The second quarter of 2026 is being shaped by geopolitics in the Middle East, expectations for Fed and ECB interest rates, and high volatility in commodities. The dollar remains dependent on the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, while Fed rate expectations have shifted toward a longer pause because of inflation risks from expensive energy.
💶 EUR/USD
The pair remains near 1.17 and keeps a medium-term sideways structure. The base range for Q2 is 1.1450-1.2050. The nearest resistance is at 1.1850-1.1900. If the pair breaks above this area, it may test 1.2000-1.2050. Support is at 1.1600-1.1650, followed by 1.1450-1.1500. Stronger demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset may return the pair to the lower part of the range. Scenario: neutral with a moderate upward bias above 1.1600.
🟠 Bitcoin BTC/USD
Bitcoin is holding above the key 73,000-75,000 area, but quarterly risks remain broad because it depends on liquidity, ETF flows, and risk appetite. The base range for Q2 is 65,000-98,000. Resistance is at 85,000-88,000. If bitcoin breaks above this area, it may test 92,000-98,000, and with strong capital inflows, 100,000-105,000 may come into focus. Support is at 78,000-80,000, followed by 73,000-75,000 and 65,000-68,000. Scenario: neutral-to-bullish while the price stays above 73,000-75,000.
🛢 Brent Oil
Brent remains the main source of macroeconomic volatility. The base range for Q2 is 90-125 dollars per barrel. Support is at 98-100, followed by 92-95 and 88-90. Resistance is at 110-115, followed by 120-125. De-escalation may return Brent to 90-95, while a new supply disruption or risks around the Strait of Hormuz may push it back to 120-125 and higher. Scenario: neutral-to-volatile, with the key area at 110-115.
🥇 Gold XAU/USD
Gold remains supported by geopolitics, rate expectations, and central bank demand. The base range for Q2 is 4,300-5,200 dollars. Support is at 4,550-4,600, followed by 4,400-4,450 and 4,300-4,350. Resistance is at 4,800-4,900, followed by 5,000-5,050 and 5,150-5,200. A stronger dollar and higher real yields may return gold to 4,400-4,500. Scenario: neutral-to-bullish above 4,550-4,600.
📈 Base Scenarios for Q2
EUR/USD: neutral above 1.1600, range 1.1450-1.2050. BTC/USD: neutral-to-bullish above 73,000-75,000, range 65,000-98,000. Brent: neutral-to-volatile, range 90-125. XAU/USD: neutral-to-bullish above 4,550-4,600, range 4,300-5,200.
The main logic for the quarter: de-escalation would support an oil correction and reduce safe-haven demand for the dollar; a new round of tension would strengthen Brent, the dollar, and gold, but may limit EUR/USD and BTC.
