Press review - page 331

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113338
Sergey Golubev  

Bank of America Merrill Lynch about Non-Farm Payrolls on Thursday (based on efxnews article)

  • "The employment report is likely to show another solid month of job creation in June. We look for job growth of 220,000, a slowdown from the 280,000 pace in May but consistent with the recent trend.
    As a result, the unemployment rate will likely lower to 5.4% from 5.5%. With the continued tightening in the labor market, we think average hourly earnings (AHE) will increase a “strong” 0.2%, allowing the yoy rate to hold at 2.3%."
  • "Within the components of the establishment survey, we expect private payrolls of 215,000 with the government only adding 5,000. Similar to last month, we expect the goods side of the economy to reveal weaker job creation, consistent with the softer trajectory of industrial production and capital expenditures. Moreover, we have yet to see the end of job cuts in the energy-related sectors. That said, there should be some support from greater construction hiring given the improvement in homebuilding. On the services side, we look for broad-based expansion in jobs with particular gains in leisure and hospitality and overall business services."
  • "The household survey, which provides the data on the unemployment rate, should also show solid job growth. The three-month average has been a bit softer than nonfarm payrolls, with growth of only 166,000, but the six-month average has been consistent at 244,000. A wildcard is the change in labor force participation. After a sharp gain of 0.11% in May, we look for little change in June, given the volatile nature of the series. Smoothing through, the labor force participation rate has been essentially moving sideways since last fall, suggesting that a cyclical gain has managed to offset the secular downward pull."
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113338
Sergey Golubev  

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken - intraday outlook for EURUSD, USDJPY and USDCAD (based on efxnews article)

EURUSD. 'One day older and none the wiser. The market fell back to mid-body levels and stayed there. Outside 1.1110-1.1245 is needed to end a micro-term stalemate, but we guess this could come with the next headline about Greece.'

USDJPY. 'A key ref at 122.04 was yesterday violated, but bears could ask more of dubious price action around the 122-handle. Dynamic support in the bullish "Cloud" ("Kumo") could inspire some buyers to step back in, but resistance at 123.23 & near the 124-mark should temper any attempt to rally the market back towards key resistance at 124.38\47. Extension below 121.85 would target 121.16/07 next.'

USDCAD. 'The market used the high end of the short-term {Fibo­ adjusted) "Cloud" as support and a spring for extension higher. The 1.2563 "Double-top" is one step closer now and none of our short-term indicators indicate a stretch in the displayed timeframe perspective. Prior 1.2423 resistance is thought to act supportive now. Current intraday stretches are located at 1.2375 & 1.2560. A protective sell-stop on short-term longs could be lifted to breakeven (@1.2360).'

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113338
Sergey Golubev  

Credit Suisse - A “Yes” victory at the 5 July referendum would allow markets to refocus on policy divergence, with negative implications for EUR (based on efxnews article)

"The breakdown in negotiations between the Greek government and its international creditors over the weekend has suddenly cast the possibility of an imminent Greek default in the spotlight, and in the hands of the people of Greece, as they prepare to vote on the extension of the (now expired) bailout program on Sunday 5 July.

Several days into this new chapter of the Euro peripheral saga, and following a missed IMF payment by Greece, markets appear to believe that the likelihood of a systemic outcome is low.


While we do not necessarily disagree with this view, we favor a cautious approach to positioning. Specifically, we see a distinct possibility that conditions of broad uncertainty might persist in the event of a victory of the “yes” vote on Sunday. 

A “Yes” victory at the 5 July referendum would allow markets to refocus on policy divergence, with negative implications for EUR. In the meanwhile, both the likelihood of a potentially systemic event and overall market uncertainty have increased.  

A victory of the “Yes” camp would cause the former to subside, but could have a less than proportionate impact on the latter, in our view.  The prospect of lingering uncertainty would keep demand for "safe haven" currencies supported, especially USD and GBP."

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113338
Sergey Golubev  

Trading News Events: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (based on dailyfx article)

Another 230K rise in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) along with a downtick in the jobless rate may heighten the appeal of the greenback and trigger a near-term sell-off in EUR/USD should the data put increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to remove the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP).

What’s Expected:


Why Is This Event Important:

A further improvement in the labor market may boost bets for a Fed rate hike in 2015 as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment,’ and we may see a growing number of central bank officials adopt a hawkish tone for monetary policy as Chair Janet Yellen remains confident in achieving the 2% inflation target over the policy horizon.

