the third quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent."
  • "The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 29, 2017."

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GBP/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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USD/CNH M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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Brent Crude Oil M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.28 11:49

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)


Crude Oil - "Oil traders learned this week that Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of the de facto head of OPEC told markets that he envisioned the energy industry entering a ‘new era.’ Such an era would have the industry lead by similar supply-side controls like the one engaged in by OPEC and select non-OPEC companies like Russia going forward. Proactive supply-side controls are only being engaged for the Brent Oil contract, the global benchmark as the EIA showed on Wednesday the US continues to gush oil. The EIA Crude Oil inventory report showed US exports rose to the second highest level on record exceeding 1 million per day for the fifth straight week."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.01 17:00

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bearish breakdown; daily bullish ranging within narrow 61.16/60.50

2017-11-08 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is 0.9M
  • forecast data is -1.5M
  • actual data is -2.4M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.4 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: bearish breakdown. The price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for the bearish reversal.

If the price breaks 61.17 resistance level to above on M5 close bar so the secondary rally within the primary bearish trend will be started.
If the price breaks 60.48 support level to below on M5 close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


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Crude Oil Daily: bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels. Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart for the ranging within the narrow support resistance levels: 61.16 resistance for the bullish trend to be resumed and 60.50 support level for the daily correction to be started


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Chart #1.
The chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

Chart #2.
The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.07 06:37

Brent Crude Oil - Back To $100 Again (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish breakout located to be above Ichimoku cloud for 64.42 resistance level to be broken on close daily bar for the daily breakout to be continuing. The next bullish target is monthly bullish resistance level at 84.71.


  • "The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) wants oil prices to head back to $100. And there are a couple of ways of achieving this ambitious goal. One of them is to manage traders’ and investors’ expectations about oil inventories, by creating the sense of an oil oversupply when there isn’t any. That could cause a “short squeeze,” when reality sets in, and traders realize that the oil market is undersupplied rather than oversupplied. Especially in winter months, when demand for heating oil peaks."
  • "That’s a dream scenario for American frackers and Russians, who would have to pump oil as fast as they can to make up any supply shortfall to America’s allies."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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WTI Crude up over 25% in 2 months! Is it still a buy?

Jason Sen, 2017.11.08 16:47

WTI Crude has staged the greatest rally since the beginning of 2016, when crude oil doubled in just four months.

The daily chart below shows a 35% gain in less than five months from the low in June. The price recently sailed through the previous high set in January of this year at $55.24 and is revisiting levels not seen since mid 2015.

A fantastic run for bulls, but can this continue?

The weekly chart below shows the longer-term picture, showing the stunning collapse in the first half of the chart from just over $112 to a low of just over two years later at $26.05. Bulls want to know if this is just the start of the trend or just a bounce in a longer term bear trend.

Crude Day Chart


The daily chart above certainly looks very positive with resistance of any major concern above. The price is well above any downward sloping trendlines and accelerating away from the longer term moving averages. The blue 100 day moving average has begun to turn higher and look set to cross over the 200 day moving average for a bullish signal in the days ahead. The 55 day moving average has already crossed above both these and is accelerating higher. We are even pushing above the outer boundaries of the Bollinger bands. Is there nothing to hold the bulls back?

As you know by now, I always warn it is very important to monitor the longer-term charts, no matter how much of a short term trader you are. Back to the weekly chart below you see the price approaching an important longer term 38.2% Fibonacci resistance at $58.97. Coupled with that is equally important downward sloping 200 week moving average, just starting to dip below this Fibonacci level.


Crude Chart 2

This is the most important area of resistance, as we crossed back above the 23.6% Fibonacci level and 100 day moving average at $46.20/46.40. In severely overbought conditions on both the daily and weekly charts, there is an obvious risk of a peak to the 22 month recovery. Just above at that $59 level meets the upward sloping 17 month trendline (from June 2016) at around $60.50.

Bulls will need to break through this level to remain in full control of the price, and then tackle the (less important) 2015 year high at $62.58.

If you are a WTI Crude bear looking for a low risk selling opportunity, it could be worth trying shorts in the $59-$60 area with a stop above that 2015 year high. There is great profit potential on a short position if we reject those resistance levels, with a move back below the January high at $55.24, signalling further weakness. We should then target the mid-$53 area before testing the September high at $52.86, but there is certainly room to move as far as strong support in the $47-$46 area.

Author:  Jason Sen / Day Trade Ideas


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.17 07:36

Crude Oil - daily bullish ranging; 64.63 for the bullish trend to be continuing; 61.19 for the correction to be started (based on the article)

Daily price is located above 55 SMA/200 SMA in the strong bullish area of the chart. The price was bounced from resistance level at 64.63 to below for the secondary correction to be started if the support level at 61.19 is going to be broken by blow on the close daily bar.


  • "The price of Crude Oil is off the highest prices of the month as investors digest a recent EIA report showing the first build in crude and crude products in two months and as they await clarity on OPEC+ (a moniker for OPEC and strategic alliances like Russia.) Traders should note the finish to the year has been kind to Crude recently, and the charts are suggesting we could see a similar rally, but traders may have to put up with the volatility that proves directionless until the Nov. 30 meeting of OPEC and allies has passed."
  • "From a broader perspective, the recent 28-month high in crude oil last week, which was boosted by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East between Saudi Arabia that have led to a presence in Lebanon as warnings by the Saudi Royal court against Iran have escalated. Another key piece of industry news that provided price volatility, but may prove directionless in the end, is that Norway’s global leading sovereign wealth fund with $1 trillion in assets has proposed shedding their energy-intensive oil and gas stock portfolio. Their energy exposure is worth by nearly $35 billion, and this move would be to reduce concentration risk should an adverse energy price shock happen again. Another concern over the week came when the IEA reduced their demand forecast and said that $60."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 except the following indicators (free to download):


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