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Mirage Trading System - PART 6: SYSTEM RISKS & LIMITATIONS

5 February 2026, 13:34

Ich Khiem Nguyen

Mirage Trading System | Buy Trading Indicator for MetaTrader 5

Mirage Trading System - Trading Systems - 5 February 2026 - Traders' Blogs

PART 6: SYSTEM RISKS & LIMITATIONS

6.1 Disclaimer

Important — Please read carefully.

Mirage Trading System (MTS) is a technical analysis support tool. It is NOT an automated trading system and it is NOT investment advice.

What you should understand	Explanation
No profit guarantee	No trading system can guarantee a 100% win rate.
Past performance ≠ future results	Backtest results do not represent real trading performance.
The final decision is yours	MTS provides information only; you decide when to enter/exit trades.
Risk of capital loss	Forex/CFD trading can result in losing your entire capital.

Legal notice:

This product is not financial, investment, or legal advice.
Users are solely responsible for their own trading decisions.
Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
Consult a qualified financial professional before trading.

6.2 Technical limitations of the system

Timeframe limitations

Timeframe	Reliability	Notes
M1, M5	Low	High noise, more false signals.
M15, M30	Medium	Suitable for experienced scalpers.
H1, H4	High	Recommended for most traders.
D1, W1	Very high	Fewer signals, but higher quality.

Symbol/instrument limitations

Works best on:

XAUUSD (Gold)
Major pairs: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY
Cross pairs: EURJPY, GBPJPY

Use caution on:

Exotic pairs (low liquidity)
Crypto (extreme volatility)
Stocks/Indices (different market structure)

System resource limitations

Component	Limit	Impact if exceeded
MTF Scanner symbols	Up to 150	Lag, timeouts.
MTF Scanner timeframes	7 TF	Longer scan time.
Signals on chart	~500	Performance slowdown possible.
Dashboard rows	50	Not all rows will be displayed.

6.3 Market risks

Unpredictable risks

Risk type	Description	Can MTS handle it?
Unexpected news	NFP, FOMC, war, etc.	NO
Flash crash	Sudden price collapse	NO
Weekend gaps	Market opens far from Friday close	NO
Spread widening	During low liquidity	NO
Slippage	Filled price differs from requested price	NO

Times to avoid trading

Time	Reason
Before major news	NFP, CPI, FOMC can cause sharp volatility.
Late Friday session	Wider spreads, low liquidity.
Early Monday session	Gaps, unstable volatility.
Holidays	Extremely low liquidity.

6.4 Limitations of the liquidity-trap pattern

When the pattern may perform poorly

Situation	Explanation
Extended sideways market	Many consecutive false breakouts.
Extremely strong trend	A real breakout occurs (not a false breakout).
Volatility too low	Pattern is unclear.
Volatility too high	Too much noise.

Realistic win rate

Important: No pattern has a 100% win rate.

Conditions	Expected win rate
No filters	40–50%
With Quality Filter	50–60%
Full filters + best conditions	55–65%

Note: The numbers above are estimates based on backtesting and do not guarantee future results.

Patterns NOT detected

MTS does NOT detect the following:

Single Pin Bar (without an Inside Bar)
Engulfing patterns
Head and Shoulders
Double Top/Bottom
Harmonic patterns
Elliott Waves

MTS ONLY detects: Inside Bar False Breakout (liquidity-trap pattern).

6.5 Limitations of the filters

Quality Filter

Pros	Limitations
Filters out unclear patterns	May miss good signals.
Based on candle structure	Does not evaluate broader context.

Extreme Zone Filter

Pros	Limitations
Avoids overbought/oversold zones	In strong trends, price may keep moving further.
Based on Donchian/ATR logic	Not the same as RSI/Stochastic.

Opposite Filter

Pros	Limitations
Avoids conflicting signals	May miss true reversals.
Keeps consistency	Can block valid signals.

6.6 Risks when using with an EA

Technical risks

Risk	Description	Mitigation
Connection loss	EA does not receive signals	Use VPS, backup connection.
Buffer delay	Buffer data may lag by 1 bar	Use “wait for confirmation” logic.
Incorrect lot size	Wrong position sizing	Validate before trading.
Multiple orders	Opens multiple trades at once	Use a unique Magic Number.

Operational risks

Risk	Description
No human intervention	EA may keep trading during bad news.
Over-optimization	Works in backtest but fails live.
Broker issues	Requotes, rejected orders.

Recommendations when using an EA:

Test on a demo account for at least 1 month before going live.
Limit maximum daily risk (e.g., 3% of the account).
Add a stop mechanism when drawdown is too high.
Monitor regularly—don’t “set and forget”.

6.7 Risk management recommendations

Golden rules

Rule	Details
1% Rule	Do not risk more than 1–2% of your account per trade.
3% Daily	Stop trading if you lose 3% in a day.
10% Weekly	Stop and review if you lose 10% in a week.

Position size formula

Position Size = (Account × Risk%) / (SL pips × Pip Value)

Example:

Account: $10,000
Risk: 1% = $100
SL: 50 pips
XAUUSD pip value (0.01 lot): $0.10/pip

Position Size = $100 / (50 × $10) = 0.20 lot

Pre-trade checklist

Did you check today’s news?
Is the minimum Risk/Reward at least 1:2?
Did you calculate the correct lot size?
Are SL and TP set?
Are you staying within 2% risk?

6.8 What the system cannot do

MTS is NOT

MTS is not	Explanation
An automated trading robot	MTS is an indicator; it does not open/close trades automatically.
A news prediction system	It cannot know when major news will happen.
Fundamental analysis	It relies on price action only.
Automatic money management	You must calculate lot size yourself.
Loss insurance	There is no way to avoid losses 100%.

MTS cannot

Cannot	Reason
Guarantee every trade wins	No system can do that.
Predict with 100% accuracy	Markets always contain randomness.
Replace experience	You must understand market context.
Work offline	Requires MT5 and real-time data.