NZDUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 18.01 - 25.01: Total Ranging within Primary Bullish and Primary Bearish

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newdigital, 2015.01.16 17:06

Forex Weekly Outlook January 19-23 (based on forexcrunch article)

German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Inflation data in New Zealand, Rate decision in Japan, the Eurozone and Canada, Employment data from the UK and the US and housing data from the US. These are the main market movers on Forex calendar. Join us as we explore the highlights of this week.

Last week, US data failed to raise optimism with a surprise 0.9% drop in retail sales registering their largest decline in 11 months and a 1.0% decline in core sales. In the manufacturing sector the Philly Fed index fell to 6.3 points, while expected to reach 20.3 points. Jobless claims increased unexpectedly to 316,000 from 297,000 crossing to 300,000 line. However, the Empire State index surged to 10 points from 5.3 in the prior month. Will we see better figures this week?

1. Eurozone German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. German investor sentiment edged up in December to 34.9 from 11.5 in November. This was the second consecutive rise, indicating increased optimism for a pickup in Europe’s largest economy. Economists expected a lower figure of 19.8. German economy expanded by a mere 0.1% in the third quarter, bit a boost in consumer spending is expected to improve growth in the final quarter of 2014. German analysts’ sentiment is expected to improve to 40.1.
2. NZ inflation data: Tuesday, 21:45. New Zealand consumer prices increased 0.3% from the second quarter, falling short of the 0.5% rise expected by analysts. On a yearly base, consumer price index rose 1% in the third quarter after a 1.6% rise in the previous quarter indicating slower inflation. The absence of inflationary pressures enabled Governor Graeme Wheeler to keep borrowing costs unchanged for longer. Consumer prices are expected to remain unchanged this time.
3. Japan rate decision: Wednesday. The Bank of Japan voted to keep its monetary policy unchanged at its December policy meeting, increasing its monetary base at an annual pace of JPY 80 trillion. The decision was in line with market forecast. The BOJ noted the improvement in exports and a recovery in industrial output as well as, rising inflation expectations. Rates are expected to remain unchanged this time.
4. UK employment data: Wednesday, 9:30. UK Jobless Claims dropped in November by 26,900 beating expectations for a 19,800 decline. Furthermore, on a quarterly basis, average earnings excluding bonuses edged up 1.6%. UK unemployment in the third quarter fell by 63,000 to 1.96 million indicating an improvement in British labor market. UK unemployment claims are expected to drop 24,200 in December.
5. US Building Permits: Wednesday, 13:30. The number of building permits issued in November fell 5.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.04 million, indicating weakness in construction of single-family homes. However, Analysts forecast the housing sector will maintain its momentum in 2015 as job growth continues and mortgage rates remain accommodative. The number of building permits is expected to increase to1.06 million.
6. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 15:00. The Bank of Canada kept its rate at 1% in December, amid stronger economic recovery in exports and business investment. BoC’s statement was more optimistic than before amid widening expansion on top of strong consumer spending, which may lead to self-sustaining growth. Poloz said the said the output gap is smaller and that the economy has sufficient room to grow before it reached full capacity. Rates are expected to remain at 1%.
7. Eurozone rate decision: Thursday, 12:45. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged in December leaving deposit facility at negative 0.20%. Draghi said the central bank requires more time to assess the impact of dropping oil prices on inflation, growth and wages, before deciding the course of action. Falling energy costs will worsen deflation below the ECB’s target of just under 2%, but at the same time, may help the region’s economy by saving companies and consumers billions of euros. The ECB continued to examine a range of options for quantitative easing in case the measures it has already taken fail to boost prices. The ECB is expected to maintain rates this month.
8. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits jumped last week by 19,000 to 316,000, from a revised 297,000 in the week before. Economists expected claims to rise moderately to 299,000. The sudden increase is typical for the first full week of the year when holiday workers are fired. The volatility makes it difficult for the government to determine whether the number of applications has truly picked up. The four-week moving average increased to 298,000 last week from 291,250. The number of jobless claims is expected to reach 301,000 this week.