However, the rise in planned job cuts along with the ongoing slack in business outputs may drag on hiring, and a dismal NFP report may prop up the euro-dollar exchange rate going into the holiday weekend as it raises the risk of seeing a further delay in the Fed’s normalization cycle.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Adds 230K Jobs or More; Unemployment Slips to 5.4%

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bearish USD Trade: Employment Report Falls Short of Market Expectations
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily



  • Long-term forecast remains bearish for EUR/USD amid the divergence in the policy outlook, but the pair may continue to consolidate within the wedge/triangle formation from earlier this year as the pair holds above the May low (1.0818).
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1510 (61.8% expansion) to 1.1532 (February high)
  • Interim Support: 1.0970 (38.2% expansion) to 1.1000 (50% retracement)
Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month

PeriodData ReleasedEstimateActualPips Change
(1 Hour post event )
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
MAY 2015 06/05/2015 12:30 GMT 226K 280K -199 -151

EURUSD M5: 179 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event:


MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

GBPUSD, M5, 2015.07.02

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5

GBPUSD M5: 78 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Payrolls news event

GBPUSD, M5, 2015.07.02, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, M5, 2015.07.02

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5

EURUSD M5: 66 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Payrolls news event

EURUSD, M5, 2015.07.02, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113338
Sergey Golubev  

Citibank about levels for EUR/USD to watch into Greek Referendum (based on efxnews article)

"We doubt that sufficient progress may be achieved in the next few days to suspend the referendum.

Any negotiation after the referendum is likely to shift to the approval of a third bailout programme, potentially to cover financing needs up to 2016-17.

The NO lead is likely to shrink further, as capital controls become increasingly disruptive, doubts about PM Tsipras negotiating strategy rise and intra-party tensions within Syriza become increasingly apparent."



'EUR/USD may range trade between 1.0955-1.1277, with downside bias.'

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113338
Sergey Golubev  

AUDIO - Hitting Triple Digits with Steve Bobbitt (based on fxstreet article)

Triple digit moves in the Dow have become much more frequent recently, and interesting technical patterns have emerged as well. Master trader, Steve Bobbitt joins Merlin for a look at these patterns, offering his insights as to what they are signaling for the market going forward. The duo talk about Oil, Syria, S&P, Canadian Dollar and much more!


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113338
Sergey Golubev  
2015-07-03 02:45 GMT (or 04:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Services PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - HSBC Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.

==========

NZDUSD M5: 23 pips price movement by CNY - HSBC Services PMI news event:


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113338
Sergey Golubev  

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken - Long-Term Tech Outlook for EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD and USDCAD (based on efxnews article)

EURUSD: "The market has distanced a long-term overstretch and support at a lower trendline, both likely restricting the maneuverable area below in the short-term timeframe perspective. Should a recent 1.1468 high be taken out. there would be an increased possibility for correctional extension towards 1.1640\1.1830 or even 1.2040 before (down) trend forming forces regains the initiative again."


USDJPY: "The stretch is after all having some impact since the market failed to make further upside progress last month. The monthly candle printed may look insignificant at first sight, but it's a potential bearish prelude, but for it to bite, time spent below 122 is needed - then with a short- medium­ term aim at 118.50/115.55."


AUDUSD: "From a long-term technical point of view not much changed last month. The descending yearly exponentially weighted moving average band (0.8130\0.8500) should continue to cap any attempt to rally the market. Loss of support at 0.7540 would target 0.7010 next."


USDCAD: "An inter-month dip was well responded to last month. Conditions remain bullishly convincing and below 1.30 there is no long-term stretch, so upside medium-term extension should be expected over summer, more after the recent break through short-term resistance at 1.2563. Gains through 1.3070 would target 1.3410\70 next. Loss of medium-term support at 1.1920 would however be reason to review a bullish stance."


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113338
Sergey Golubev  

Deutsche Bank About Before And After The Greek Referendum - strong pressure on the Greek economy irrespective of this weekend's referendum (based on efxnews article)

Sunday’s Greek referendum appears too close to call but irrespective of the outcome there is unlikely to be an immediate resolution to the crisis the next day, says Deutsche Bank.

"A "yes" vote would be significantly more likely to lead to a quicker agreement with the creditors, but not without risks," DB argues.

"A “no” vote would open a wider range of possibilities. This notwithstanding, any agreement would likely require change that leads to a re-building of trust between Greece and its creditors," DB adds.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113338
Sergey Golubev  

A short Cheat-Sheet For Trading Greek Referendum In FX - Credit Suisse (based on efxnews article)

1- "Victory of the “No” camp, would immediately cast markets in uncharted territory. The vote alone might not necessarily trigger a systemic reaction, but we would expect the increase in uncertainty to weigh on EUR and on risk assets, with surging demand for “safe haven” currencies such USD, CHF, JPY and GBP," CS projects.

2- In the event of a “Yes” vote, we think the likely knee-jerk move higher in EURUSD would likely be short-lived.  The victory of the “Yes” camp, would likely have a more limited impact on monetary policy stances outside of the Euro area, in our view. In other words, the removal of the immediate risk of a potentially systemic event would allow markets to refocus on the policy divergence story," CS adds.

3- "Finally, while a “yes” victory would reduce the immediate risk of a Greek exit from the euroarea, many aspects of the post-vote outlook would remain very uncertain. As an example, a minimally reworked extension of the now expired Greek bailout terms could be viewed by markets as insufficient to prevent renewed flaring up of peripheral risk later this year," CS argues.

4- "We remain firmly of the view that this story remains EUR bearish," CS concludes.