USDCAD Technical Analysis 2016, December: bullish to be continuing with 1.3551/1.3588 targets

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.26 12:18

Weekly Outlook: 2016, November 27 - December 04 (based on the article)

The US dollar reached new highs against the euro and the yen, but some profit taking was seen amid the Thanksgiving vaction. We are not back to full business: GDP data in the US and Canada, US consumer confidence and a full buildup to the US Non-Farm Payrolls stand out. 

1. Mario Draghi speaks: Monday, 14:00. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is due to testify on economic and monetary developments following the Brexit vote before the European Parliament’s Economic Committee in Brussels. Draghi noted recently that the ECB will extend its €1.7 trillion bond-purchase program on December, warning that the Eurozone’s weak economy remains clouded by downside risks and heavily reliant on the ECB’s stimulus.
2. US GDP data: Tuesday, 13:30. After three unimpressive quarters, the US economy rebounded in Q3 and advanced at 2.9% according to the initial report, which came out slightly better than expected. The second release is expected to show a small upgrade to 3% annualized growth. Note that significant revisions are common in the US.
3. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00. Consumer morale declined in October to 98.6 compared to 103.5 posted in the prior month, suggesting households remained cautious amid weaker economic growth and pre-election uncertainty. Economists forecasted a decline to 101.5. Most analysts believe this decline was temporary reflecting the nervousness about the looming presidential election. Nevertheless, consumers continue to spend boosting growth. Analysts forecast a rise in consumer confidence to 101.3.
4. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 13:15. The ADP jobs report for October continued to disappoint with a smaller than expected release of 147,000 new positions, the weakest figure since April 2013. Construction and education jobs dropped sharply as the overall trend of job gains continues to weaken. However, job growth remains strong but the pace of growth is slowing. ADP report is expected to show a jobs gain of 161,000 in November.
5. Canadian GDP data: Wednesday, 13:30. The November release showed the Canadian gross domestic product advanced at the slowest pace in three months, rising 0.2% in August compared to 0.4% in July and 0.6% in June. Between August of 2015 and August of 2016, the Canadian GDP has increased a mere 1.3%. Goods-producing industries, the main contributors to GDP, increased by 0.7% from July and fell 0.9% from a year ago. The service sector remained unchanged in August. GDP in Canada is forecasted to rise 0.1% in October.
6. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30. U.S. crude oil stocks declined in the week to Nov. 18 after three straight weeks of gains as imports dropped and refineries hiked output. Crude inventories declined 1.3 million barrels, compared after an increase of 671,000 barrels in the previous week.
7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits edged up from a 43-year low last week, but remained positive, reflecting a tightening labor market. The number of new claims increased by18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 251,000 while economists expected a gain of 241,000. Claims remained below 300,000 for 90 straight weeks. The four-week moving average of claims fell 2,000 to 251,000 last week. The number of new claims is expected to reach 252,000 this week.
8. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 15:00. The US ISM manufacturing index gained momentum in October rising to 51.9 from 51.5 in the previous month. The reading was a bit lower than the expectations of 51.7. Production strengthened to 54.6 from 52.8, but orders declined to 52.1 from 55.1. The employment index returned to growth at 52.9 from 49.7 in the previous month and export orders remained in positive territory for the eighth successive month. The ISM manufacturing index is expected to rise further to 52.1 in November.
9. Canadian Employment data: Friday, 13:30. The Canadian employment market gained 44,000 jobs in October. The increase was entirely due to part-time employment offsetting a loss in full-time positions. The reading was further evidence that Canada is struggling to provide quality, high-paying jobs. The increase in employment was driven by 67,000 additional part-time positions, while full-time jobs plunged by 23,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 7.0% as more people entered the labor market, looking for work. Analysts expected an overall job loss of 10,000. The Canadian employment market is expected to gain only 100 jobs in November and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 7%.
10. US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment rate: Friday, 13:30. The U.S. monthly jobs report showed a smaller than expected jobs gain of 161,000 in October.  While the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.9%. However, hourly pay increased 10 cents reflecting a 2.8% annualized increase. Analysts believe this is a step in the right direction which will enable the Fed to proceed with their rate hike plans. US job market is expected to create 165,000 in November and the unemployment rate is forecasted to remain at 4.9%.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.29 09:04

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoC Governor Stephen Poloz Speech and 34 pips price movement

2016-11-29 00:45 GMT | [CAD - BOC Gov Poloz Speaks]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[CAD - BOC Gov Poloz Speaks] = Speech titled "The Role of Services in Canada’s Economy" at the C.D. Howe Institute Annual Benefactors’ Lecture, in Toronto.

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From official report:

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USD/CAD M5: 34 pips price movement by BoC Governor Stephen Poloz Speech news event

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.29 15:06

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2016-11-29 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

• past data is 2.9%
• forecast data is 3.0%
• actual data is 3.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official release:

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EUR/USD M5: 30 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events

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USD/CAD M5: 33 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.30 15:07

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Gross Domestic Product and 36 pips range price movement

2016-11-30 13:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

• past data is 0.2%
• forecast data is 0.1%
• actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

• "Real gross domestic product rose for the fourth consecutive month in September, growing 0.3%. Higher output in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector was the major contributor to the increase."
• "Goods-producing industries grew by 1.1% as all sectors increased, led by mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction."
  

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USD/CAD M5: 36 pips range price movement by Canada Gross Domestic Product news event

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.28 18:06

Everything Goldman Sachs predicts for 2017 - in one chart

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.01 16:25

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/JPY: ISM Purchasing Managers' Index

2016-11-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 51.9
• forecast data is 52.4
• actual data is 53.2 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report:

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EUR/USD M5: 21 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events

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USD/CAD M5: 30 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events

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USD/JPY M5: 25 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.02 10:32

Trading News Events: Non-Farm Employment Change (adapted from dailyfx)

• "A 180K rise in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) may fuel the bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback and trigger a pullback in EUR/USD should the report put increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to further normalize monetary policy."
• "With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) widely anticipated to lift the benchmark interest rate at the December 14 meeting, a further improvement in labor market dynamics may encourage the central bank to implement higher borrowing-costs in 2017 especially as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment.’ However, Chair Janet Yellen and Co. may make further attempts to buy more time as officials warn ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months,’ and the permanent voting-members may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach going into the year ahead as ‘the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run.’"

Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Economy Adds 180K Jobs or More

• "Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short EUR/USD position."
• "If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position."
• "Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
• "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit."

• "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD position."
• "Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction."

Two-hour H2 price broke 200 SMA to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition.

• If H2 price break 1.0689 resistance level to above on close bar so the price will be started to be reversed back to the bullish market condition.
  
• If H2 price breaks 1.0620 support on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
  
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels waiting for direction.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.02 14:55

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and S&P 500: Non-Farm Payrolls

2016-12-02 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 142K
• forecast data is 177K
• actual data is 178K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report:

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EUR/USD M5: 33 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events

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USD/CAD M5: 38 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events

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S&P 500 M5: pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events