D1 price is on strong bearish with breaking 1.3437 support level.
W1 price is located inside Ichimoku cloud below Sinkou Span A line which is the vistual border between primary bullish and primary bearish market condition. W1 price was reversed to bearish and came to Ichimoku cloud for secondary ranging.
is on strong bearish with trying to break 1.3421 support.
D1 price will break 1.3437 support level on close bar so the primary bearish will be continuing.If not so we may see ranging market condition within primary bearish.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on EURUSD price movement for this coming week)
2014-07-28 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Pending Home Sales]
2014-07-29 06:00 GMT (or 08:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German Import Prices]
2014-07-29 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]
2014-07-30 07:00 GMT (or 09:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spanish GDP]
2014-07-30 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - GDP]
2014-07-29 18:00 GMT (or 20:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]
2014-07-31 06:00 GMT (or 08:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German Retail Sales]
2014-07-31 07:55 GMT (or 09:55 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German Unemployment Change]
2014-07-31 09:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - CPI Flash Estimate]
2014-07-31 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Unemployment Claims]
2014-08-01 01:00 GMT (or 03:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]
2014-08-01 01:45 GMT (or 03:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Manufacturing PMI]
2014-08-01 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
2014-08-01 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on EURUSD price movement
SUMMARY : bearish
TREND : ranging
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I expected go Down to at level 61.8 at 1.32220 on weekly chart
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2014.07.26 18:19
Key Fundamental Releases this Week (7/28-8/1)
Last week the USD strengthened in anticipation of this week’s FOMC
meeting. The market has replaced concerns that stemmed from poor Q1 GDP
with USD-positive reactions to Q2 data, which have been in-line or
better than expectations. The euro was a big loser last week as data
continues to suggest the ECB might need further stimulus (QE). This week
will be full of key US fundamentals. Let’s be prepared by taking a look
at this week’s key fundamental releases for the majors.
US Pending Home Sales for June, is forecast to have contracted at
-0.2%. Pending home sales have been volatile and just came off a 6.1%
gain in May. A slide in June is not the end of the world. We had 3
straight months of gains, which is something we have not seen since
2010. On the other hand, a positive reading could be USD-positive in the
near-term, given it has not already rallied sharply before the housing
US Conference Board Consumer Confidence for July is expected to edge
up to 85.5 from 85.2. This reading would reflect the strongest reading
since January 2008. It has risen sharply since the Jan. 2013 low of 58.6
and bodes well for the USD. A reading in line with forecast or better
should keep the USD-buoyed. A reading below 85.0 might weigh slightly on
the USD, but we should keep the implications in the intra-session
German Preliminary CPI for July is forecast to be 0.2% on the month,
after a 0.3% reading in June. The annual reading in June was 1.0%. If
the annual CPI reading for Germany falls below 1.0%, we might see some
more pressure on the EUR. A ready above 1.0% on the year could help EUR
consolidate, but should not be able to help EUR reverse its recent
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for July is a precursor to
Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll, which was hot last month. The ADP report was
hot last month too, and came in at 281K, which was the strongest reading
since December 2011, and was the 3rd strongest reading since the
financial crisis. Economists are expecting July’s job market to have
leveled off, and to have added 234K jobs, which is still a strong
US Advanced GDP for Q2 will probably trump the jobs data in terms of
importance. Q1 GDP was -2.9% at an annualized rate. This seems distant
memory now. We can’t blame the weather anymore in the second quarter,
and manufacturing, sales, and other economic data points for Q2 have not
disappointed. Economists forecast a 3.1% advanced reading. Ability to
show 3.0% and above should help the USD maintain its recent strength. A
reading below 3.0% could be seen as disappointing, and might urge
traders to pare USD’s recent gains.
The Federal Open Market Committee will conclude its monetary
policy meeting and make a statement. It will have the GDP data to talk
about. This is important because after Q1′s dismal growth data, the Fed
showed concern about Q2 data. The market will be on top of the Fed’s
reaction to the Q2 GDP and how it may affect the rate hike time-line,
which is current projected to mid-2015.
Australian Building Approvals for June is forecast to have grown
0.2%, after a strong 9.9% reading in May.The AUD has regained some
strength after seeing Australia’s annual CPI inflation grow from 2.9%
to 3.0% in Q2. The housing data should have limited impact on the
Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate for July is forecast to be 0.5% on the
year. It has been stuck at 0.5% since May. ECB president Mario Draghi
had predicted that inflation was at the bottom when it was 0.5% in
February. So far, his prediction has neither materialized or been
invalidated because the annual CPI inflation is still 0.5%. A drop
below 0.5% will very likely weigh on the EUR because the ECB’s inaction
is based on inflation not dropping further. a drop in inflation will be
further impetus for the ECB to apply more monetary stimulus.
Eurozone’s unemployment rate is expected to stay at 11.6% for the
month of July. There is more room for disappointment because the
prevailing trend has been a steady improvement, and if the reading is
11.5% for example, it would not be such a big surprise. A reading of
11.7% however will buck the trend and provide the ECB with more reason
to loosen monetary policy further.