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newdigital, 2015.01.17 15:29

NZD/USD forecast for the week of January 19, 2015, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair initially fell during the course of the week but found enough support below to turn things back around and form a hammer. The hammer of course is a supportive candle, but there is a significant amount resistance between here and the 0.80 handle. It is not until we break above there that we are comfortable buying for the longer term, so at this point time we are essentially on the sidelines as the market has been consolidating for some time now. With that, we are just simply observing.

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newdigital, 2015.01.18 12:55

Forex - Weekly outlook: January 19 - 23 (based on investing.com article)

The euro and the dollar pushed higher against the Swiss franc on Friday, a day after an unexpected move by the Swiss National Bank to abandon its currency peg against the euro, while the dollar rose to fresh 12-year highs against the euro ahead of expected monetary easing by the European Central Bank as early as next week.

The euro posted its largest ever single-day decline against the Swiss franc on Thursday after the SNB surprised markets by scrapping the 1.20 per euro exchange rate floor it imposed in September 2011.

The central bank also cut interest rates deeper into negative territory, a move intended to dissuade investors from buying the franc.

SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said Thursday the exchange rate cap had “protected the Swiss economy from serious harm” but added that maintaining the policy was not “sustainable or sensible in the long term.”

EUR/CHF was trading at 0.9930 late Friday, up 1.75% for the day after falling to all-time lows of 0.8696 on Thursday, and ended the week with losses of more than 17%.

USD/CHF was up 2.25% to 0.8586 late Friday, having recovered from the lows of 0.7360 struck in the previous session. The franc still ended the week with gains of 15% against the dollar.

The shock move indicated that the SNB sees a high likelihood that the ECB will implement quantitative easing measures at its upcoming meeting on Thursday.

An interim ruling last Wednesday, which is likely to be accepted by the European Court of Justice, said the ECB was free to pursue a bond purchasing program without legal challenge.

EUR/USD was down 0.55% at 1.1567 in late trade on Friday, after falling to lows of 1.1461 earlier in the day, the weakest since November 2003.

In other trading, USD/JPY added 1.15% to hit 117.46 late Friday, recovering from overnight lows of 115.84.

The diverging monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve, which is poised to raise interest rates and central banks in Europe and Japan has seen the dollar strengthen broadly in recent months.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.57% to 93.05 and notched up its fifth successive week of gains, supported by weakness in the euro.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Thursday’s outcome of the ECB’s policy meeting and the banks post policy meeting press conference will be closely watched.

Meanwhile, China is to release data on economic growth while the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Canada are also to hold monetary policy meetings.

Monday, January 19

• Switzerland is to release data on producer price inflation.
• In the euro zone, Germany’s Bundesbank is to publish its monthly report.
• U.S. markets will remain closed for the Martin Luther King Day holiday.

Tuesday, January 20

• China is to release data on gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth. The country is also to report on fixed asset investment, industrial production and retail sales.
• The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.
• Canada is to publish data on manufacturing sales.
• Later in the day, New Zealand is to release data on consumer price inflation.

Wednesday, January 21

• Australia is to release private sector data on consumer sentiment.
• The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The bank will hold a press conference following the announcement.
• The U.K. is to release its monthly employment report, as well as data on average earnings. Also Wednesday, the Bank of England is to publish its monthly meeting minutes.
• The U.S. is to release data on building permits and housing starts.
• The Bank of Canada is to announce its benchmark interest rate and hold a press conference to discuss the monetary policy decision. Meanwhile, Canada is to report on wholesale sales.

Thursday, January 22

• Spain is to release data on the unemployment rate.
• The ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The rate announcement will be followed by a post-policy meeting press conference with President Mario Draghi.
• The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims.

