Press review - page 340

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The Royal Bank of Scotland - After the BoE’s "Super Thursday" (based on efxnews article)

  • "While headline employment slightly missed relative to consensus, the unemployment rate held steady and underemployment rate edged down further."
  • "After the BoE’s “Super Thursday” left the impression that an early 2016 hike (long our base case) is more likely than a late-2015 rate hike, the FOMC appears to reclaiming the top spot on the G10 “hawkish league table” that it held for much of late 2014 and early 2015, and we think that can continue to benefit the USD."
 

Barclays for EURUSD - The Decision Is Taken (based on efxnews article)

Barclays evaluated the recent NFP data and made the conclusion that FOMC has already decided about what to tell during the next meeting. Barclays watched the job data and established the correlation between job market and FOMC decisions concerning the inyerest rate to be changed.

  • "We believe, in line with the FOMC’s rhetoric, that the expected path of the fed funds rate for the next couple of years is probably more important than the actual date of the lift-off. In that regard, wage developments will continue to be monitored by markets to assess the speed of the normalization cycle."
  • "We maintain high conviction in further EURUSD downside in the context of steadily improving US data and a likely September Fed rate hike that remains underpriced."
Thus, the banks is really expecting the interest rate to be changed in September, and this news event depends on the job market data situation.
 
JP Morgan for EUR/USD: ranging within daily triangle support/resistance (based on efxnews article)

JP Morgan estimated the false breakout by bouncing back starting to range between very strong support/resistance levels. Market refused to make necessary breaks to established good stable trend, says JP Morgan.

  • "Market keeps on bouncing back and forth in a range between 1.1071 (daily triangle resistance) and 1.0772/44 (daily triangle support/int. 76.4 %), which needs to be broken to receive fresh directions."
  • "A break above 1.071 would on the other hand be needed to open the door for a minimum recovery to 1.1288."
  • "A break below the main T-zone at 1.0772/44 would re-open Pandora's Box in terms of resuming the long-term downtrend. In this case 1.0072 (76.4 % of the 2000-2008 rally) would only be a minimum target."

Thus, JP Morgan descovered 2 very strong s/r levels:

  • daily ascending triangle with 1.1071 resistance;
  • daily descending triangle with 1.0772/44 support.
It means that the market is on the border waiting for direction.
 

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken - Intraday For EUR/USD and USD/CNH (based on efxnews article)

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB - Swedish financial group with headquarters in Stockholm/Sweden) is continuing intra-day forecast. For now - we are having some analysis for EUR/USD and USD/CNH:

EUR/USD
"The pair moved a tad higher (1.1042) than expected before turning around and falling back lower. A close at current levels (or lower) will create yet another 55d ma band rejection indicating that the sellers still are in control. A sustained break below 1.0926 will sharply up a bearish outlook calling for a swift continuation down to the recent low area."

USD/CNH
"Today’s extremely impulsive move higher has cancelled out the idea that the move up from the 2014 low point was a three wave upside corrective move. Today’s break above 6.3014 makes such a wave count obsolete and instead warns of creating either a more complex upside correction pattern (theoretically targeting the 6.48-area) OR a having entered a third of a third wave (allowing for considerably higher levels over the medium term horizon)."

 

EUR/USD - bulls in control (based on forexlive article)

EURUSD was up and down again for ranging on the back of the China surprise and the news that Greek creditors reached a deal. The price reached the border between bearishand bullish trend and stopped near some key resistance levels such as 1.1113/1.1215/1.1466.


The bulls market is under control as there are few strong resistance levels on the way for the price to be reversed. For example, 200-SMA value is located at 1.25 on weekly chart and at 1.1466 on daily chart so the price should go quite a long way through many levels on the way to possible reversal. Any fundamental news events may move the pair to be down or increase the choppy situation for the downtrend to come later for this pair.

 

Currency Wars with Tim Pesut (based on fxstreet article)


China stirred up the global currency war today with a devaluation of their currency, which could be the first of many. Merlin welcomes Tim Pesut to the show to talk about the ramifications of China’s action and how it may create trading opportunities going forward. The duo also look at several listener questions regarding the EURJPY cross pair and specific trade setups.

 

BofA Merrill about doubts concerning the ability of the USD to rally further (based on efxnews article)

Bank of America Merrill Lynch is dispalling the doubts about the ability of the USD to rally further and about the EURUSD to resume the bearish market condition. Strong USD skeptics are providing some arguments that USD can not be more stronger than now:

  • The Fed do not like stronger USD for rate hike. 
  • EU data was improved because of ECB QE. 
  • Long-term movement for EURUSD pair is estimated to be 1.25 anyway soon or later.

Yes, positive Eurozone data surprises, and negative US data surprises, but skeptics are missing 2 additional main arguments:

  • "According to our estimates from a production function, US total factor productivity (TFP) has been growing the fastest in the G10 group. In contrast, TFP growth has been negative in the Eurozone."
  • "The Eurozone economy has by far the most negative output gap in the G10 group."

Thus, according to BofA Merrill, the USD will become more stronger compare with EUR and we will see the price as 1.04/1.05 by the end of this year anyway.

 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Lahcene Ouled Moussa, 2015.08.13 11:53

We’ve covered several continuation chart patterns, namely the wedges, rectangles, and pennants. Note that wedges can be considered either reversal or continuation patterns depending on the trend on which they form.

To trade these patterns, simply place an order above or below the formation (following the direction of the ongoing trend, of course). Then go for a target that’s at least the size of the chart pattern for wedges and rectangles.

For pennants, you can aim higher and target the height of the pennant’s mast.

For continuation patterns, stops are usually placed above or below the actual chart formation.

For example, when trading a bearish rectangle, place your stop a few pips above the top or resistance of the rectangle.



forex

 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Lahcene Ouled Moussa, 2015.08.13 11:47


That’s a whole lot of chart patterns we just taught you right there. We’re pretty tired so it’s time for us to take off and leave it to you from here…

Just playin’! We ain’t leaving you till you’re ready!

In this section, we’ll discuss a bit more how to use these chart patterns to your advantage.

It’s not enough to just know how the tools work, we’ve got to learn how to use them. And with all these new weapons in your arsenal, we’d better get those profits fired up!

Let’s summarize the chart patterns we just learned and categorize them according to the signals they give.



Read more: http://www.babypips.com/school/middle-school/important-chart-patterns/how-to-trade-chart-patterns.html#ixzz3igdt81mRForex pattern

 

UBS AG: short-term strategies for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD (based on efxnews article)

UBS AG is a Swiss global financial companymaking currency forecasts and some prediction for EUR/USd and some other pairs. They are often publishing some trade ideas and reviews concerning technicals and fundamentals.

For example, this is their well-known prediction for USDCNY immediate after first CNY devaluation: "We now expect USDCNY trading at about 6.5 by end 2015E instead of 6.3 as previously envisaged, and 6.6 at end 2016E."

So, please find below very short ideas from UBS concerning EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD. Those idea can be valid for tomorrow and for coming week as well:

  1. EUR/USD: "remains in the 1.0800-1.1200 range, though it has traded bid since the yuan devaluation. Stay flexible and trade the intraday moves."
  2. USDJPY: "With the market calming down in China, we think USDJPY is a buy on dips close to 124, with a stop below 123.50."
  3. AUD/USD: "has recovered sharply after an initial fall following the yuan devaluation.  Sell any rallies towards 0.7400, with a stop above 0.7425."
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