Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for August 10 – 14, 2026
Last week confirmed the main risk we mentioned earlier: the dollar stayed under pressure after the central bank decisions and failed to return above 100.00 on the DXY index. The main US labour market report increased doubts about the strength of the economy and supported expectations of a softer Fed policy. As a result, demand for the dollar remained limited, EUR/USD kept the advantage on the buyers' side, bitcoin received moderate support, and gold became the main winner from the change in market sentiment. Oil, in contrast, continued to lose momentum after the July rally, as the geopolitical premium no longer gave the same support.
💶 EUR/USD
The previous moderately bullish scenario for EUR/USD generally worked. The pair started the week near 1.1530 and ended it slightly below 1.1560. The rise was not strong, but the DXY index failed to return above 100.00, keeping the advantage on the euro's side. The nearest support is at 1.1480-1.1500, then 1.1390-1.1400 and 1.1350-1.1360. Resistance is at 1.1560-1.1580, then 1.1620 and 1.1685-1.1700. As long as EUR/USD stays above 1.1480, the scenario remains moderately bullish, but the pair needs weak US inflation or consumption data for a new impulse.
🟠 bitcoin (BTC/USD)
BTC/USD rose slightly during the week: from the 63,000 area to a weekly high of 65,350, and ended near 64,930. The weaker dollar probably supported bitcoin, but the technical picture is still limited. The price came close to the previous resistance area of 65,350-65,570, but did not hold above it. Support is at 63,700, then 62,150-62,630, 61,255-61,575, 60,300-60,680 and 57,700-59,000. Resistance is at 65,350-65,570, then 67,000-67,265 and 70,000. As long as BTC/USD stays below 67,000, the market remains sideways. However, the rise to 65,350 and the weekly close near 64,930 show that the previous bearish bias has clearly weakened. A hold above 65,350-65,570 may open the way to another test of 67,000-67,265.
🛢 Brent Oil
Brent became weaker. On Wednesday, August 5, the price fell to 77.70 and ended the week near 81.50. This confirms that the July bullish impulse has clearly weakened, while the risk of a deeper correction remains relevant. Support is at 80.65, then 77.70-78.00, 75.00-76.00 and 70.25-71.00. Resistance is at 82.60-84.00, then 86.00-88.00 and 89.60-90.00. As long as Brent stays below 84.00, the scenario looks neutral-to-bearish. A return above 86.00-88.00 may strengthen buyers again.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold became the main asset of the week. On August 5, XAU/USD made a strong jump and broke through the 4,165 and 4,200-4,250 resistance levels. On Friday, August 7, it rose above 4,350 to 4,372. The price has not yet held above this area, but the weekly close near 4,342 confirms a strong change in the market picture. Weak US labour market data and a weaker dollar increased demand for gold, as the market started to expect a softer Fed policy. The nearest support is at 4,300, then 4,200-4,250 and 4,150-4,165. Resistance is at 4,350-4,370, then 4,500-4,550. As long as XAU/USD stays above 4,200, the scenario remains bullish, but after such a sharp rise, a correction or consolidation is possible.
📈 Key Events and Likely Trends of the Week
The focus will be on inflation and consumption data: August 12 – US CPI, the Consumer Price Index for July, and German CPI; August 13 – US PPI, the Producer Price Index for July, and UK GDP; August 14 – US retail sales for July. These data may determine whether pressure on the dollar continues, whether the euro receives support, and whether gold keeps rising.
Likely trends of the week: EUR/USD – moderately bullish above 1.1480. BTC/USD – sideways, with an improved picture if the price holds above 65,350-65,570. Brent – neutral-to-bearish below 84.00. XAU/USD – bullish above 4,200, with the risk of a correction after the strong jump.