Friday, January 23

• China is to publish the preliminary reading of its HSBC manufacturing index.
• The euro zone is to publish preliminary data on private sector activity, while Germany and France are to also to publish data on private sector growth.
• The U.K. is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
• Later in the day, Canada is to produce data on retail sales and consumer inflation.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on manufacturing activity and a private sector report on existing home sales.

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newdigital, 2015.01.18 16:45

NZD/USD weekly outlook: January 19 - 23 (based on investing.com article)

The New Zealand dollar declined against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, after data showing that U.S. consumer sentiment jumped to the highest level in 11 years in January overshadowed earlier U.S. industrial production and inflation data.

NZD/USD hit 0.7889 on Thursday, the pair's highest since December 2, before subsequently consolidating at 0.7795 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.37% for the day and 0.56% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.7695, the low from January 15, and resistance at 0.7889, the high from January 15.

In a preliminary report, the University of Michigan said Friday that its consumer sentiment index rose to 98.2 this month, the highest level since January 2004, from 93.6 in December, compared to expectations for a rise to 94.1.

A separate report showed that U.S. consumer price inflation fell 0.4% last month, in line with expectations and after a 0.3% decline in November.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was flat in December, compared to expectations for a 0.1% rise, after a 0.1% uptick the previous month.

Data also showed that U.S. industrial production slipped 0.1% in December, confounding expectations for a 0.1% rise, after an increase of 1.3% in November.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.57% to 93.05 and notched up its fifth successive week of gains, supported by weakness in the euro.

The euro remained under pressure amid mounting expectations that the European Central Bank will embark on full blown quantitative easing as soon as its next policy meeting on January 22.

Elsewhere, NZD/CHF was up 2.19% to 0.6705 late Friday, having recovered from the lows of 0.5781 struck in the previous session.

The franc still ended the week with gains of almost 16% against the New Zealand dollar after the Swiss National Bank said Thursday that it would discontinue its minimum exchange rate of 1.20 per euro, while lowering interest rates further into negative territory.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Thursday’s outcome of the ECB’s policy meeting and the subsequent press conference with central bank governor Mario Draghi.

Traders are also looking ahead to a raft of Chinese economic data later this week, including reports on fourth quarter gross domestic product, as well as data on industrial production and retail sales.

The Asian nation is New Zealand's second-largest trade partner.

Monday, January 19

• U.S. markets will remain closed for the Martin Luther King Day holiday.
  

Tuesday, January 20

• China is to release data on gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth. The country is also to report on fixed asset investment, industrial production and retail sales.
• Later in the day, New Zealand is to release data on consumer price inflation.
  

Wednesday, January 21

• The U.S. is to release data on building permits and housing starts.
  

Thursday, January 22

• The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims.
  

Friday, January 23

• China is to publish the preliminary reading of its HSBC manufacturing index.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on manufacturing activity and a private sector report on existing home sales.

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newdigital, 2015.01.19 07:14

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis January 20, 2015 – Forecast (adapted from fxempire article)

The NZD/USD  is flat in the morning session trading at 0.7796 on low volume with the US closed for a major holiday. Weaker commodity prices, together with a stronger US dollar should continue to weigh on the local currency with last week’s dip. The New Zealand dollar hit a fresh record against the euro amid heightened expectations the European Central Bank will launch a quantitative easing programme at its meeting this week.

ECB President Mario Draghi is this week expected to announce the expansion of Europe’s quantitative easing (QE) asset purchase program to include corporate and sovereign bonds. There is also speculation that the plan may include some sort of compromise following a deal struck with Germany, for the responsibility and risk for buying government bonds to fall on national central banks.

Such a move comes roughly six years after the financial crisis prompted the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve to unleash full-blown QE program aimed at restoring economic growth.

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newdigital, 2015.01.19 19:30

NZD/USD almost unchanged in cautious trade

The New Zealand dollar was almost unchanged against its U.S. counterpart in cautious trade on Monday, as markets were still jittery after the Swiss National Bank's surprise policy move last week.

