Dollar Index Intra-Day Technical Analysis - bullish reversal or bearish to be resumed?

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Indicators: USDx dollar index

Sergey Golubev, 2013.11.06 15:03

Based on - U.S. Dollar Index - USDX

U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) was introduced in March 1973, when the Bretton Woods system ceased to exist. The index shows the ratio of U.S. dollar against a basket of six major world currencies - the euro is (EUR), Yen (JPY), British Pounds (GBP), Canadian Dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK) and Swiss Franc (CHF). As part of this basket each currency has its own weight:

EUR - 57,6%
JPY - 13,6%
GBP - 11,9%
CAD - 9,1%
SEK - 4,2%
CHF - 3,6%

The composition of the basket of 1973 changed only once - in 1999, when the euro was introduced.

At the time of occurrence of the index had a value of 100 points. Historic lows it reached in March 2008 - 70.7 points, while the maximum value was recorded in February 1985 - 148.1 points. The index traded at the time of the global currency markets - 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. Trading on the Stock Exchange are ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) - The former New York Mercantile Exchange (NYBOT - New York Board of Trade). Moreover, the index is presented in the form of various traded instruments: the exchange funds (exchange traded funds, or ETF), mutual funds (mutual funds), stock options.

The index is calculated as a weighted geometric mean of the above mentioned currencies according to the following formula:

USDXt = 50,14348112 x (EURt) -0,576 x (JPYt) 0,136 x (GBPt) -0,119 x (CADt) 0,091 x (SEKt) 0,042 x (CHFt) 0,036

In the formula, the power coefficients corresponding to the weights of currencies in the basket. Calculation of the index coincides with the data used in calculating the Fed trade-weighted dollar index of currencies of countries which form the main foreign trade turnover of U.S..

Most of the international trade in the U.S. accounts for the euro area (57.6%), followed by Japan - 13.6% United Kingdom - 11.9% Canada - 9.1%, Sweden - and Switzerland 4.2% - 3.6 %.

How to use the dollar index on the forex?

It is important to understand whether you like it or not, dictates that the U.S. dollar trends of major world currencies, so the index is an excellent starting point for determining the strength or weakness of U.S. dollar currency pairs.

As a rule, the change trend of the index leads to changes in the trends of the currency pairs in which the USD and he is present. For example, during an uptrend USDX pairs with direct quote will also increase (eg, USDCHF, USDCAD), a couple from the back - slow down (it EURUSD, GBPUSD). Using technical analysis toolkit, such as candlesticks, support / resistance levels, moving averages, you can get an idea about the strength of the U.S. dollar in terms of long-term trends, the possible long-and short-term reversals, as well as changes in the attitudes of market participants.