2014-08-07 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Employment Change]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity
Australia Jobless Rate Climbs To 6.4%
The unemployment rate in Australia was a seasonally adjusted 6.4
percent in July, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday -
touching a decade high.
The headline figure was well shy of expectations for 6.0 percent, which would have been unchanged from the June reading.
The Australian economy lost 300 jobs to 11,576,600 versus forecasts for an increase of 13,200 jobs after gaining 15,900 in the previous month.
Full-time employment increased 14,500 to 8,077,400 and part-time employment decreased 14,800 to 3,499,200.
But the participation rate inched higher to 64.8 percent, beating forecasts for 64.7 percent, which would have been unchanged.
increased 43,700 to 789,000. The number of unemployed persons looking
for full-time work increased 21,900 to 566,400 and the number of
unemployed persons only looking for part-time work increased 21,800 to
Price & Time Analysis for GOLD (based on dailyfx article)
AUDIO - Volatility Spikes with Steve Moses
The past 2 weeks have spiked the VIX nearly 70%! For a trader this can
be golden, especially for options traders looking to sell options and
collect premium. Master trader, Steve Moses, joins Merlin
for a look at how his trading has changed over the past 2 weeks due to
the increase in volatility. Steve also takes a look at historical market
data and what we should have learned from it!
2014-08-07 11:00 GMT (or 13:00 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the BOE to other banks. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation
- traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates
will change in the future.
Bank Of England Holds Rates Steady As Expected
The Bank of England once again kept its key rate at a record low on
Thursday, sticking to its forward guidance even as the strong pace of
economic recovery has augmented speculation for a rate hike late this
The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep
its key bank rate unchanged at 0.50 percent and the asset purchase
programme at GBP 375 billion.
With the strong economic recovery
and unemployment falling more sharply than estimated, some members of
the panel are likely to have favored a rate hike. The minutes of the
previous meeting also signaled that some policymakers are getting closer
to a rate hike call.
The current 0.50 interest rate is the
lowest since the central bank was established in 1694 and it has heavily
reduced the interest income of savers. The unconventional measures were
announced during the financial crisis to shore up the economy.
several instance BoE Chief Mark Carney said the interest rate will have
to start rising to maintain price stability as the economy normalizes,
but there is no pre-set timing for that action.
may not have been unanimous and a rate hike this year cannot be ruled
out, said Samuel Tombs, a senior UK economist at Capital Economics. Even
so, the outlook of low inflation and sluggish wage growth suggests that
interest rates will rise only gradually.
The minutes, due on
August 20, will give insight into factors that compelled policymakers to
call for an early action. James Knightley, an ING Bank NV economist
said he would expect to see one, possibly two members of the MPC having
voted for a rate hike at today's meeting.
2014-08-08 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Home Loans]
[AUD - Home Loans] = Change in the number of new loans granted for owner-occupied homes. It's a leading indicator of demand in the housing market - most homes
are financed, so it provides an excellent gauge of how many qualified
buyers are entering the market
The total number of home loans in Australia was up a seasonally
adjusted 0.2 percent on month in June, the Australian Bureau of
Statistics said on Friday - standing at 52,153.
That was shy of
forecasts for an increase of 0.6 percent following the downwardly
revised 0.1 percent decline in May (originally called flat).
The value of loans added 1.8 percent on month to A$17.070 billion, following the 0.7 percent contraction in May.
Investment lending dipped 0.3 percent on month to A$10.678 billion after falling 0.9 percent in the previous month.
Currency Wars with Time Pesut
With trading ranges getting smaller and smaller for most of the worlds currencies, Tim Pesut
believes this is the calm before the storm. Global events and tensions
may bring the storm quicker than expected as well! Tim and Merlin
talk about the Euro, Dollar, cross pairs, adaptation and the need for
patience in today’s markets. Merlin also shows the results of John
O’Donnell’s weekly weigh in!
Trading Video: A Bounce to End the Week Unsettles Bears and Bulls
Many of the financial market's
high profile movers of the past week put in for a corrective move to
end the week. The Dow equity index held critical support at the last
recovered from a tentative breakdown and EURUSD put in for the biggest
single-day rally in seven weeks. Yet, conviction seems to be changing.
Rather than doubt showing through immediately in retracements of the
five-year strong speculative drive, we now find the return to status quo
shaded by skepticism. This raises the risk of a serious break in
sentiment and true bearish progress next week. Meanwhile, rate/monetary
policy themes will facilitate volatility for the Dollar, Euro and Pound.
Data from the UK and Eurozone is particularly intense. We talk these
themes and trading in the Weekend Trading Video.
AUDUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)
The Australian Dollar extended its recent declines over the past week
on the back of broad-based risk aversion and disappointing domestic
data. Heightened geopolitical turmoil sapped demand for the
high-yielding currency as traders flocked to the perceived safety of
the Yen and US Dollar. Additional pressure was put on the currency
following an unexpected jump in the local unemployment rate to a 12
Looking ahead, if we see tensions surrounding the Middle East or
Ukraine escalate, the Aussie could face further weakness in the
short-term. However, we have witnessed several flare-ups of
geopolitical tensions in recent months, which have failed to leave a
lasting impact on the currency. This suggests that if the swell settles
from the most recent storm of volatility, the currency may be afforded
some breathing room.
Consumer and business confidence figures are the only noteworthy
pieces of domestic data on the calendar over the coming week. The
leading indicators for the health of the local economy have reflected
some resilience in recent months, yet remain subdued. Another
lackluster set of readings would further reinforce the need for highly
accommodative RBA policy to remain in place.
Despite recent local data softening the Reserve Bank is likely to
retain its preference for a ‘period of stability’ for rates over the
near-term. Based on recent rhetoric from the Board it would take a
material deterioration in incoming economic indicators to re-open the
door to rate cuts. At the same time, policy tightening is likely to be
delayed. Indeed swaps-implied expectations for rates slipped back into
negative territory over the past week. This does little to raise the
carry appeal of the currency and leaves the Aussie in a precarious
Upcoming Chinese Retail Sales and Industrial Production data will also
be on the radar for Aussie traders. Incoming data from the Asian giant
has been relatively positive on balance, which has eased concerns over
a deceleration in economic growth. If the next week’s figures continue
this recent trend it could ease some of the selling pressure facing
AUDUSD is drawing closer towards the 92 US cent handle, which has
been a line in the sand for the pair since late March. If broken, it
would set the stage for a sustained decline to the
psychologically-significant 0.9000 handle. Refer to the US Dollar outlook for insights into how the USD side of the equation may influence the pair.