Press review - page 267

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD forecast for the week of January 19, 2015, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair initially fell during the course of the week but found enough support below to turn things back around and form a hammer. The hammer of course is a supportive candle, but there is a significant amount resistance between here and the 0.80 handle. It is not until we break above there that we are comfortable buying for the longer term, so at this point time we are essentially on the sidelines as the market has been consolidating for some time now. With that, we are just simply observing.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CAD forecast for the week of January 19, 2015, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair broke higher during the course of the week, testing the 1.20 level. However, that area offered enough resistance to keep the market underneath it, so pullbacks could be what we see next. Nonetheless, we do think that this market will eventually break above that barrier, and we look at pullbacks as potential value in the USD, and as a result will be looking to buy on dips. We believe that the 1.18 area should offer support, so therefore we think that the market won’t dip too far. Even if it does, 1.15 below is even more supportive.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

GBP/USD forecast for the week of January 19, 2015, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week as you can see, but the one thing that it did in fact show was that the 1.50 level continues to be very supportive. With that being said, we anticipate that this market will then head to the 1.55 level given enough time, and as a result we believe that short-term buyers will probably move this market. We have no interest in selling, so therefore we do see the ability to buy this pair, but longer-term players may have issues with the lack of space.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD forecast for the week of January 19, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair fell during the course of the week, slicing through the massive support at the 1.18 handle. We fell all the way below the 1.15 handle at one time during the week, but found enough support to bounce back over it. With that being said, we could bounce a little bit to test the area near the 1.18 handle for resistance, and as a result we could look for selling opportunities there. As far as buying is concerned, we would need to see this market break back above the 1.20 level in order to start buying long-term.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Forex - Weekly outlook: January 19 - 23 (based on investing.com article)

The euro and the dollar pushed higher against the Swiss franc on Friday, a day after an unexpected move by the Swiss National Bank to abandon its currency peg against the euro, while the dollar rose to fresh 12-year highs against the euro ahead of expected monetary easing by the European Central Bank as early as next week.

The euro posted its largest ever single-day decline against the Swiss franc on Thursday after the SNB surprised markets by scrapping the 1.20 per euro exchange rate floor it imposed in September 2011.

The central bank also cut interest rates deeper into negative territory, a move intended to dissuade investors from buying the franc.

SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said Thursday the exchange rate cap had “protected the Swiss economy from serious harm” but added that maintaining the policy was not “sustainable or sensible in the long term.”

EUR/CHF was trading at 0.9930 late Friday, up 1.75% for the day after falling to all-time lows of 0.8696 on Thursday, and ended the week with losses of more than 17%.

USD/CHF was up 2.25% to 0.8586 late Friday, having recovered from the lows of 0.7360 struck in the previous session. The franc still ended the week with gains of 15% against the dollar.

The shock move indicated that the SNB sees a high likelihood that the ECB will implement quantitative easing measures at its upcoming meeting on Thursday.

An interim ruling last Wednesday, which is likely to be accepted by the European Court of Justice, said the ECB was free to pursue a bond purchasing program without legal challenge.

EUR/USD was down 0.55% at 1.1567 in late trade on Friday, after falling to lows of 1.1461 earlier in the day, the weakest since November 2003.

In other trading, USD/JPY added 1.15% to hit 117.46 late Friday, recovering from overnight lows of 115.84.

The diverging monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve, which is poised to raise interest rates and central banks in Europe and Japan has seen the dollar strengthen broadly in recent months.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.57% to 93.05 and notched up its fifth successive week of gains, supported by weakness in the euro.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Thursday’s outcome of the ECB’s policy meeting and the banks post policy meeting press conference will be closely watched.

Meanwhile, China is to release data on economic growth while the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Canada are also to hold monetary policy meetings.

Monday, January 19

  • Switzerland is to release data on producer price inflation.
  • In the euro zone, Germany’s Bundesbank is to publish its monthly report.
  • U.S. markets will remain closed for the Martin Luther King Day holiday.

Tuesday, January 20

  • China is to release data on gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth. The country is also to report on fixed asset investment, industrial production and retail sales.
  • The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.
  • Canada is to publish data on manufacturing sales.
  • Later in the day, New Zealand is to release data on consumer price inflation.

Wednesday, January 21

  • Australia is to release private sector data on consumer sentiment.
  • The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The bank will hold a press conference following the announcement.
  • The U.K. is to release its monthly employment report, as well as data on average earnings. Also Wednesday, the Bank of England is to publish its monthly meeting minutes.
  • The U.S. is to release data on building permits and housing starts.
  • The Bank of Canada is to announce its benchmark interest rate and hold a press conference to discuss the monetary policy decision. Meanwhile, Canada is to report on wholesale sales.

