"The employment report is likely to show another solid month of
job creation in June.
As a result, the unemployment rate will likely lower to 5.4% from 5.5%."
- "Within the components of the establishment survey, we expect private payrolls of 215,000 with the government only adding 5,000. Similar to last month, we expect the goods side of the economy to reveal weaker job creation, consistent with the softer trajectory of industrial production and capital expenditures. Moreover, we have yet to see the end of job cuts in the energy-related sectors."
- "The household survey, which provides the data on the unemployment rate, should also show solid job growth. The three-month average has been a bit softer than nonfarm payrolls, with growth of only 166,000, but the six-month average has been consistent at 244,000. A wildcard is the change in labor force participation. After a sharp gain of 0.11% in May, we look for little change in June, given the volatile nature of the series."