Canadian GDP for the month of May is forecast to be 0.3%, which
would be the strongest month since January when it was 0.5%. The
monthly GDP was 0.1% for April and March. There has not been any
negative readings so far this year. If we can keep that up, the CAD
should maintain its recent strength (though it consolidated for a couple
of weeks). A negative reading might be needed to hold CAD back and
keep it in consolidation or bearish correction. A reading above 0.5%
can definitely revive CAD-strength.
US Jobless claims was at a 10-year low this week, at 284K. Next
week’s reading is expected to rise back to 306K which would still be at
the lower range of 2014-data. A reading below 300K should be positive
for the USD in the near-term. A reading above 320K might be needed to
hold USD, but only in the intra-session time-frame. This assessment is
assuming that the FOMC did not shake things up and put the USD in a
medium term bearish outlook. We are assuming the USD continues to be
Chinese Manufacturing PMI for July provided by the government, is
expected to improve to 51.4 from 51.0. This would reflect 5 straight
months of steady improvement in manufacturing, and also reflects the
quick recovery after we saw Chinese data slump in 2013. The final
version of HSBC’s Chinese Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 52.0,
which would also reflect the recovery in China’s economy.
Australia’s Producer Price Index is forecast to show inflation of
0.7% in Q2, down from 0.9% in Q1. Q1 PPI inflation compared to Q1 2013
was 2.5%. If this reading increases, we might see some AUD-strength,
and if it declines we should see AUD consolidate. It is still too early
to anticipate any economic data point to be able to put AUD into
reversal, into a bearish market.
UK Manufacturing PMI for July is forecast to be 57.2, slightly
lower than the 57.5 reading in June. This is a second tier data point
and shouldn’t have much impact on the GDP other than in the very
near-term. The market is focused on whether the Bank of England can
raise rates in 2014. Right now lack of wage growth is the concern, so
even a strong improvement in manufacturing will not ease that concern,
nor should a singular worse-than-expected reading add to that concern.
US Non-Farm Payroll report for July will be the key data point to
wrap up the week. The 288K reading for June revived USD strength.
Economists expect about a 230K reading, which is still decent. A
reading above 200K is decent, and if it is above 250K, the Fed should
have more reason to raise rates earlier than mid-2015 rather than
after. A reading below 200K however might bring USD back into at least
some short-term consolidation, especially if it has been gaining
throughout the week.
I think it will be ranging bearish - look at D1 timeframe : stochastic and schaff indicators are on oversold level:
About W1 timeframe - we see the price for crossing Moving Averages indicator with the period 100 :
But if we look at SMA 50/200 crossing (see image below) so we see that it was not bearish condition on D1 timeframe- it was secondary correction within primary bullish: directional SMA with period 200 is indicating uptrend, and Stochastic indicator is on oversold level -
So, it will be ranging week for EURUSD.
newdigital, 2014.07.27 09:50
I think it Will be bullish on weekly chart for these Reason
possible divergence on ADX
I waiting for news to break the Range
And The Same at Day Chart
Month support (2) at 1.34359
Pattern Bullish Crab
Pattern Bullish Black Swan
possible divergence on Momentum
newdigital, 2014.07.27 16:47
The EUR/USD pair fell during the course of the week, clearing the 1.35
level. It now appears that the selling momentum is picking up, and
heading down towards the 1.33 level. The 1.33 level as you can see is
marked on the chart as support, and we feel that the buyers could step
back into the marketplace at that area. Nonetheless, it does appear that
in the meantime we are going to continue falling, and a break below the
1.33 level would be very bearish. Because of this, we don’t have any
interest in buying.
Forming crab pattern for uptrend (EURUSD, H4):
Something Interesting in Financial Video May 2014
newdigital, 2014.05.23 18:35
The Crab Pattern - Harmonic Ratios and Explanation :
The Deep Crab Pattern - Harmonic Ratios and Explanation :
newdigital, 2014.07.27 17:41
This is updated situation with this pattern: uptrend from 1.3428 to 1.3437:
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, H4, 2014.07.28
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
newdigital, 2014.07.28 15:19
Technical Setups For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD - Credit Suisse (based on fxstreet article)
EUR/USD: EURUSD holds a bearish "wedge" and a “head & shoulders” top for 1.3374 initially, then 1.3248.
EURUSD continues to consolidate recent losses, and with minor
resistance levels still as yet still unchallenged and a large bear
"wedge" pattern and now also "head & shoulders" top in place, we
stay directly bearish. We look for further weakness to 1.3399 initially,
then the 50% retracement of the 2013/14 rise at 1.3374. We allow for a
bounce here ahead of our target at 1.3248/28 – the 38.2% retracement of
the entire 2012/2014 uptrend. While we would expect this to hold at
first, bigger picture, we see scope for 1.2755.
Resistance shows at 1.3486/95 initially, above which can see a move back to 1.3531, with 1.3550/53 ideally capping to keep the immediate risk lower.