Thursday, January 22

  • Spain is to release data on the unemployment rate.
  • The ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The rate announcement will be followed by a post-policy meeting press conference with President Mario Draghi.
  • The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims.

Friday, January 23

  • China is to publish the preliminary reading of its HSBC manufacturing index.
  • The euro zone is to publish preliminary data on private sector activity, while Germany and France are to also to publish data on private sector growth.
  • The U.K. is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
  • Later in the day, Canada is to produce data on retail sales and consumer inflation.
  • The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on manufacturing activity and a private sector report on existing home sales.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD weekly outlook: January 19 - 23 (based on investing.com article)

The Australian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as investors digested a mixed bag of U.S. data.

AUD/USD rose to 0.8294 on Thursday, the pair's highest since December 12, before subsequently consolidating at 0.8228 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.18% for the day and 0.31% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8067, the low from January 14, and resistance at 0.8294, the high from January 15.

In a preliminary report, the University of Michigan said Friday that its consumer sentiment index rose to 98.2 this month, the highest level since January 2004, from 93.6 in December, compared to expectations for a rise to 94.1.

However, a separate report showed that U.S. consumer price inflation fell 0.4% last month, in line with expectations and after a 0.3% decline in November.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was flat in December, compared to expectations for a 0.1% rise, after a 0.1% uptick the previous month.

Muted inflation may prompt the Federal Reserve to delay any increases in interest rates to late-2015 from mid-2015.

Also Friday, data showed that U.S. industrial production slipped 0.1% in December, confounding expectations for a 0.1% rise, after an increase of 1.3% in November.

The Aussie was also boosted by the release of strong domestic employment data on Thursday.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said that the number of employed people increased by 37,400 last month, beating expectations for a 3,800 rise, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 6.1% from 6.2% in November. Analysts had expected the unemployment rate to sit at 6.3% last month.

Elsewhere, AUD/CHF was up 2.61% to 0.7072 late Friday, having recovered from the lows of 0.6072 struck in the previous session.

The franc still ended the week with gains of 15% against the Australian dollar after the Swiss National Bank said Thursday that it would discontinue its minimum exchange rate of 1.20 per euro, while lowering interest rates further into negative territory.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.57% to 93.05 and notched up its fifth successive week of gains, supported by weakness in the euro.

The euro remained under pressure amid mounting expectations that the European Central Bank will embark on full blown quantitative easing as soon as its next policy meeting on January 22.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Thursday’s outcome of the ECB’s policy meeting and the subsequent press conference with central bank governor Mario Draghi.

Traders are also looking ahead to a raft of Chinese economic data later this week, including reports on fourth quarter gross domestic product, as well as data on industrial production and retail sales.

The Asian nation is Australia's largest trade partner.

Monday, January 19

  • U.S. markets will remain closed for the Martin Luther King Day holiday.

Tuesday, January 20

  • China is to release data on gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth. The country is also to report on fixed asset investment, industrial production and retail sales.

Wednesday, January 21

  • Australia is to release private sector data on consumer sentiment.
  • The U.S. is to release data on building permits and housing starts.

Thursday, January 22

  • The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims.

Friday, January 23

  • China is to publish the preliminary reading of its HSBC manufacturing index.
  • The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on manufacturing activity and a private sector report on existing home sales.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD weekly outlook: January 19 - 23 (based on investing.com article)

The New Zealand dollar declined against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, after data showing that U.S. consumer sentiment jumped to the highest level in 11 years in January overshadowed earlier U.S. industrial production and inflation data.

NZD/USD hit 0.7889 on Thursday, the pair's highest since December 2, before subsequently consolidating at 0.7795 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.37% for the day and 0.56% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.7695, the low from January 15, and resistance at 0.7889, the high from January 15.

In a preliminary report, the University of Michigan said Friday that its consumer sentiment index rose to 98.2 this month, the highest level since January 2004, from 93.6 in December, compared to expectations for a rise to 94.1.

A separate report showed that U.S. consumer price inflation fell 0.4% last month, in line with expectations and after a 0.3% decline in November.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was flat in December, compared to expectations for a 0.1% rise, after a 0.1% uptick the previous month.

Data also showed that U.S. industrial production slipped 0.1% in December, confounding expectations for a 0.1% rise, after an increase of 1.3% in November.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.57% to 93.05 and notched up its fifth successive week of gains, supported by weakness in the euro.

The euro remained under pressure amid mounting expectations that the European Central Bank will embark on full blown quantitative easing as soon as its next policy meeting on January 22.

Elsewhere, NZD/CHF was up 2.19% to 0.6705 late Friday, having recovered from the lows of 0.5781 struck in the previous session.

