EURUSD Technical Analysis 2014, 27.07 - 03.08: Bearish - page 3
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
newdigital, 2014.08.01 11:36
Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) (based on dailyfx article)
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) are anticipated to increase another 231K in July, and a positive employment print may produce a further decline in the EUR/USD as it puts increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
The deviation in the policy outlook favors a bearish outlook for the EUR/USD as the European Central Bank (ECB) stands ready to implement more non-standard measures, and the NFP print may generate fresh 2014 lows in the euro-dollar should the release boost the interest rate outlook for the U.S.
The resilience in private consumption along with the marked rebound in economic activity may encourage firms to further expand their labor force, and a better-than-expected NFP print should produce a bullish reaction in the U.S. dollar as puts increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to move away from its zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP).
However, the downturn in business confidence along with the rise in planned job cuts may produce further headwinds for the U.S. labor market, and a dismal employment report may undermine the bullish sentiment surrounding the reserve currency as it raises the Fed’s scope to retain the highly accommodative policy stance for an extended period of time.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: NFPs Rises 231K+; Unemployment Holds at 6.1%
- Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
- If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: Employment Print Falls Short of Market Forecast- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
- Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseEUR/USD Daily
- Remains at Risk for Further Decline as Long as RSI Holds Below 30
- Interim Resistance: 1.3580 (23.6% expansion) to 1.3600 Pivot
- Interim Support: 1.3300 Pivot to 1.3310 (78.6% expansion)
Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month(1 Hour post event )
(End of Day post event)
June 2014 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
EURUSD M5 : 48 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
AUDUSD M5 : 40 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
The U.S. economy added another 288K jobs in June following a revised 224K advance the month prior, while the jobless rate unexpectedly narrowed to an annualized 6.1% from 6.3% in May. The better-than-expected NFP print propped up the greenback, with the EUR/USD slipping below the 1.3625 region, and the reserve currency retained the bullish reaction going into the end of the week as the pair closed at 1.3608.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M5, 2014.08.01
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
EURUSD M5 : 44 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Payrolls news event
my post a bit beyond the scope of this discussion, in time, but I would like to ask, what do you think about fate of euro in the coming years, taking into account such a pattern on the weekly chart.
As can be seen here, where the lines intersect in the years 2020-2021
MetaTrader platform Screenshots
EURUSD, W1, 2014.09.08
MMCIS including, MetaTrader 4, Real