EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook - the other interesting pair you can make money with

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.13 08:18

BofA Merrill about doubts concerning the ability of the USD to rally further (based on efxnews article)

Bank of America Merrill Lynch is dispalling the doubts about the ability of the USD to rally further and about the EURUSD to resume the bearish market condition. Strong USD skeptics are providing some arguments that USD can not be more stronger than now:

• The Fed do not like stronger USD for rate hike. 
• EU data was improved because of ECB QE. 
• Long-term movement for EURUSD pair is estimated to be 1.25 anyway soon or later.

Yes, positive Eurozone data surprises, and negative US data surprises, but skeptics are missing 2 additional main arguments:

• "According to our estimates from a production function, US total factor productivity (TFP) has been growing the fastest in the G10 group. In contrast, TFP growth has been negative in the Eurozone."
  
• "The Eurozone economy has by far the most negative output gap in the G10 group."

Thus, according to BofA Merrill, the USD will become more stronger compare with EUR and we will see the price as 1.04/1.05 by the end of this year anyway.

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.13 14:20

UBS AG: short-term strategies for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD (based on efxnews article)

UBS AG is a Swiss global financial companymaking currency forecasts and some prediction for EUR/USd and some other pairs. They are often publishing some trade ideas and reviews concerning technicals and fundamentals.

For example, this is their well-known prediction for USDCNY immediate after first CNY devaluation: "We now expect USDCNY trading at about 6.5 by end 2015E instead of 6.3 as previously envisaged, and 6.6 at end 2016E."

So, please find below very short ideas from UBS concerning EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD. Those idea can be valid for tomorrow and for coming week as well:

1. EUR/USD: "remains in the 1.0800-1.1200 range, though it has traded bid since the yuan devaluation. Stay flexible and trade the intraday moves."
2. USDJPY: "With the market calming down in China, we think USDJPY is a buy on dips close to 124, with a stop below 123.50."
   
3. AUD/USD: "has recovered sharply after an initial fall following the yuan devaluation.  Sell any rallies towards 0.7400, with a stop above 0.7425."