Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for US Dollar, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and GOLD
US Dollar - "We are thus headed into another week of uncertainty for the US Dollar, S&P 500, and other key assets. It is worth noting that FX volatility expectations have fallen for the week ahead. Yet it’s likewise clear that a bumpy Sunday market open in China, Japan, and other key markets could change that in a hurry. A US holiday on Monday the 7th may make for relatively illiquid market conditions, and caution is advised on what could be another challenging week for FX traders."
USDCAD - "The range-bound pattern from this week in USDCAD defines the levels of interest for this week. While USDCAD stays within the range, traders should look for low-risk setups to get long in the support zone of 1.3115-1.3160 with profit targets in the 1.3250-1.3300 area. Short positions should be careful, as this flies-in-the-face of the bigger-trend; but resistance being seen in this same 1.3250-1.3300 area could lend itself to additional range positions. Breaks of last week’s high at 1.3350 should be construed bullishly, and traders should then look to buy on dips upon breaks of this resistance."
AUDUSD - "Fueling RBA versus Fed policy divergence bets, building concerns about an FOMC rate hike just around the corner will probably amount to a strong headwind for risk appetite as markets ponder the implications of tightening against a backdrop of slowing global growth and rising asset-price instability. Needless to say, this only compounds of threat of deeper losses for the Australian unit."
NZDUSD - "Fed tightening fears will continue to be a potent catalyst for risk aversion through September. That means a hawkish tone is likely to sink the Kiwi, while a dovish one may offer the currency a lift."
GOLD - "prices look to open next week just above interim support at the 61.8% retracement of the August range at 1114 with a break of the 2015 low-day close at 1096 needed to put the broader downtrend back in control targeting 1067/70. Note that we’re still putting in the monthly opening range – a strategy that has served us well in gold for the past two months. We’ll be looking for a rebound early next week to test the monthly highs with a general bearish bias on the yellow metal sub-1155."