The franc still ended the week with gains of almost 16% against the New Zealand dollar after the Swiss National Bank said Thursday that it would discontinue its minimum exchange rate of 1.20 per euro, while lowering interest rates further into negative territory.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Thursday’s outcome of the ECB’s policy meeting and the subsequent press conference with central bank governor Mario Draghi.

Traders are also looking ahead to a raft of Chinese economic data later this week, including reports on fourth quarter gross domestic product, as well as data on industrial production and retail sales.

The Asian nation is New Zealand's second-largest trade partner.

Monday, January 19

  • U.S. markets will remain closed for the Martin Luther King Day holiday.

Tuesday, January 20

  • China is to release data on gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth. The country is also to report on fixed asset investment, industrial production and retail sales.
  • Later in the day, New Zealand is to release data on consumer price inflation.

Wednesday, January 21

  • The U.S. is to release data on building permits and housing starts.

Thursday, January 22

  • The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims.

Friday, January 23

  • China is to publish the preliminary reading of its HSBC manufacturing index.
  • The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on manufacturing activity and a private sector report on existing home sales.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD weekly outlook: January 19 - 23 (based on investing.com article)

The euro touched fresh 12-year lows against the dollar on Friday pressured lower by the prospects of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank, but pushed higher against the Swiss franc, one day after suffering its largest ever single-day decline against the currency.

EUR/USD was down 0.55% at 1.1567 in late trade on Friday, after falling to lows of 1.1461 earlier in the day, the weakest since November 2003.

The diverging monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve, which is poised to raise interest rates and central banks in Europe and Japan, has seen the dollar strengthen broadly in recent months.

EUR/CHF was trading at 0.9930 late Friday, up 1.75% for the day after falling to all-time lows of 0.8696 on Thursday. The pair still ended the week down more than 17%.

The euro posted its biggest ever one day drop against the Swiss franc on Thursday after the SNB surprised markets by abandoning the 1.20 per euro exchange rate cap it imposed in September 2011.

SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said Thursday the cap had “protected the Swiss economy from serious harm” but added that maintaining the policy was not “sustainable or sensible in the long term.”

“The euro has depreciated considerably against the U.S. dollar and this, in turn, has caused the Swiss franc to weaken against the U.S. dollar. In these circumstances, the SNB concluded that enforcing and maintaining the minimum exchange rate for the Swiss franc against the euro is no longer justified,” the central bank said.

The SNB also cut interest rates deeper into negative territory, a move intended to make the franc less attractive to investors.

The move indicated that the Swiss central bank sees a high likelihood that the ECB will implement full blown quantitative easing measures at its upcoming meeting on Thursday.

An interim ruling last Wednesday, which is likely to be accepted by the European Court of Justice, said the ECB was free to pursue a bond purchasing program without legal challenge.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Thursday’s outcome of the ECB’s policy meeting and the bank’s post policy meeting press conference will be closely watched.

Monday, January 19

  • Switzerland is to release data on producer price inflation.
  • In the euro zone, Germany’s Bundesbank is to publish its monthly report.
  • U.S. markets will remain closed for the Martin Luther King Day holiday.

Tuesday, January 20

  • The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, January 21

  • The U.S. is to release data on building permits and housing starts.

Thursday, January 22

  • Spain is to release data on the unemployment rate.
  • The ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The rate announcement will be followed by a post-policy meeting press conference with President Mario Draghi.
  • The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims.

Friday, January 23

  • The euro zone is to publish preliminary data on private sector activity, while Germany and France are to also to publish data on private sector growth.
  • The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on manufacturing activity and a private sector report on existing home sales.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis January 20, 2015 – Forecast (adapted from fxempire article)

The NZD/USD  is flat in the morning session trading at 0.7796 on low volume with the US closed for a major holiday. Weaker commodity prices, together with a stronger US dollar should continue to weigh on the local currency with last week’s dip. The New Zealand dollar hit a fresh record against the euro amid heightened expectations the European Central Bank will launch a quantitative easing programme at its meeting this week.

ECB President Mario Draghi is this week expected to announce the expansion of Europe’s quantitative easing (QE) asset purchase program to include corporate and sovereign bonds. There is also speculation that the plan may include some sort of compromise following a deal struck with Germany, for the responsibility and risk for buying government bonds to fall on national central banks.

Such a move comes roughly six years after the financial crisis prompted the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve to unleash full-blown QE program aimed at restoring economic growth.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD almost unchanged in cautious trade

The New Zealand dollar was almost unchanged against its U.S. counterpart in cautious trade on Monday, as markets were still jittery after the Swiss National Bank's surprise policy move last week.

NZD/USD hit 0.7806 during early European trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7796.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.7744, the low of January 16 and resistance at 0.789, the high of January 16.