Make no mistake: the Trump Administration is in crisis. Convictions of two Trump deputies and an indictment of campaign finance violations are real problems that carry jail terms. This is not hype, Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller is building a legal sledgehammer. Now he can file criminal charges against Trump. Democrats and anti-Trumpists smell blood. They are blocking the advancement of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Their strategy is to win the November mid-term elections to gain control of the House and the Senate. Then, they will try to impeach Trump (although they are unlikely to win over 67 Senators to remove Trump from office. House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi’s final act will be to impeach Trump – falling on the sword as her political career ends.
Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve shows no signs of speeding up rate hikes, further flattening US yield curves. In Europe, the economy should rebound a marginally in Q3. We should see EUR/USD grind higher into 2019.
By Peter Rosenstreich
