Weekly Outlook: 2016, November 27 - December 04 (based on the article)
The US dollar reached new highs against the euro and the yen, but some profit taking was seen amid the Thanksgiving vaction. We are not back to full business: GDP data in the US and Canada, US consumer confidence and a full buildup to the US Non-Farm Payrolls stand out.
Weekly Outlook for EUR/USD: 2016, November 27 - December 04 (based on the article)
EUR/USD dipped to new lows but did not experience the magnitude of the previous weeks. Fresh inflation figures stand out as we enter the final month of 2016.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2016.07.21 18:16
Introduction to Technical Indicators - Oscillators: RSI, Stochastics, CCI, MACD (based on the article)
Oscillators give traders an idea of how momentum is developing on a
specific currency pair. When price treks higher, oscillators will move
higher. When price drops lower, oscillators will move lower. Whenever
oscillators reach an extreme level, it might be time to look for price
to turn back around to the mean. However, just because an oscillator
reaches “Overbought” or “Oversold” levels doesn’t mean we should try to
call a top or a bottom. Oscillators can stay at extreme levels for a
long time, so we need to wait for a valid sign before trading.
The Relative Strength Index is arguably the most popular oscillator out
there. A big component of its formula is the ratio between the average
gain and average loss over the last 14 periods. The RSI is bound between
0 – 100 and is considered overbought above 70 and oversold when below
30. Traders generally look to sell when 70 is crossed from above and
look to buy when 30 is crossed from below.
StochasticsStochastics offer traders a different approach to calculate price
oscillations by tracking how far the current price is from the lowest
low of the last X number of periods. This distance is then divided by
the difference between the high and low price during the same number of
periods. The line created, %K, is then used to create a moving average,
%D, that is placed directly on top of the %K. The result is two lines
moving between 0-100 with overbought and oversold levels at 80 and 20.
Traders can wait for the two lines to crosses while in overbought or
oversold territories or they can look for divergence between the
stochastic and the actual price before placing a trade.
The Commodity Channel Index is different than many oscillators in that
there is no limit to how high or how low it can go. It uses 0 as a
centerline with overbought and oversold levels starting at +100 and
-100. Traders look to sell breaks below +100 and buy breaks above -100.
MACDThe Moving Average Convergence/Divergence tracks the difference between
two EMA lines, the 12 EMA and 26 EMA. The difference between the two
EMAs is then drawn on a sub-chart (called the MACD line) with a 9 EMA
drawn directly on top of it (called the Signal line). Traders then look
to buy when the MACD line crosses above the signal line and look to sell
when the MACD line crosses below the signal line. There are also
opportunities to trade divergence between the MACD and price.
OPEC Meeting Preview: New Drama Unfolds (based on the article)
Intra-day Brent Crude Oil price broke 200 SMA at 49.54 to below for the reversal to the primary bearish market condition. For now, the price is located within 100 SMA/200 SMA rangging area for the 47.50 support level to be tested for the primary bearish trend to be continuing.
If H4 price breaks 47.50 support level to below on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed with 46.56 target to re-enter.If H4 price breaks 49.54 to above on close bar so the bullish reversal will be started with 49.94/50.82 nearest bullish target.If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.
Weekly Review Fundamentals: Non-Farm Payrolls, GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and OPEC Meetings (based on the article)
EURUSD daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within very narrow s/r levels waiting for the primary bearish trend to be resumed or for the secondary rally to be started.
If the daily price breaks 1.0517 support level to below on close bar so the bearish trend will be resumed.If the price breaks 1.0657 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish market condition will be started.If not so the price will be on bearish ranging withn the levels waiting for direction.
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CNH and US Dollar Index: ECB President Draghi Speech2016-11-28 14:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]
[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = Speech about the European Central Bank's perspective on economic and monetary
developments and the consequences of the Brexit before the European
Parliament's Economic Committee, in Brussels.
From official release:
EUR/USD M5: 14 pips range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speech news events
USD/CNH M5: 29 pips range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speech news events
US Dollar Index M5: range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speech news events
Everything Goldman Sachs predicts for 2017 - in one chart
The Problem for OPEC in Three Charts (based on the article)
USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoC Governor Stephen Poloz Speech and 34 pips price movement
2016-11-29 00:45 GMT | [CAD - BOC Gov Poloz Speaks]
[CAD - BOC Gov Poloz Speaks] = Speech titled "The Role of Services in Canada’s Economy" at the C.D. Howe Institute Annual Benefactors’ Lecture, in Toronto.
From official report:
USD/CAD M5: 34 pips price movement by BoC Governor Stephen Poloz Speech news event
Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
EUR/USD: ranging within 1.0518/1.0684 levels.
is located below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA) in the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:
the price breaks 1.0684 level to above so the local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish trend will be started, , and if the price breaks 1.0518 suppoer level to below so the
bearish trend will be resumed.
is located below 100/200 SMA for the bearish market condition with the
ranging within 1.0518/1.0684 levels waiting for the bearish trend to be continuing or for the rally to be started.
United Overseas Bank is considering the EUR/USD price to be
on ranging market condition within the primary bearish trend.
"We just turned neutral on EUR yesterday and there is no change to the
view. The current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase,
likely within a 1.0550/1.0750 range."