US Dollar May Rise Before Key Data on Firming Consumer Confidence (based on dailyfx article)
July’s Consumer Confidence reading is in focus, with expectations suggesting the index will rise to a six-year high of 85.4. The outcome may help to set the stage for an overstuffed week of high-profile US releases including the FOMC policy announcement, the second-quarter GDP reading and July’s Nonfarm Payrolls number.
The central object of speculation is the length of the time gap between October’s end of the Fed’s “QE3”stimulus program
and the beginning of interest rate hikes. With that in mind, upbeat US
economic outcomes are likely to support the view that tightening will
materialize relatively sooner versus later, pushing the US Dollar higher. Needless to say, soft outcomes are likely to yield opposite result. We remain long the greenback against the Euro as well as the Canadian Dollar.
The Australian Dollar
narrowly underperformed in otherwise quiet Asian trade, sliding 0.13
percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move lower
tracked an overnight decline in S&P 500 index futures, hinting at eroding risk appetite as the catalyst behind selling pressure facing the sentiment-sensitive currency.
2014-07-29 22:45 GMT (or 00:45 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - Building Permits]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
NZD - Building Permits = Change in the number of new building approvals issued. It's a leading gauge of future construction activity because obtaining
government approval is among the first steps in constructing a new
building. Construction is important because it produces a wide-reaching
ripple effect - for example, jobs are created for the construction
workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various
construction services are purchased by the builder
New Zealand Building Permits Climb 3.5% In June
The total number of building consents issued in New Zealand gained a
seasonally adjusted 3.5 percent on month in June, Statistics New
Zealand said on Wednesday - coming in at 1,950.
That follows the 4.6 percent decline in May.
Excluding permits for apartment construction (which totaled 197), building consents were up 2.9 percent.
Trading Video: Dollar at Resistance, S&P 500 at Support Ahead of GDP and FOMC (based on dailyfx article)
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3393; (P) 1.3418 (R1) 1.3434; More....
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.3502 from 1.3700 at 1.3397. As noted before, the medium term trend is reversing. Break of 1.3397 will target 100% projection at 1.3209. On the upside, above 1.3445 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited well below 1.3700 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 1.6039 is viewed as a corrective pattern. One interpretation is that fall from 1.6039 to 1.2329 was the first leg. Price actions from 1.2329 were the second leg, in form of a triangle. In such view, the fifth leg of the triangle pattern could have completed at 1.3993 already. In other words, the decline from 1.3993 is resuming the fall from 1.16039. Medium term outlook will now stay cautiously bearish as long as 1.3700 resistance holds. Break of 1.2755 key support level will raise the chance of an eventual break of 1.1875 low.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9045; (P) 0.9059; (R1) 0.9082; More....
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside. Current rally from 0.8698 is still in progress for 0.9156 key resistance. Break will indicate medium term reversal. On the downside, below 0.9034 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.8958 resistance turned support holds.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9971 are viewed as a correction pattern. the break above 55 week EMA argues that it might be finished at 0.8698 already. Focus is back on 0.9156 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm this case and turn outlook bullish for a test on 0.9971 high. Meanwhile, break of 0.8855 near term support will dampen this bullish view and would extend the correction to 50% retracement of 0.7065 to 0.9971 at 0.8518 and below. In that case, we'll start to look for reversal signal below 0.8518 again.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 172.75; (P) 172.97; (R1) 173.24; More.....
GBP/JPY continues to stay in right range above 172.36 support and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, sustained break of 172.36 support will confirm near term reversal and will turn outlook bearish for 170.95 support next. On the upside, break of 174.54 will suggest that the consolidation from 175.36 might have finished and will turn bias back to the upside for 175.36 and above.
In the bigger picture, the up trend from 116.83 (2011 low) continued to lose upside momentum. This could be seen in bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. And, weekly MACD continued to trend down. There is no clear sign of reversal yet but a medium term top should be near. So, in case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance below 50% retracement retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 183.96 to bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained break of 169.53 support should confirm medium term topping and turn outlook bearish.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.70; (P) 136.81; (R1) 136.98; More...
EUR/JPY continues to stay in consolidation above 136.36 and intraday bias remains neutral. As long as 137.71 resistance holds, deeper decline is still expected in the cross. It's now in the third leg of the pattern from 145.68 and should target 136.22 support. However, break of 137.71 resistance would be the first sign of near term reversal and wold turn bias back to the upside for 139.27 resistance for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, loss of upside momentum was seen in bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. However, EUR/JPY is so far holding above 135.50 key support. Thus, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. Break of 145.68 will extend the up trend from 94.11 towards 76.4% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 152.59 before topping. Meanwhile, break of 135.50 will confirm reversal and target 124.95 support.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6918; (P) 1.6956; (R1) 1.6980; More...
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside for the moment. The break of 1.6952 support is taken as a signal of medium term reversal. This is supported by the break of medium term channel support. Deeper fall should now be seen to 1.6692 support. On the upside, above 1.7000 minor resistance will turn bias neutral. But near term outlook will stay cautiously bearish as long as 1.7058 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. Based on unconvincing medium term momentum, we'd expect strong resistance from 50% retracement from 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside and bring reversal. Sustained break of 1.6692 will indicate medium term reversal and would turn outlook bearish for 1.4813 support.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9365; (P) 0.9390; (R1) 0.9407; More...
AUD/USD's consolidation pattern from 0.9504 continued is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. More corrective trading should be seen with risk of another fall. Below 0.9328 will target 0.9211 support and below In that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.8659 to 0.9504 at 0.9181 and bring rebound. Meanwhile, above 0.9504 will extend the rise from 0.8659 to medium term fibonacci level of 0.9583.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 are viewed as a medium term correction. Recent development argues that it's possibly finished at 0.8659 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.6008 to 1.1079 at 0.8544. Rebound from there would extend higher to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.8659 at 0.9583 first. Sustained break there will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0155 and above. However, break of 0.9080 near term support will dampen this bullish view and would likely extend the correction from 1.1079 to a new low.