AUDUSD Technical Analysis 2014, 27.07 - 03.08: Possible Reversal? - page 4

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newdigital, 2014.07.31 10:20

2014-07-31 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Building Approvals]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Building Approvals] = It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining government approval is among the first steps in constructing a new building. Construction is important because it produces a wide-reaching ripple effect - for example, jobs are created for the construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various services are purchased by the builder.

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Australia Building Approvals +16.0% In June

The total number of building approvals issued in Australia climbed a seasonally adjusted 16.0 percent on year in June, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - standing at 15,659.

On a monthly basis, building approvals tumbled 5.0 percent - also missing expectations for a flat reading following the upwardly revised 10.3 percent gain in the previous month (originally 9.9 percent).


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AUDUSD, M5, 2014.07.31

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AUDUSD M5 : 13 pips price movement by AUD - Building Approvals news event

AUDUSD, M5, 2014.07.31, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


 

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newdigital, 2014.08.01 06:12

2014-08-01 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - PPI]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers. It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when producers charge more for goods and services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.

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Australia PPI Gains 2.3% On Year In Q2

Final demand producer prices climbed 2.3 percent on year in the second quarter of 2014, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Friday - slowing from the 2.5 percent increase in the previous three months.

On a quarterly sequential basis, final demand producer prices dipped 0.1 percent after climbing 0.9 percent in the first quarter.


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AUDUSD, M5, 2014.08.01

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AUDUSD M5 : 17 pips price movement by AUD - PPI news event

AUDUSD, M5, 2014.08.01, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


 

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newdigital, 2014.08.01 11:36

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) (based on dailyfx article)

  • U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to Increase 200+K for Sixth Straight Month.
  • Would Mark Longest String of 200+K Prints Since 1997

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) are anticipated to increase another 231K in July, and a positive employment print may produce a further decline in the EUR/USD as it puts increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

The deviation in the policy outlook favors a bearish outlook for the EUR/USD as the European Central Bank (ECB) stands ready to implement more non-standard measures, and the NFP print may generate fresh 2014 lows in the euro-dollar should the release boost the interest rate outlook for the U.S.

The resilience in private consumption along with the marked rebound in economic activity may encourage firms to further expand their labor force, and a better-than-expected NFP print should produce a bullish reaction in the U.S. dollar as puts increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to move away from its zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP).

However, the downturn in business confidence along with the rise in planned job cuts may produce further headwinds for the U.S. labor market, and a dismal employment report may undermine the bullish sentiment surrounding the reserve currency as it raises the Fed’s scope to retain the highly accommodative policy stance for an extended period of time.

How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: NFPs Rises 231K+; Unemployment Holds at 6.1%

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
  • If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: Employment Print Falls Short of Market Forecast
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EUR/USD Daily


  • Remains at Risk for Further Decline as Long as RSI Holds Below 30
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3580 (23.6% expansion) to 1.3600 Pivot
  • Interim Support: 1.3300 Pivot to 1.3310 (78.6% expansion)
Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on EUR/USD during the previous month

Period Data Released Estimate Actual Pips Change
(1 Hour post event )		 Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
JUN 2014 7/03/2014 12:30 GMT 215K 288K -34 -34

June 2014 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

EURUSD M5 : 48 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event



AUDUSD M5 : 40 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event



The U.S. economy added another 288K jobs in June following a revised 224K advance the month prior, while the jobless rate unexpectedly narrowed to an annualized 6.1% from 6.3% in May. The better-than-expected NFP print propped up the greenback, with the EUR/USD slipping below the 1.3625 region, and the reserve currency retained the bullish reaction going into the end of the week as the pair closed at 1.3608.

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

AUDUSD, M5, 2014.08.01

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

AUDUSD M5 : 46 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Payrolls news event

AUDUSD, M5, 2014.08.01, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo



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