The past week was driven by central bank decisions and key macroeconomic data, which set the main impulse for markets. The Fed kept rates unchanged, confirming its cautious position and the absence of any rush to ease policy. The ECB and the Bank of England also left their policy parameters unchanged, while the tone of regulators remained restrained, reflecting the balance between slowing economic growth and persistent inflation pressure. The publication of US GDP and the Core PCE index did not provide clear signals, which increased uncertainty. As a result, the dollar failed to form a sustained trend, and markets continued moving within ranges.
💶 EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair closed the week at 1.1720, maintaining positions near the upper boundary of the medium-term sideways range of 1.1400-1.1850. The nearest resistance is located at 1.1810-1.1830. In case of a breakout, as happened in late January, the next target may be the 1.1900-1.1930 area. Support is located at 1.1670-1.1700, followed by the 1.1600-1.1620 zone. Given the continuing range-bound nature of the market, a decline toward this support zone cannot be ruled out. An additional pressure factor may be increased demand for the dollar amid rising geopolitical tensions.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin closed the week at 77,865, continuing to hold above the 73,900-74,000 zone. The market remains in an upward correction phase, although the growth impulse is gradually slowing, and in the second half of April BTC/USD has been moving within a narrow sideways channel of 74,885-79,525. Thus, the nearest resistance is located in the 79,500-80,000 zone. In case of a breakout, the next target may be the 82,000-85,000 area. Reaching 90,000 currently looks unlikely. Support is located at 74,885-75,650, followed by 73,315-74,000 and 70,500-71,200. While the price holds above 74,000, the scenario remains neutral within the range, without ruling out attempts to break its upper boundary.
🛢 Brent Oil
Brent ended the week at 109.20 dollars per barrel, sharply strengthening its growth and rising again above key levels. The nearest resistance is located at 112.00-114.00, followed by 118.00-120.00. Support is located at 105.00-106.00, followed by 100.00-102.00 and 97.00-98.00. Ongoing tension in the Middle East and risks around the Strait of Hormuz continue to support high volatility, so priority should still be given to geopolitical factors, while technical analysis moves into the background.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold closed the week at 4,615 dollars per ounce, correcting against the background of central bank decisions and the dynamics of the US currency. The nearest resistance is located at 4,650-4,700, followed by 4,750-4,800 and 4,860-4,900. Support is located at 4,550-4,580, followed by 4,500 and 4,350-4,400. While the price remains above 4,550, the scenario remains neutral, although a stronger dollar may lead to further decline.
📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week
In the coming week, market attention will shift to macroeconomic data and the assessment of the consequences of central bank decisions. On May 05, US services activity indices (PMI and ISM) will be published. On May 07 and 08, US labour market data will be released. These publications may adjust the movement of the dollar and increase volatility in global markets.
Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – neutral with a risk of decline toward 1.1600-1.1620. BTC/USD – neutral-to-bullish above 74,000. Brent – neutral-to-bullish above 105.00. XAU/USD – neutral with a risk of decline below 4,550.
