Fundamental Market Analysis for July 8, 2026 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY)
Event to watch today:
21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes
EURUSD:
The euro starts the day in an environment where lower inflation in the eurozone is again reshaping expectations for the ECB’s next steps. June data showed a slowdown in both headline and core price growth. This makes it harder for the market to price in a quick continuation of rate increases. Energy remains an important factor. Renewed risks around the Middle East could bring cost pressure back, but for the eurozone this is more of a threat to business activity.
The US dollar received support from higher geopolitical tension and investor caution ahead of the Federal Reserve minutes. The earlier weak employment report limited expectations of a more restrictive stance from the US central bank. However, the jump in oil prices has brought inflation concerns back into focus. For EUR/USD, this creates a less favourable setting for the euro.
The main focus is shifting to the difference in the quality of macroeconomic signals. The eurozone faces a combination of softer inflation, fragile growth and sensitivity to energy prices. The US dollar, meanwhile, is supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain cautious in its communication. If the current market backdrop persists, a decline in EUR/USD looks like the more stable scenario, and the sell idea fits the fundamental logic of the day.
Trading idea: SELL 1.1415, SL 1.1445, TP 1.1325
Event to watch today:
21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes
GBPUSD:
The pound enters today’s session with stronger domestic support than the euro. A fresh recruitment survey showed an improvement in temporary hiring and faster starting salary growth. This matters for the Bank of England, which is closely watching wage pressure. Even with slower activity in the services sector, these signals reduce the scope for the central bank to shift toward a softer stance too quickly.
The US dollar remains strong due to geopolitical tension and expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve minutes. This means any recovery in GBP/USD is unlikely to be one-sided. Still, the pound is receiving local support not only from the wage factor, but also from a partial easing of fiscal concerns. The market is assessing the political transition more calmly if the new team keeps budget constraints in place.
Under the baseline scenario, GBP/USD may retain an advantage if investors continue to factor in wage resilience and the Bank of England’s limited room to discuss a rate cut. Risks for the pair are linked to another strengthening of the US dollar and higher oil prices. However, fresh UK data give sterling its own supporting argument. If current conditions remain in place, the buy idea looks justified.
Trading idea: BUY 1.3355, SL 1.3325, TP 1.3445
Event to watch today:
21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes
USDJPY:
The yen remains under pressure again as the Bank of Japan keeps a cautious approach to further rate increases. Comments from a central bank official showed that stronger evidence of inflation supported by domestic demand and wages is needed before taking new steps. This reduces the likelihood of a rapid policy tightening and keeps the interest rate differential in favour of the US dollar.
The US dollar is also supported by increased demand after new geopolitical risks and ahead of the Federal Reserve minutes. For USD/JPY, this factor works through US Treasury yields and interest rate differential trades. As long as US rates remain significantly higher than Japanese rates, interest in the dollar against the yen is likely to persist. The risk of official warnings from Japanese authorities should not be ignored, but on its own it does not remove the dollar’s advantage.
As a result, the baseline scenario allows for further growth in USD/JPY if the market does not receive fresh signals of an imminent response from Tokyo or a more decisive position from the Bank of Japan. The previous three releases for the pair pointed lower, but today’s local picture has changed. The Japanese central bank’s caution and steady demand for the US dollar provide grounds for a buy idea.
Trading idea: BUY 162.35, SL 162.05, TP 163.25
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