Fundamental Market Analysis for 08.06.2026 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY)

EURUSD:

EUR/USD is trading near 1.1525 after a sharp decline at the end of last week. Pressure on the pair remains due to the strengthening of the US dollar: the May employment report came in noticeably stronger than expected, forcing the market to revise its expectations for the Fed rate outlook. Against this backdrop, the euro updated two-month lows, while demand for the dollar is additionally supported by investor caution and energy-related risks linked to tensions in the Middle East.

The situation for the euro remains mixed. According to market expectations, the European Central Bank may tighten policy at its upcoming meeting, but this is not a full-fledged growth driver for the currency. A potential rate increase comes amid weak economic momentum in the eurozone and the risk of faster inflation due to energy prices. Therefore, expectations of a stricter ECB stance are currently only limiting the euro’s decline.

During the day, the pair may remain under pressure if market participants continue to price in higher rates in the US and stay cautious ahead of US inflation data later this week. The base-case scenario is a moderate decline in EUR/USD, as the fundamental advantage currently remains on the side of the US dollar.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1530, SL 1.1560, TP 1.1440

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD is trading near 1.3340, remaining close to three-week lows after the strong US labor market report. The dollar gained support as investors started to factor in a higher probability of a more elevated Fed rate by the end of the year. This creates external pressure on the pound: even a local recovery does not look sustainable while US statistics confirm the strength of the American economy and support demand for the dollar.

The domestic background for the pound also does not provide a solid reason for growth. This week, market attention is shifting to the UK GDP data for April. Expectations of weak economic dynamics increase doubts that the Bank of England will be able to maintain a stricter policy stance without damaging business activity. The market is factoring in the probability of a rate increase, but weak growth makes support for the pound less stable.

The base-case scenario for today is continued pressure on GBP/USD. If demand for the dollar remains high and investors continue preparing for strong US inflation data, the pair may extend its decline. The pound may receive short-term support only if expectations for the UK economy improve clearly, but the current fundamental balance remains in favor of the dollar.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3335, SL 1.3365, TP 1.3245

USDJPY:

USD/JPY is trading near 160.35, holding in the area where market attention is again focused on a possible reaction from Japanese authorities. At the same time, the main fundamental impulse remains on the side of the US dollar. The strong US employment report strengthened expectations of a higher Fed rate, while demand for the dollar as a defensive asset remains supported by geopolitical tensions and elevated energy risks.

The yen remains vulnerable due to the yield gap between the US and Japan. The Bank of Japan may tighten policy at its June meeting, but the market still sees this step as an attempt to contain inflationary pressure and the weakening of the national currency, rather than as a change in the overall picture. In addition, recent Japanese currency interventions have already partially lost their effect, which shows stable demand for the dollar under current conditions.

The base-case scenario for today is cautious growth in USD/JPY if strong demand for the dollar persists. The main risk for buyers is related to statements or actions from Japanese authorities near 160 and above. If there is no direct intervention, the pair may continue moving higher, as the monetary policy gap and revised Fed expectations support the dollar.

Trading recommendation: BUY 160.35, SL 160.05, TP 161.25

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