NZD/USD hit 0.7806 during early European trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7796.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.7744, the low of January 16 and resistance at 0.789, the high of January 16.

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newdigital, 2015.01.20 08:42

• past data is 19
  
• forecast data is n/a
  
• actual data is 23 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - NZIER Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, retailers, and service providers. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment.

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Asian Session Forex Recap – Jan. 20, 2015

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newdigital, 2015.01.20 09:34

Weekend Edition with John O'Donnell (based on fxstreet article)

John and Merlin go over many significant market moving topics including: FXCM, Swiss National Bank, Global Currencies, Crude Oil, Bitcoin, Fiat Currencies, Bonds and Much more! Tune in and get your fix!

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newdigital, 2015.01.20 11:20

• past data is 11.7%
• forecast data is 11.7%
• actual data is 11.9% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. Tends to have a muted impact because the Chinese economy is not heavily reliant on consumer spending.

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China Dec Retail Sales Growth Quickens Unexpectedly

Chinese retail sales growth quickened unexpectedly in December, figures from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Tuesday.

Retail sales rose 11.9 percent year-over-year in December following the 11.7 percent rise in November. Economists had expected sales to increase at the stable rate of 11.7 percent.

On a month-over-month basis, retail sales grew 1.01 percent in December after the 0.90 percent climb in November.

In the January to December period, sales advanced 12 percent over the corresponding period of the previous year.

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newdigital, 2015.01.20 15:20

NZD/USD drops despite strong N.Z. business confidence data (based on nasdaq article)

The New Zealand dollar dropped against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday, despite the release of strong business confidence from New Zealand, as downbeat Chinese economic growth data weighed.

NZD/USD hit 0.7709 during late Asian trade, the pair's lowest since January 15; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7723, declining 0.76%.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.7688, the low of January 14 and resistance at 0.7810, Monday's high.

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newdigital, 2015.01.20 20:47

NZD/USD 0.7600 Support at Risk on Dismal 4Q New Zealand CPI (based on dailyfx article)

• NZD Fails to Benefit From Global Dairy Auction; 4Q CPI to Slow for Second Straight Quarter
• USD/CAD Pushes Fresh Monthly Highs Ahead of Bank of Canada (BoC) Meeting

• NZD/USD shows a limited reaction to the 3.8% rise in Whole Milk Power following the Global Dairy Trade auction; may face additional headwinds over the next 24-hours of trade as the 4Q Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to slow further.
• As the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retains the bearish momentum, downside targets remained favored with the monthly opening low (0.7617) in focus.

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newdigital, 2015.01.21 07:34

• past data is 0.3%
• forecast data is 0.0%
• actual data is -0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

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New Zealand Consumer Prices Dip 0.2% In Q4

Consumer prices in New Zealand eased 0.2 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2014, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday.

That missed expectations for a flat reading following three straight quarters of 0.3 percent gain.

"Lower prices for petrol and vegetables were partly countered by higher prices for international travel and housing-related costs," prices manager Chris Pike said.

Petrol prices (down 5.7 percent) made the largest downward contribution. Excluding petrol, inflation added 0.1 percent in the quarter.

The average price of a liter of 91 octane petrol in Q4 was NZ$2.00, compared with NZ$2.12 in the previous quarter. By the end of the December quarter, petrol pump prices were 7 percent below the average price for the quarter, and as at 16 January were 17 percent below the average for the quarter.

Seasonally lower prices for tomatoes, lettuce, and cucumber influenced the fall in vegetable prices (down 14 percent) - which was a smaller-than-usual December quarter fall following a mild winter. Vegetable prices are now slightly higher than a year ago.

Prices for newly built houses excluding land climbed 1.7 percent overall, with Auckland up 2.8 percent and Canterbury up 1.7 percent. Housing rentals added 0.3 percent overall, with Canterbury up 0.9 percent.

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newdigital, 2015.01.21 14:02

NZD/USD rises off 2-week lows despite weak N.Z. inflation data (based on nasdaq article)

The New Zealand dollar rose against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, pulling away from two-week lows despite the release of disappointing New Zealand inflation data.

NZD/USD hit 0.7783 during late Asian trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7667, gaining 0.35%.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.7620, Tuesday's low and a two-week low and resistance at 0.7781, the high of January 14.

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newdigital, 2015.01.21 22:24

Daily Forex Market Update: NZD/USD Signaling Long (based on forexmagnates article)

Early trading saw the Euro, Pound, Kiwi and Dollar indexes all sell off. The Aussie and Swiss remain relatively flat. From a macro perspective I still like the Kiwi for a cyclical move higher. The Aussie, Euro, Pound and Dollar are also signaling cyclical moves higher but their price action is much more neutral which impacts the risk profile. I’d prefer to see them at a more substantial support level than they are right now.

PRE-TRADE ANALYSIS

The Pre-Trade Matrix has 14 regression signals, seven of those have cyclical support, only the NZD/USD isn’t displaying counter momentum as we head into the US Session. That pair is currently signaling long.

TRADE RECAP

The GBP/JPY and the NZD/CAD were closed in the Asian session for a loss of just over half a percent. The NZD never really went anywhere but the Pound did retrace and eventually came to an adjusted support zone, which, by that time, was into negative territory. This morning I’ve entered the long NZD/USD and will let this grind a while and evaluate again this evening.

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newdigital, 2015.01.22 08:01

• past data is 55.6
• forecast data is n/a
  
• actual data is 57.7 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[NZD - Performance of Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers. Survey of manufacturers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

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"The seasonally adjusted PMI for December was 57.7(a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining).  This was 2.1 points higher than November, and a positive end to the year for the sector."

BNZ senior economist Doug Steel said, "The PMI results for manufacturing are consistent with broader indicators showing that the economy is in good heart. There is a lot to like with activity expanding at a solid clip with no inflation."

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newdigital, 2015.01.22 08:40

Kiwi To Fall In Line? (based on dailyfx article)

The NZD/USD daily chart is beginning to look interesting again. Over the past few months while other developed market currencies have been in a virtual free fall against the Greenback, NZD/USD has held its own and traded in a fairly well defined range. With the exchange rate testing the bottom end of the range today we can’t help but wonder if the Bird is about to fall in line with the rest of the currency world? We say this mostly because of the sentiment picture. This outperformance by the Kiwi over the past few months has seen sentiment towards NZD rise well above 50% bulls on the DSI when most other currencies are sporting bullish sentiment levels closer to 10%. In our view this neutral sentiment profile makes the Kiwi much more vulnerable to a decent move lower if the range lows break as there will be plenty of “fuel” for the decline. The .7607 December low looks key with weakness below needed to trigger this negative scenario.

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newdigital, 2015.01.23 12:13

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Selloff Extends for Fifth Day (adapted from dailyfx article)

• NZD/USD Technical Strategy:Short at 0.7783
• Support: 0.7420, 0.7275, 0.7130
• Resistance:0.7529, 0.7599, 0.7680

The New Zealand Dollar fell against its US namesake as expected, with prices now hitting levels unseen since May 2012. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7420 exposes the 38.2% level at 0.7275. Alternatively, a move above channel floor support-turned-resistance at 0.7529 opens the door for a challenge of the 23.6% Fib at 0.7599.

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NZDUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 18.01 - 25.01: Total Ranging within Primary Bullish and Primary Bearish with .7608 Key Support

newdigital, 2015.01.23 19:56

D1 price broke 0.7678 support level from above to below and this is 0.7460 for now:

So, if you use my suggestion to place sell stop order at 0.7678 so you should have about 200 pips in profit for now.

read technical analysis and make a right decision!